China’s latest growth numbers were met with dismay by investors – equity markets plummeted across Asia on Thursday – many of whom believe that Beijing is losing control of an overheating economy.

　　中国的最新增长数据令投资者颇为沮丧——亚洲股市上周四全线下挫。许多投资者认为，北京正逐渐失去对过热经济的控制。

　　But are these concerns fully justified? A closer look at the data suggests not only that the Chinese economy may be beginning to cool down, but that measures taken by authorities to rein in inflation are starting – and will continue – to pay dividends.

　　但这些担忧完全合理吗？更仔细看一下这些数据就会发现，不仅中国经济可能已开始降温，而且中国政府遏制通胀的措施也已开始——并将继续——发挥效用。

　　The data show that China’s gross domestic product expanded at 9.8 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier. Comparing this figure to estimates of the economy’s underlying trend of 6-7 per cent, many analysts have concluded that current growth levels are excessive and inflation is set to continue rising.

　　数据显示，中国第四季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长9.8%。将这一数字与中国6%到7%的潜在增长率进行对比后，许多分析师得出的结论是，中国目前的增长水平过高，通胀势将继续高企。

　　Yet as Gavyn Davies has pointed out, this comparison may not make much sense in China’s case, since its “underlying” GDP is far harder to pin than that of developed countries: "China is passing through a prolonged process of convergence with the developed economies, and inflation is triggered when the speed limits on that convergence are exceeded. These limits are set by factors like the speed at which labour can migrate from rural agriculture to urban agriculture, and the speed at which the capital stock…can be increased to absorb the available labour supply."

　　不过，正如加文?戴维斯(Gavyn Davies)所指出的，就中国而言，这种对比可能意义不大，因为中国的“潜在”GDP远比发达国家更难以确定。“中国正在经历向发达经济体靠拢的漫长过程，这种靠拢一旦超速，就会引发通胀。至于是否超速，则是由多种因素决定的，比如劳动力从农村农业迁向城镇农业的速度，能够吸收有效劳动力供给的资本存量增加的速度。”

　　Davies calculates that the current “speed limit” for the Chinese economy is 8-9 per cent. More importantly, he thinks excess GDP growth actually fell towards the end of 2010 – in stark contrast to most analysts. This is also the case when looking at indicators such as industrial production.

　　戴维斯估计，中国经济目前的“速度限制”是8%到9%。更重要的是，他认为，过快的GDP增长在2010年末实际上已有所下降——这与大多数分析师的观点形成鲜明对比。工业产值等指标的情况也是如此。

　　Inflationary pressures should therefore be easing. This is confirmed by Thursday’s data, which show that headline inflation fell from 5.1 per cent in November to 4.6 per cent in December.

　　因此，通胀压力应该正在缓和。这一点得到了上周四数据的证实——数据显示，12月份的总体通胀率已从11月份的5.1%下降至4.6%。

　　China bears respond that this is likely to be a temporary dip. Excess liquidity in the economy from Beijing’s crisis-induced lending spree will continue to inflation asset bubbles – particularly in the property market – and push up prices, they argue.

　　唱空中国的人士回答说，通胀下降可能只是暂时性的。他们提出，危机促使中国政府大举放贷，向经济中注入了过多的流动性，这些流动性将继续吹大资产泡沫——尤其是在房地产市场——推高价格。

　　It is true that there is an overhang of excessive liquidity growth in China. But there are indications that some of remedial measures taken by Beijing – such as reserve requirement hikes, lending limits and interest rate rises – are bearing fruit.

　　的确，中国存在流动性过度增长的问题。但有迹象表明，中国政府采取的一些补救措施（诸如上调存款准备金率，限制放贷，上调利率等），已经开始见效。

　　According to Thursday’s data, growth in outstanding loans fell by around $200bn in the 2010 compared with 2009, while growth in outstanding deposits fell by around $170bn. This is consistent with a recent drop in property sales growth across the country and falling house price inflation.

