A few years ago in Hong Kong I met a furniture manufacturer from South Carolina who had outsourced production to China and then been crushed by his Chinese partners, who bumped him aside and started selling directly to the U.S. market.

　　几年前我在香港遇到一位来自美国南卡罗来纳州的家具制造商，他把生产外包给中国企业，后来却遭到了中国合作伙伴的“背叛”：合作伙伴将他撇在了一边，直接向美国市场销售产品。

　　He no doubt would be intrigued to see the tide turning again today.

　　如果今天看到这股趋势再次改变，他毫无疑问会迷惑不已。

　　In the Great Game of global wage and cost arbitrage, bits of some rather surprising industries are drifting back to U.S. shores, and the pace could quicken. Furniture making─usually labor intensive and low-skilled─is just one shocker. On Tuesday Ford said it will build some auto parts in the U.S. that have traditionally been sourced in China. And there's more.

　　在全球寻找工资和成本优势的伟大博弈中，一些行业正相当令人吃惊地退回到美国本土，并且这一步伐可能加快。家具制造业（通常是技术含量较低的劳动密集型产业）只是其中一个令人震惊的行业。周二，福特汽车公司（Ford）宣布将在美国本土制造某些汽车零部件，这些业务通常是外包给中国企业的。类似这样的例子还有很多。

　　Currency hawks in Congress are this week promoting legislation to penalize China for manipulating the yuan. They might want to take note of this trend: The jobs they want to bring home may already be trickling back to the U.S.─emphasis on the trickle.

　　本周，美国国会中汇率问题上的强硬派正在推进一项惩罚中国操纵人民币汇率的法案。他们可能已经留意到了这一趋势：他们想为美国重新创造的就业机会已经在缓缓流入美国──请注意，重点是“缓缓流入”。

　　Bruce Cochrane is emblematic of the incipient shift. He's opening a furniture factory in Lincolnton, N.C., a rare event in a region and industry that have been walloped by outsourcing. Employment in U.S. furniture factories fell by 60% over the last decade.

　　科克伦（Bruce Cochrane）就是刚刚出现的这股生产转移趋势中的典型。他正在美国北卡罗来纳州的林肯顿开设一家家具厂。对于林肯顿地区和受外包严重冲击的家具制造业来说，此举实属罕见。过去10年中，美国家具厂的就业人数减少了60%。

　　Mr. Cochrane says furniture made in China and sold in the U.S. previously had a price advantage of up to 50%. That's often down to 10% to 15% now, in part because wages in China are soaring─up 15% or more a year in some locales. Shipping costs, he says, have doubled from a few years ago.

　　科克伦说，以前在中国制造在美国销售的家具的价格优势曾高达50%，现在这一优势只剩下10%至15%，部分原因是中国的工资水平大幅上升，某些地区一年的涨幅高达15%或以上。科克伦说，和几年前相比，运输成本也增长了一倍。

　　“About 2006 I saw a pivot point, especially with labor costs,” says Mr. Cochrane, who has spent time in China.

　　  赛金说，这些类别的产品现在在中国制造可能更便宜。但随着劳动力、原料和运输成本上涨，优势将会在四年左右的时间里倒向美国。 

　　Hal Sirkin of Boston Consulting Group has identified seven industry categories that are most susceptible to relocating production aimed at the U.S. market (production for the Chinese market would stay chiefly in China). They are furniture, transportation goods, computers and electronics, electrical equipment and appliances, plastics and rubber products, machinery, and fabricated metal products.

　　相关阅读波士顿咨询公司（Boston Consulting Group）的赛金（Hal Sirkin）指出七个最容易因针对美国市场迁移生产而受影响的工业类别（针对中国市场的生产会主要驻扎在中国）。它们是家具、运输商品、电脑和电子产品、电气设备和电器、塑料和橡胶制品、机械以及金属制品。

　　In a study he's releasing Friday, Mr. Sirkin calculates that production that returns to the U.S. could add 800,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector, and up to three million altogether if service-sector support jobs are included.

　　赛金在周五发布的一份研究报告中推算，回到美国的生产可能会为制造业增加80万个就业机会，如果算上服务业后勤类岗位，总数将会高达300万。

　　There have been optimistic prognostications of this sort in the past that fell flat. But a number of forces at work today suggest that this time could indeed be different. 

