When the Hong Kong property market collapsed at the end of 1997, prices fell for nearly six years before bottoming out at one-third of the pre-crash level.

　　当香港房地产市场于1997年底崩盘后，房价下跌走势持续了近6年时间，最后止跌于崩盘前水平的三分之一。

　　The Asia financial crisis and the Sars epidemic were devastating blows to the territory in 1998 and 2002 respectively, but public policy controlling the supply of land and the provision of public housing was widely blamed for exacerbating and prolonging the property market decline. It fanned widespread anger towards the first postcolonial administration and contributed to the eventual ousting of Tung Chee-hwa, then chief executive.

　　亚洲金融危机和非典(Sars)疫情分别在1998年和2002年对香港造成了毁灭性打击，但人们普遍将控制土地供应和公屋供应的公共政策归咎为加剧并延长房地产市场滑坡的罪魁祸首。这激起了人们对首届香港特别行政区政府的普遍愤怒，也导致了首任特首董建华(Tung Chee-hwa)的最终辞职。

　　Today, Hong Kong is the world’s most expensive place to buy a home, according to global property agency Savills, following years of abundant liquidity in mainland China, ultra-low local interest rates and a supply shortage. Local indices show the average price in the secondary market is about HK$6,000 ($769) per square foot – about the same as in 1997, before the market crashed.

　　根据全球房地产机构第一太平戴维斯(Savills)的数据，如今，在经历了多年的来自中国内地的充沛流动性、本地超低利率以及供应短缺后，香港成为全球房价最贵的地区。香港本地指数显示，目前香港二手房均价约为每平方英尺6000港元(合769美元)，与1997年房地产市场崩盘之前的水平大体持平。

　　The question most people are asking is not whether there is going to be a correction, but how big it will be.

　　多数人现在的问题并非房价是否会出现调整，而是调整的幅度会有多大。

　　Transaction volumes and land sale prices have fallen recently, an indication that buyers and developers see risks increasing. Anecdotally, the wealthy mainland Chinese buyers who have been propping up the high end of the market are holding back as a result of Beijing’s tightening policies.

　　成交量和地价最近双双下跌，这表明，购房者和开发商都认为风险在上升。据坊间传言，由于北京方面不断收紧政策，一直支撑香港高端房地产市场的内地富有购房者正停下脚步。

　　The government’s monetary hands are tied as Hong Kong is pegged to US interest rates. However, local banks have been raising mortgage rates since March as Hong Kong dollar loan growth outstrips deposit growth. Local savers are increasingly converting their Hong Kong dollars to the renminbi, while corporate borrowers are happy to pay higher interest rates in Hong Kong as it gets harder to borrow money on the mainland.

　　由于香港盯住美国利率，香港政府的货币政策对此无能为力。然而，自今年3月以来，随着港元贷款增速超过存款增速，香港银行一直在提高抵押贷款利率。越来越多的香港储户正将手中的港元兑换为人民币，企业借款者也乐于支付香港更高的利率，因为它们在内地更难借到资金。

　　Another damper on prices, analysts say, is a change in government policy. Apart from introducing short-term measures to cool the markets – anti-speculation stamp duties and lowering the loan-to-value ratio for high-end residential properties, for example – the government seems determined to increase land supply and stabilise property prices.

　　分析师表示，打压房价的另一个因素是政府政策的变化。除了推出短期措施（例如征收打击投机的印花税，并降低豪宅的贷款与估值比率(LTV)）为房地产市场降温之外，香港政府似乎决意扩大土地供应并稳定房价。

　　It announced this year it would resume regular land sales and provide land sufficient for the annual construction of 20,000 private housing units for the next 10 years. It also said it would provide 15,000 public rental housing units a year to help those who cannot afford to buy a home.

　　香港政府今年宣布，将重启定期土地拍卖，并提供足够的土地，用于在未来10年每年建造2万户私人住宅。香港政府还表示，将每年提供1.5万户公屋，帮助那些买不起房子的人。

　　Donald Tsang, the chief executive, is widely expected to restart the Home Ownership Scheme – subsidised housing that low-to-mid income families can buy. This was suspended in 2002 when property prices were falling. If the government really commits itself to the 20,000 unit target – that is the annual average demand for new flats – it could go a long way to reducing price volatility caused by a big gap between demand and supply, analysts say.

