How much further can the dollar plummet?

　　美元还可以跌多少？

　　Even as the tired mantra of a U.S. strong-dollar policy was repeated by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner this week and Ben Bernanke on Wednesday, the greenback continued plumbing new depths. The ICE dollar index is at its lowest since 2008. This year the dollar has hit record lows against the yen, the Australian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Singapore dollar, J.P. Morgan notes. All the forces look negative. But investors should weigh the risks carefully.

　　美国财政部长盖特纳(Timothy Geithner)在本周、美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)在周三又念叨着美国奉行强势美元政策这个让人生厌的咒语，同一时间，美元却在继续跌向新的深度。洲际交易所(ICE)美元指数处于2008年以来的最低水平。摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)指出，今年美元已经对日圆、澳大利亚元、瑞士法郎和新加坡元创下纪录新低。所有因素看起来都不利于美元。但投资者应当仔细权衡风险。

　　Most obviously, the dollar is suffering from ultraloose U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve continues to hold rates at zero and buy bonds. While the money printing is finally scheduled to end in June, the Fed still plans an extended period of low rates. Meanwhile, central banks elsewhere are firmly in rate-raising mode, including the European Central Bank, which seems determined to burnish its inflation-busting credentials. A big yield differential between the U.S. and Europe could open up.

　　最明显的利空因素是美国的超宽松货币政策。美联储仍在将利率维持于近零水平，仍在购买国债。印钞票之举终于确定要在6月份结束，但美联储仍然打算在较长时期维持低利率。与此同时，其他央行已经明确地进入加息状态，比如欧洲中央银行(European Central Bank)，它似乎下定了决心要提高自己的抗通胀成绩。美国和欧洲之间有可能形成一个巨大的息差。

　　Another negative is international capital flows. U.S. investors have been stepping up purchases of foreign stocks, and foreign central-bank reserve managers are diversifying holdings. Central banks' purchases of foreign currency added $248 billion to reserves in the first quarter. But official flows into U.S. dollar assets are far limper compared with that, according to Nomura. China, in particular, has signaled support for the euro and euro-zone bonds.

　　另外一个不利因素是国际资本流动。美国投资者已经在加大购买海外股票的力度，其他央行的外汇储备管理机构也在分散资产。多家央行今年一季度所购外币使它们的储备增加了2480亿美元，但野村证券(Nomura)数据显示，官方购买美元资产的资金流比这个数字稀少得多。特别是中国，它已经发出了支持欧元和欧元区债券的信号。

　　There also is the risk of further dollar weakness if it starts to reflect fiscal concerns, as the euro did last year. Washington has shown little evidence of its ability to agree to a coherent plan to tame the runaway deficit.

　　而如果美元像欧元去年一样，开始反映投资者对财政状况的担忧，这也有可能使美元进一步走软。华盛顿基本没有什么证据表明它能够就某个控制赤字的严密方案达成一致。

　　The danger is chasing the dollar down this apparent one-way street. The biggest threat to the conventional wisdom is the potential for a dip in risk appetite. That might be sparked by the end of quantitative easing, or a more serious resurgence in the euro-zone debt crisis, particularly if it threatened Spain. A risk-off trade likely would cause a dollar spike on safe-haven flows and investors closing short-dollar bets.

　　如果以为美元是在单边下跌，于是顺势做空，那就危险了。这种普遍看法面临的最大威胁，在于市场风险偏好可能突然减弱。量化宽松的结束可能导致这种减弱，而如果欧洲债务危机死灰复燃而且更加严重，特别是如果危机威胁到西班牙，风险偏好同样有可能突减。若投资者进行避险操作，美元就有可能因为避险资金流入、投资者结清美元空头而大幅上涨。

　　But even that likely would be temporary. Even though Mr. Bernanke made clear he will act if inflation risks rise, soaring asset prices and the impact of higher commodities prices into headline inflation are likely to continue being ignored. While the bar for further money printing is getting higher, the message from Wednesday's meeting was the Fed remains committed in its experiment of superaggressive monetary policy to reduce unemployment and pull the U.S. out of its economic mess.

　　但即使这种情况也有可能只是暂时的。尽管贝南克明确表示他会在通胀风险增加的情况下采取行动，但资产价格的飙升、大宗商品价格上涨对总体通货膨胀的影响有可能继续被忽略。虽然继续印刷钞票面临的限制日趋严格，但周三议息会议传出的信息却是美联储仍然要坚持试验它的超激进货币政策，以减少失业，让美国走出经济泥潭。

　　The surge in gold and silver, with the SPDR Gold Trust and iShares Silver Trust ETFs up 1.9% and 6.8%, respectively, on the day, underlined the market view. Investors can expect plenty more dollar-sapping monetary policy to come.

　　周三黄金和白银价格大幅上涨，交易所买卖基金SPDR Gold Trust和iShares Silver Trust分别上涨了1.9%和6.8%。这正是市场上述观点的反映。投资者可以期待大量不利于美元的新货币政策出台。