　　过去这类乐观的预言遭遇过失败。但如今多种起作用的力量表明，这次可能的确不同以往。

　　Among the forces: those ever-rising costs in China; more flexibility from some U.S. unions, resulting in fewer work rules and lower labor costs; more subsidies from some state governments; far higher productivity in the U.S.; and pressure from retailers to shorten turnaround time and cut inventories, prompting more manufacturers to abandon long supply chains to China.

　　 这些因素有：中国不断提高的生产成本；由于美国一些工会变得更有灵活性，美国的工作条例得以简化，劳动力成本出现下降；美国一些州的政府向企业提供了更多补贴；美国的劳动生产率远高于中国；美国零售商为缩短货物周转时间和削减库存而给生产商施加的压力，这一压力促使更多生产商放弃因将生产转移至中国而导致的长供应链。

　　And the yuan. After considerable jawboning by governments around the world, Beijing has allowed its currency to rise roughly 30% against the dollar since 2005. Since a stronger yuan makes China's exports more expensive in foreign markets, that's bad for U.S. manufacturers who serve their global customers from factories in China─and for U.S. consumers hooked on cheap Chinese products.

　　 还有人民币因素。在世界各国政府就人民币汇率问题发出大量呼吁后，北京自2005年以来已允许人民币兑美元升值了约30%。由于人民币升值会提高中国产品在海外市场的售价，这对那些用在华工厂的产品供应全球客户的美国制造商是坏消息，对已经离不开中国廉价产品的美国消费者也不是好事。

　　But for those who want to reclaim production to U.S. shores, it's a plus.

　　但对于那些想把生产业务迁回美国的企业来说，这却是件好事。

　　“We're in the process of bringing everything back from China,” says David Gil, marketing director for Sleek Audio, which makes high-end tunable earphones. Along with rising costs in China, quality control proved a headache.

　　Sleek Audio是一家生产高端可调谐耳机的企业，其营销总监吉尔（David Gil）说，该公司正在把所有在华生产业务迁回美国。中国除了生产成本不断提高外，质量控制也是个令人头疼的问题。

　　The company sells its SA Six earphones for $250, and the price won't change when production moves to Palmetto, Fla., though costs will rise about 20%. Mark Krywko, the chief executive, says better quality control and less lost inventory will offset those increases. “Profits will go up,” he says.

　　该公司每副SA Six耳机的售价是250美元，在公司将生产业务迁回美国佛罗里达州后，耳机的售价不会改变，但生产成本将增加20%。该公司首席执行长克里科（Mark Krywko）说，质量控制的改善和库存损耗的降低将抵消生产成本的上升。他说，公司的利润将会增加。

　　No one in North Carolina's furniture industry, meanwhile, is expecting a return to the flush times. Patricia Bowling of the American Home Furnishings Alliance, the furniture makers' trade group, says some companies that kept production in the U.S. are seeing an uptick in demand because of the rising cost of imports. But she says new factories like Mr. Cochrane's are rare indeed. 

　　不过，在美国北卡罗来纳州的家具行业，没人认为过往的繁盛时光会再回来。美国家具生产商行业组织美国家居用品联盟（American Home Furnishings Alliance）的鲍龄（Patricia Bowling）说，一些坚持在美国生产的企业正在看到市场需求上升的好苗头，因为进口家具的成本在不断升高。但她说，像科克伦那样在美国开设新家具厂的情况却很少见。

　　As for Mr. Cochrane, he's buying state-of-the-art saws, routers and other machinery for his facility, exemplifying why productivity is robust in the U.S.

　　  说到科克伦，他正为自己在美国的工厂购买最新式的锯、刨和其他机械设备，这恰好说明了美国工厂的劳动生产率为什么会那么高。

　　The flip side, though, is employment. When North Carolina's newest furniture factory is up and running, Mr. Cochrane expects to accomplish with 135 employes what it took 250 to do in the past.

　　但这一现象的另一面则是美国工厂雇佣人数的下降。科克伦预计，当他在北卡罗来纳州最新开设的工厂投产后，该厂只需135名员工就能干过去需要250人完成的工作。