Chinese economic data released Tuesday suggest a nation that has long relied on exports is getting more help from domestic demand─a potential positive for the global economy as Europe grapples with its debt crisis and U.S. growth sputters.

　　周二公布的中国经济数据显示，这个长期以来依靠出口的国家开始更多地受到国内需求的推动。在欧洲忙于应对债务危机、美国增长低迷之际，这对全球经济可能是个利好因素。

　　Chinese data Tuesday, which showed third-quarter gross domestic product up 9.1% from a year earlier after 9.5% growth in the second quarter, came in slightly below analyst expectations of 9.2% growth and raised some concern in markets. Still, the growth rate was generally welcomed by economists who saw it as evidence that China can guide its economy to a soft landing as it tries to quell inflation without seriously hurting growth.

　　中国周二公布的数据显示，三季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比增长9.1%，而二季度增长率为9.5%。新出炉的数据略低于分析人士预期的9.2%，引发了市场一定程度的担忧。尽管如此，这样的增长率仍受到了经济学家的普遍欢迎，他们将此视为中国在努力遏制通货膨胀、同时有能力在不严重损害增长的情况下引导经济实现软着陆的证据。

　　It also offered a sign that China's domestic demand is partially making up for softening appetite for China's exports. That could leave China in a better position to weather moderate drops in exports, which have hit its economy hard in the past. It could also mean that China will remain a crucial support for global growth, as its rising consumption feeds demand for raw materials and other goods from around the world.

　　相关报道这也表明，中国出口需求的不断下滑已经部分地在国内需求上得到弥补。这可能使中国能够更好地应对出口的小幅下滑。过去，出口下滑曾给中国经济增长造成重大影响。同时，这也可能意味着随着中国不断增加的消费推动对全球原材料和其他商品的需求，中国将依然是全球经济增长的一个重要支撑。

　　China's respectable growth so far this year has come despite a deteriorating environment for its exports. Over the first three quarters, net exports actually reduced the economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point, National Bureau of Statistics Shen Laiyun said on the sidelines of a press briefing on Tuesday.

　　尽管中国出口行业面临的环境不断恶化，今年以来中国却实现了相当可观的增长。中国国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运周二在新闻发布会间隙说，今年前三季度，净出口实际上给经济增长率带来了0.1个百分点的损失。

　　“So far this year, especially in the third quarter, growth in China's imports of goods and services has exceeded export growth,” he said. “This shows that the contribution to the global recovery from China's economy is growing.”

　　盛来运称，今年以来，尤其在三季度，中国货物进口的增长速度要大于出口的增长速度。这表明中国经济对世界的复苏做出的贡献在继续增加。

　　China's status as the world's top exporter has long been both a strength and an occasional source of weakness. China's economic growth dipped below 7% in the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, during the worst of the global financial crisis, sparking worries in a country where growth of 8% or more is generally considered necessary to insure stability among the nation's rapidly urbanizing population.

　　中国是全球第一大出口国，这种地位一直以来既是优势，有时也是劣势。2008年四季度和2009年一季度，在全球金融危机最严重的时期，中国经济增长率下降至7%以下，引发了国内的担忧。在中国，人们一般认为若要确保中国迅速城市化的人口保持稳定，必须要达到8%或更高的增长率。

　　Since then, China's policy makers have renewed efforts to promote domestic consumption and have made progress in rebalancing the economy away from exports. The country's current-account surplus─a broad measure of its trade balance favored by economists─was just 2.8% of GDP in the first half of 2011, compared to more than 10% in 2007.

　　此后，中国决策者重新开始努力促进内需，并且在调整经济结构、减少对出口依赖方面取得了一定的进展。2011年上半年，中国经常项目盈余只相当于GDP的2.8%，而2007年这一数字在10%以上。经常项目盈余是经济学家用来衡量中国贸易差额的一个宽泛衡量指标。

　　“Even if Western economies slip into a renewed recession, the impact on China's growth should be much smaller than three years ago. China has been much less dependent on external demand,” HSBC economist Qu Hongbing.

