AFM知识点汇总—APV原理&优缺点、海外投资项目的 government & business factors

原理：将投资决策和融资决策分开来考虑。允许公司评估项目损益，根据新的融 资方式。这样，在估算时，先仅仅考虑商业风险（用 Kei 折现）；其次才考虑债 务融资和补贴贷款带来的好处(节税，省息）。这样公司可以评估投资活动的价值， 以及因融资方式带来的好处。

APV method separates the investment decision from the financing decision. This will allow company to evaluate the gain or loss associated with the costs and benefits of the new finance.

The value of the project is initially assessed considering only the business risk involved in undertaking the project. The discount rate used is based on the asset beta which measures only the business risk of that company.

The impact of debt financing and the subsidy benefit are then considered. In this way, the company can assess the value created its investment activity and then the additional value created from the manner in which the project is financed.

优点：

1.不同资金不同折算率，商业风险用 Kei,金融风险用 Kd。It allows each different type of cash flow to be discounted at a rate specific to risk of that cash flow.

2.当融资情况较复杂时，此法适用 It also allows the effects of more complex financing situations to be considered

缺点： 

Kei 是用 CAPM 计算得来，所以有 CAPM 的理论缺陷。Discounted rate used in base on CAPM, which has number of theoretical weakness.具体是那些不现实的假设： Zero insolvency costs 零破产成本；投资市场有效；投资人有多样化的投资组合； 完美资本市场；且很难确定 excess return, risk free rate & B 值。

结合案例：

1. 政权更迭，导致目前的税率变化，补贴贷款政策变化；

2. 需要计算如果税率或借款利率变化多少，会让项目的 APV 转成负值。

3. 新政府是否有 remittance 限制？这样折现率不同，导致项目 APV 变化。

4. 考虑项目是否存在 real option，来给项目带来额外的价值。

5. 拓展计划是否符合公司 Strategy?

6. 管理层是否有海外拓展经验？过去的项目的成功率多少？

7. 结合测算数据看，是否延期开展会有更好的价值？

8. 建厂是否会导致当地人民迁徙，是否存在环境和责任方面的顾虑?