Even arguably the world's most powerful man seems unable to dampen gold's shine. Reuters

　　美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)可以说是世界上最有权力的人，但他似乎也无法掩盖黄金的光芒。

　　U.S. President Barack Obama said Sunday that the country's sparring political parties have reached a tentative deal to raise the country's debt ceiling, cut the federal deficit and avoid a credit default. The news has taken the wind out of gold's sails, pushing prices some $25 a troy ounce down from their recent high, but the market's longer-term prospects don't appear to be significantly dented.

　　奥巴马周日说，美国打打闹闹的两个政党已经达成了提高债务上限、削减联邦赤字、避免信用违约的初步协议。这一消息曾给黄金造成打击，使其价格较近期高点下跌了大约每盎司25美元。但这个市场更长期的前景似乎并没有受到明显影响。

　　Gold has been widely viewed as a safe place to put money as an alternative to U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, which have suffered as the potential for systemic financial risk has increased. The market peaked at an all-time high of $1,632.74/oz Friday, aided by deteriorating confidence in the U.S. dollar and a euro zone ricocheting from one economic disaster to another.

　　由于出现系统性金融风险的可能性增加，美国国债和美元遭受打击，而黄金又被普遍视为替代性的安全投资工具。上周五，因投资者对美元越来越没有信心，而欧元区躲过一个经济灾难又遇上另一个灾难，黄金价格见顶于每盎司1,632.74美元的历史高点。

　　A large number of investors are holding long positions in gold, heightening the potential for a sizeable selloff if both chambers of Congress vote to accept the deal.

　　很多投资者是持有黄金多头，所以如果参众两院都表决通过奥巴马所说的协议，黄金价格就更有可能急剧下跌。

　　But there are enough rumblings of negativity, particularly around the outlook for the dollar, to keep gold's appeal as a safe bet intact.

　　但悲观讨论有很多，特别是关于美元的前景，这些讨论足以让黄金作为避险工具的吸引力不受影响。

　　"On Aug. 1, the U.S. dollar officially lost its place as the world's safe currency as a store of value,' said Tom Winnifrith, a fund manager at t1ps Investment Management. 'In the absence of an alternative, the only currency whose value is not being systematically destroyed by politicians remains gold, and if you think recent increases in the gold price were startling, you ain't seen nothing yet."

　　投资管理公司t1ps Investment Management基金经理温尼弗里思(Tom Winnifrith)说，8月1日，美元正式失去它作为世界安全储值货币的地位；在缺乏替代品的情况下，唯一一个没有被政治家系统性地毁掉价值的货币依旧是黄金，而如果你觉得近期金价的上涨让人吃惊，好戏还在后头。

　　Winnifrith is tipping gold to reach $2,100/oz before the next U.S. presidential election in 2012.

　　温尼弗里思预计金价将在美国2012年下次总统选举之前达到每盎司2,100美元。

　　Although others argue the dollar has already fallen in anticipation of a U.S. default or downgrade, and that major holders--like China--won't rush for the exit, they concede that the fallout will be felt for years to come, adding to gold's allure.

　　其他人说，因为投资者预期美国违约或被下调评级，美元已经而下跌，而且中国等其他重要持有人也不会急着退出。但他们也承认，后续影响将为时数年，从而使黄金的魅力进一步增加。

　　The passage of the proposed debt deal isn't a done deal. Its fate may be assured in the Senate, but Republican representatives are likely to give the bill a tougher ride. Both houses need to accept the proposal for it to become law. Even if agreement is quickly reached by Congress, the reaction of the ratings agencies poses a larger question mark.

　　拟议的债务方案还不一定能够获得通过。其命运在参议院可能是有保障的，但共和党众议员可能不会让它那么顺利通过。议案要成为法律，则必须在两院获得通过。即使国会很快达成协议，评级机构做何反应，也构成了一个更大的问题。

　　Under the proposed deal, the debt ceiling will be raised to $17.7 trillion from $14.3 trillion and in return the government will make plans to cut spending by $1 trillion over the next decade and charge a special committee with finding a further $1.5 trillion savings over the same period. But this won't be enough for some agencies, which deem cuts of $4 trillion necessary for the U.S. to maintain its AAA rating.

　　根据拟议方案，债务上限将从14.3万亿美元提高到17.7万亿美元，作为条件，政府将制定未来10年削减支出1万亿美元的方案，并委托一个特别委员会寻找同一时期进一步省下1.5万亿美元的办法。但这对于一些评级机构来讲仍然不够，它们认为，美国要维持AAA评级，则必须削减支出4万亿美元。

　　Nigel Sillis, Director of Research, Fixed Income & Currency at Baring Asset Management, said the question has become not if the U.S. will be downgraded, but when. All this spells good news for gold.

　　资产管理公司霸菱资产管理有限公司（Baring Asset Management）固定收益与外汇部研究总监西利斯(Nigel Sillis)说，问题已经不是美国会不会被下调评级，而是何时被下调。对于黄金来说，这一切都是利好消息。

　　'The possibility of additional quantitative easing in the U.S. and the likelihood that real interest rates will remain negative for some time--at least until 2013--reinforce the attractiveness of gold to investors,' said Caroline Bain, economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit.

　　《经济学人》信息部(Economist Intelligence Unit)经济学家贝恩(Caroline Bain)说，美国采取新一轮量化宽松措施的可能性，以及一段时间内（至少在2013年之前）实际利率继续为负的可能性，强化了黄金对于投资者的吸引力。

　　The debt saga is undoubtedly set to see a few more twists and turns to come. But it's critical that the markets don't lose sight of why the situation in the U.S. occurred in the first place.

　　围绕债务问题展开的曲折争论，接下来无疑还会出现一些新的转折。但关键是市场并没有忘记美国当前局势一开头为什么会出现。

　　'The global financial crisis has simply been transferred from banks to governments, and even the U.S. cannot escape the need for many years of fiscal austerity,' said Julian Jessop, chief international economist at Capital Economics.

　　研究公司Capital Economics首席国际经济学家杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)说，很简单，全球金融危机已经从银行转移到政府，即使美国也逃不掉多年紧缩财政的必要性。

　　With U.S. gross domestic product growth on track to disappoint, as last week's second quarter data showed, equities will struggle to gain ground and Treasury yields will stay low--all of which cushion gold's downside at the very least, and provides plenty of reasons for its ascent at best.

　　在美国国内生产总值很可能低于预期（正如上周发布的二季度数据所显示）的情况下，股市将很难走强，美国国债收益率也会保持在低水平。这一切至少会给黄金价格的下跌形成缓冲，往好的方面说，还有可能为其上涨提供许许多多的理由。