　　根据上周四的数据，2010年，中国贷款余额较2009年少增加了约2000亿美元，各项存款余额少增约1700亿美元。这与最近全国房屋销售下滑及房价增幅下降的情况是一致的。

　　Equally importantly, growth of the broad money supply (M2) was 19.7 per cent in December 2010, 8 percentage points lower than at at the end of 2009. The growth of narrow money (M1), meanwhile, fell by an even steeper 11.2 percentage points.

　　同样重要的是，去年12月，广义货币供应(M2)的增幅为19.7%，同比回落8个百分点。狭义货币供应(M1)的增幅回落更大，为11.2个百分点。

　　Liquidity growth is still high, admittedly, but the trend is in the right direction. And with further measures on the way, there are strong grounds for believing that Beijing will succeed in capping credit and monetary growth over the next 12 months, bringing inflation down to a manageable level.

　　流动性增长虽然依旧很高，但趋势是对的。随着更多措施的逐步出台，我们有充足的理由相信，在未来的12个月内，中国政府将成功抑制信贷和货币增长，将通胀拉低至可控制的水平。

　　HSBC expects credit growth to be reduced to 16 per cent in 2011 through a range of “sticks” to rein in bank lending, including punitive rates on central bank bills for banks that lend too much. It also expects 200 basis points of RRR hikes, which will freeze more than $210bn of liquidity in the Chinese banking system.

　　汇丰银行(HSBC)预计，通过一系列抑制银行放贷的“大棒”，包括以“惩罚性利率”向放贷过多的银行发行定向央票，今年的信贷增长将会降至16%。该行还预计，存款准备金率会上调200个基点，从而冻结中国银行系统中逾2100亿美元的流动性。

　　Combined with supply-side measures to control rising food prices, these measures are “likely to start slowing inflation meaningfully by the middle of the year”, says HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin.

　　汇丰银行大中华区首席经济学家屈宏斌表示，加上抑制食品价格上涨的供给方面的措施，这些措施“到年中可能会有效减缓通胀。”

　　This is a view shared with Societe Generale’s Cross Asset research team, which believes that inflation could start its slow descent towards more normal levels as soon as the end of the first quarter of 2011: "Inflation risk is skewed to the upside, but we expect continued, careful policy tightening by authorities. Interest rate hikes should be more evident in 2011, while other policy options (loan quotas, RRR changes) continue to be pursued…We attribute a 70 per cent probability to this scenario."

　　 这个观点得到了法国兴业银行(Société Générale)的认同。法国兴业银行相信，到今年一季度末，通胀就会开始向较为正常的水平逐渐回落。“通胀风险偏于上行，但我们预期相关政府部门会继续实施谨慎的收紧政策。2011年加息的可能性加大，其它政策选择（贷款额度、调整存款准备金率）也将继续使用……我们认为这种情况发生的可能性为70%。”

　　But will growth be compromised in the process? No, says Hongbin, who points out that credit growth of 16 per cent will provide sufficient funds to cover the more than 100,000 ongoing infrastructure projects in the country.

　　但这一进程会损害增长吗？屈宏斌表示不会。他指出，16%的信贷增长，将足够保证中国逾10万个在建基础设施项目所需资金。

　　Further, and contrary to common economic wisdom, rate hikes may even stimulate consumer spending by making China’s high proportion of savers $11.4bn better off.

　　另外，与普遍的经济观点相反，加息甚至可能会刺激消费者支出，因为它会让中国高比例的储户增加114亿美元的经济收入。

　　The overall message is clear: the Chinese economy, though somewhat erratically and incrementally, is moving in the right direction. For the moment, at least, the market’s cries of pain ring hollow.

　　总体信息很明确：尽管有些不稳定，尽管是渐进式的，但中国经济正向着正确的方向行进。至少眼下，市场的哀嚎听上去有些空洞。