　　外界普遍预期，香港特首曾荫权(Donald Tsang)将重启“居者有其屋”计划(Home Ownership Scheme)，指兴建中低收入家庭可以购买的补贴住房。2002年，随着房价不断下跌，该计划遭到搁置。分析人士表示，如果香港政府真的兑现其每年建造2万户（这是每年新住宅的平均需求量）的承诺，这可能会大大有利于降低因供需巨大缺口导致的价格波动。

　　The government has a monopoly over the availability of new land for property development in the region and its traditional, supply-side approach is to halt land sales when prices are low and then sell a lot of land when prices are considered too high.

　　香港政府垄断着该地区用于房地产开发的新地供应，其传统的供应策略是在房价较低时暂停土地拍卖，然后在房价被认为过高时拍卖大量土地。

　　There are two problems, says Albert Wong, deputy chairman of Midland Holdings, a local estate agency. First, the government tends to make these decisions too late. “We were telling officials four, five years ago that they should start selling land again, but it’s taken them this long to do it, which is why prices have been rising since 2003,” he says.

　　香港房地产经纪公司美联集团(Midland Holdings)副董事长黃锦康(Albert Wong)表示，这其中存在两个问题。首先，政府这些决定往往来得太迟了。他表示：“四五年前我们就告诉官员，他们应开始再次售地，但他们过了这么长时间才动手，这就是房价自2003年以来一直上涨的原因。”

　　Another problem is that, by the time the new flats are built – it usually takes three or four years to build a Hong Kong skyscraper – the market is likely to have changed. “Over 30,000 new private flats were completed in 1999, compared with average annual demand of 20,000. They were legacies of aggressive land sales in previous years designed to cool prices, when prices were still high. Instead of the desired effect, their arrival on the market put additional pressure on already falling prices,” he says.

　　另外一个问题是，到新房建成时（在香港建造一栋摩天大楼通常需要三四年的时间），房地产市场可能已发生了变化。他表示：“1999年，有超过3万户新建私人住宅完工，而每年的平均需求为2万套。它们都是之前几年房价高企时、为房价降温而大规模售地的产物。这些新房的入市非但没有达到预期效果，反而给已在下跌的房价带来了更多的压力。”

　　So how much will prices fall? Given that they have risen about 70 percent since 2009, most forecasts are not pointing to a big crash.

　　因此，香港房价将下跌多少？鉴于自2009年以来房价已上涨约70%，多数预测没有指向大规模崩盘。

　　Andrew Lawrence, Barclays Capital’s head of regional property research, is among the most bearish of analysts. By his estimate, Hong Kong property prices will fall by 25 to 30 percent next year, sparked off by higher borrowing rates.

　　巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)区域房地产研究主管安德鲁?劳伦斯(Andrew Lawrence)是态度最为悲观的分析师之一。根据他的估计，香港房价明年将下跌25%至30%，直接原因是借款利率上升。

　　Yu Kam-hung, executive director of valuation and advisory services at CB Richard Ellis in Hong Kong, is expecting a 10 to 20 percent fall in the next 18 months. “All the major positive drivers of prices are over and done with. There can only be less money coming in from mainland buyers, and interest rates have bottomed,” he says. “But the depreciation of the Hong Kong dollar – which makes local assets relatively cheaper for overseas buyers – and the continued shortage of first-hand property should give some support to the market.”

　　香港世邦魏理仕(CB Richard Ellis)估值和咨询服务执行董事余锦雄(Yu Kam-hung)预计，未来18个月，香港房价将下跌10%至20%。“所有推动房价的主要正面因素已消失。来自内地购房者的资金可能只会减少，而且利率已触底，”他表示，“但港元贬值（这令本地资产对于海外买家而言相对廉价）以及一手房持续短缺，应该会为市场提供一些支撑。”

　　There will be fresh demand from mainland buyers if the Hong Kong currency falls by as much as 10 percent in the coming year, he says. If the devaluation happens at a slower pace – say 3 to 4 percent – the attraction for overseas buyers will not change much, he adds.

　　他表示，如果未来一年港元下跌10%，内地购房者的需求将再度出现。他补充称，如果贬值速度慢一些，例如3%至4%，对海外买家的吸引力将不会出现很大改观。

　　An adjustment is overdue, says Chak Wong, a finance professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “You shouldn’t have a market where people end up paying 12 times their household income for a flat,” he says.

　　香港中文大学(Chinese University of Hong Kong)金融学教授王泽基(Chak Wong)表示，房价早就应该调整。他表示：“房地产市场不应该让人们的购房成本达到家庭收入的12倍。