China is at a critical decision-making juncture, with inflation likely having hit new highs in the past month, even as other indicators are pointing to a slowdown in growth. A debate is now raging over whether the central bank should ease up on its tight monetary policy.

　　ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images 中国正处于一个关键的决策时刻，通货膨胀可能已在过去一个月触及新高，而其他指标则表明增长在放缓。有关央行是否应放松紧缩货币政策的问题正在引发一场激烈的争论。Critics of the People's Bank of China from other ministries and various state think tanks have begun to argue that it has tightened policy too far in its zeal to contain inflation. In particular, they charge that the central bank's series of hikes to the level of required reserves for banks is choking off access to credit for smaller borrowers.

　　中国人民银行遭到许多来自其他政府部门和各类国家智库的人士的批评，这些批评人士已经开始宣称，央行为遏制通胀收紧政策做的太过火了。特别是，他们指责央行一系列上调存款准备金率的举动阻断了较小借贷者获得信贷的通道。

　　Government economist Ba Shusong, for instance, wrote in a commentary piece  on Tuesday in the Economic Information Daily that the central bank should raise rates again--it has done so four times since October--to address inflation fears, but at the same time lower the reserve requirement ratio to create a better credit environment for small-and-medium enterprises, or SMEs. Mr. Ba is deputy director-general of the Financial Research Department of the State Council's Development Research Center, essentially an economic adviser to China's top policy makers in the State Council.

　　AndrewHarrer/Bloomberg2011年5月9日，周一，中国央行行长周小川出席在美国华盛顿举行的中美战略与经济对话的开幕仪式。例如，政府经济学家巴曙松周二在《经济参考报》发表的一篇文章中写道，央行应在适当加息以抑制通胀预期的同时，适当降低准备金率以改善中小企业的信贷环境。央行从去年10月以来已经四次加息。巴曙松是国务院发展研究中心金融研究所副所长，本质上就是国务院最高决策者的经济顾问。

　　Another paper, the China Business News, reported on Monday that some government officials are pushing for a revision of the country's monetary policy stance, to a term that could be translated as “relatively tight, with directed loosening.”

　　《第一财经日报》周一报道说，部分政府官员正在推动中国的货币政策立场向“相对紧缩、定向宽松”转变。

　　This new stance would recognize that relatively tight policy is still needed to keep liquidity in check, while allowing some loosening to give small and medium-sized companies better access to credit, to give local-government financing platforms continued funding, and to boost the auto industry, the newspaper said.

　　该报说，这种新思路将会认可，仍然需要相对紧缩的政策来控制资产流动性，同时允许一定程度的宽松为中小企业提供更好的获得信贷的通道，为地方政府融资平台提供持续的资金支持，并且推动汽车产业的发展。

　　Allies of the central bank, meanwhile, are hitting back against its critics. Li Daokui, an academic adviser to the central bank, told reporters last week that the monetary policy stance “should not and will not” be altered. He said that other measures could be taken to address the concerns of smaller companies, such as special tax breaks and the full legalization of some gray-market lenders that provide finance to them currently.

　　与此同时，央行的支持者则在向批评者还击。央行学术顾问李稻葵上周对记者说，货币政策立场“不应、也不会改变”。他说可以采取其他措施解决小企业的问题，比如针对小企业的特别税收减免、将目前服务于小企业的非正规私人融资公司合法化等。

　　Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting weighed in on Tuesday, essentially agreeing with Mr. Li. "Fortunately, policymakers know that the issue of SME financing should be addressed by changing institutions such as opening up the banking sector instead of loosening monetary policies," he wrote in a note. Mr. Lu expects some loosening of the country's fiscal policy stance, such as additional spending on social housing projects, that could bolster growth.

　　美国银行/美林(Bank of America-Merrill Lynch)经济学家陆挺周二也发表了自己的看法，实际上与李稻葵的观点相同。他在一份报导中写道，幸运的是，决策人士知道，中小企业融资问题应该通过改革机构而不是放宽货币政策加以解决，比如开放银行业。陆挺预计，中国财政政策立场将有一定程度的放宽，比如在保障房项目上的更多支出，财政政策的放宽有望支撑增长。

　　As the debate plays out, confusion reigns in the markets as to the future direction of policy. On Tuesday, a commentary piece in a newspaper backed by the central bank suggested it might slow the pace of tightening. The PBOC may "appropriately slow the pace of policy adjustments and lower the intensity of policy," a reporter for the Financial News wrote in the piece. Despite appearing in a paper backed by the central bank, the commentary piece doesn't necessarily represent its official views.

　　随着论战逐渐展开，围绕政策未来走向的困惑开始在市场上盛行。周二，中国央行支持的一家报纸发表社论，暗示央行可能会放缓紧缩步伐。《金融时报》的记者在一篇文章中说，预计中国央行将适度放缓政策调节节奏、降低政策力度。尽管这篇社论发表在央行支持的报纸上，却不一定代表央行的官方观点。

　　Indeed, other papers had a radically different read on the PBOC's intentions. Citing a PBOC statement on Monday that warned for the umpteenth time about inflation pressures, the Economic Information Daily, which is backed by the state-run Xinhua news service, said an interest rate hike could come this weekend [zh]. The state-run China Securities Journal was more cautious, saying a rate hike is likely this month.

　　实际上，其他报纸对央行的意图有着迥然不同的看法。《经济参考报》援引央行周一一再次就通胀压力提出警告的声明说，本周末可能加息。该报隶属于新华社。《中国证券报》则更为谨慎，说本月可能会加息。

　　Dow Jones Newswires latest poll, last month, found that eight of 10 China economists expect at least one more interest rate increase this year, with most of them predicting it would come late last month or this month.

　　上个月道琼斯通讯社对10位中国经济学家的最新调查发现，有八位预测今年至少会再加息一次，其中大部分预测加息将发生在上个月底或本月。

　　The central bank, notoriously unpredictable and prone to making big announcements on holidays and weekends, could step in any time with a decisive move. Barring that, some clarity may come in mid-July. A raft of economic data, including June inflation and second-quarter gross domestic product growth, are due to be released on July 15. Around the same time, the State Council, or cabinet, is expected to announce the results of a meeting on the official economic policy stance in the second half of the year. Until then, expect further debate and confusion.

　　中国央行是出了名的难以预测，常常在节假日或周末宣布重大举措。央行可能会随时采取决定性的措施。除此之外，7月中旬形势可能会有一定程度的明了。7月15日将公布一系列经济数据，其中包括6月份通货膨胀率和二季度国内生产总值(GDP)增速。大约与此同时，预计国务院将公布有关下半年官方经济政策立场的会议结果。在此之前，预计会有更多的争论和困惑。