The great China growth slowdown is coming. If history is any guide, and if economists Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin have read the numbers right, the sustainable Chinese growth rate is set to decline by at least two percentage points some time around 2015.

　　中国经济增长大减速即将到来。如果历史可以作为参考，如果经济学家Barry Eichengreen、Donghyun Park和Kwanho Shin对数据的解读是正确的，那么中国经济可持续的增长率将在2015年前后下降至少两个百分点。

　　In a paper, the trio identified 58 growth tipping points at which the long term growth rate of gross domestic product drops by at least that amount. For developing countries like China the slowdown generally came when GDP per capita was in the $13,000-$18000 range. The median was $15,058.

　　上述三名经济学家在一篇论文中指出了一个“58%”的增长临界点（译者注：即一国的人均收入达到领先国家的58%）。到达这个临界点时，国内生产总值(GDP)的长期增速至少会下降两个百分点。对于中国这样的发展中国家，通常当人均GDP到达1.3万美元至1.8万美元的区间（中值水平为15058美元）时，增长就会放缓。

　　The precision is spurious, but the idea is sound. The easy and fastest phase of growth lasts as long as unskilled workers can be hooked into a rudimentary industrial economy. The next phase involves less dramatic changes in industrial productivity and a shift towards less productive service businesses. Japan’s economy grew by 9.5 per cent a year from 1963 to 1970; in the following decade the growth rate slowed to 5 per cent a year. In South Korea, the slowdown was from 8.7 to 5.8 per cent.

　　这些数字的精确度并不可信，但中心理念是可取的。只要非技术工人仍能被初级产业经济所吸收，轻松而高速的经济增长阶段就能持续下去。在接下来的一个阶段，工业生产率的变化就不那么惊人了，经济会转为倚重生产率较低的服务性行业。从1963年到1970年，日本经济以每年9.5%的速度增长；而在接下来的十年里，年均增速放缓至5%。韩国的经济增速则从8.7%降至5.8%。

　　Although Chinese incomes are still four years away from reaching the average tipping point, the government seems to be getting ready, lowering the planned growth rate to 7 per cent (down from the current planned 7.5 and the actual almost-10 per cent). There is also more talk of relatively low-growth goals such as improving the welfare net and reducing pollution.

　　尽管中国人的收入水平要达到平均临界点还需要4年时间，但中国政府似乎正在为此做准备——将把经济增长率目标下调至7%（眼下的目标是7.5%，而实际增幅接近10%）。对改善社会福利、减少污染等导致相对低增长的目标，相关讨论也多了起来。

　　If all goes well, the slowdown could be almost painless. A 5-6 per cent GDP growth rate is still fast enough to improve lifestyles quickly. But the change of gear could be very tough on the financial system if too many lenders and investors are counting on more. Even more worrying, fast growth can be followed by almost no growth, if conflicts (war, internal discord) or weak institutions (corruption) prove to be obstacles. Many countries in Latin America and the Middle East spent a generation or more stuck in a social-economic rut. Some have not yet emerged.

　　如果一切顺利，经济减速的过程几乎可以毫无痛苦。5%到6%的GDP增速依然足以迅速改善生活方式。但如果有太多的贷款机构和投资者要仰仗更高的GDP增速，那么这一减速可能会给金融系统带来很大的挑战。更令人担忧的是，如果冲突（战争、内乱）或是制度乏力（例如腐败）构成障碍，快速增长过后可能会出现一个近乎零增长的阶段。在拉丁美洲与中东的许多国家，有近30年的时间都陷在社会和经济的泥潭里，其中一些国家至今都没有走出来。