　　Reuters温州一个工地的工人在搬运砖块。中国第三季度经济增速略微放缓至9.1%。汇丰(HSBC)的经济学家屈宏斌说，就算西方经济体滑入新一轮的衰退，对中国增长的影响应该也比三年前小很多。中国经济增长对出口的依赖度相比三年前已大幅下降。

　　Other indicators on Tuesday signaled positive momentum. China's retail sales in September rose 17.7% from a year earlier, compared with a 17% rise in August. Industrial output growth accelerated unexpectedly in September, up 13.8% from a year earlier, exceeding both August's 13.5% and the 13.3% expected by economists.

　　周二公布的其它经济指标说明经济增长出现积极势头：9月份零售销售额同比上升17.7%，8月份的同比升幅为17%。9月份工业增加值意外加速上升，同比升幅达13.8%，高于8月份13.5%的水平以及经济学家给出的13.3%的预期。

　　“The pickup in industrial production and retail sales are surprising, and reinforce our view that Chna's growth is increasingly driven by domestic demand, which remains strong,” said Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Nomura, in a note.

　　野村证券（Nomura）经济学家张智威在一份研究报告中写道，工业增加值和零售销售额的上升出乎意料，这也强化了我们的观点，即中国经济增长日益受到国内需求的推动，而国内需求依然强劲。

　　Still, other indicators suggest potential weakness. HSBC Holdings PLC's purchasing managers index─which measures manufacturing activity and is weighted toward the key small- and medium-sized business sector─showed a third straight month of contraction in September, reflecting pressures among the nation's smaller, privately owned businesses, which have suffered amid tightening credit. An official PMI reading, which is weighted toward major state-owned enterprises, has shown expansion.

　　尽管如此，其它一些经济指标却预示着中国经济可能存在弱点。汇丰控股有限公司（HSBC Holdings PLC，简称：汇丰）编制的中国采购经理人指数在9月份连续第三个月收缩，这反映了中国中小民营企业面临的压力。信贷紧缩令中小企业苦苦挣扎。而官方发布的中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）则显示经济正在扩张。汇丰的采购经理人指数主要衡量制造业的情况，侧重于重要的中小企业。而官方编制的PMI侧重于大型国有企业。

　　To be sure, China is not immune to global ills. In the event of a deep global recession, it is far from clear that any uptick in domestic demand would be enough to overcome a prolonged slump in exports.

　　诚然，全球经济出现问题，中国也难以幸免。如果全球经济出现严重衰退，那么国内需求的增长是否足以抵消出口长期低迷所导致的负面影响，目前还难以看清。

　　“China's Q3 data confirmed that growth was stable last quarter, but with both exports and real-estate construction likely to slow, a more difficult period lies ahead,” said Mark Williams, an economist with research firm Capital Economics, in a note.

　　研究机构凯投宏观（Capital Economics）的经济学家威廉姆斯（Mark Williams）在一份研究报告中写道，中国第三季度的经济数据证实，这一季度的经济增长是稳定的，但由于出口和房地产建设预计会放缓，未来的经济形势可能更加严峻。

　　Mr. Williams says his firm's calculation of China's growth, which uses a measure including such factors as freight traffic and electricity production, suggest third-quarter growth of around 8.4% on an annualized basis. “But the pattern of broadly stable growth over the past couple of quarters is the same,” he said.

　　威廉姆斯说，据凯投宏观计算，中国经济今年第三季度的增速折合成年率大约为8.4%。该公司在计算中国经济增速时参考了货物运输量和发电量等指标。他又说，中国经济保持了过去几个季度以来的稳定增长态势。

　　The results divided economists trying to divine whether Beijing will loosen fiscal constraints to spur faster growth or whether it is comfortable to current levels and will stand pat. Mr. Williams from Capital Economics said the central bank is likely to loosen credit controls by the end of the year, and may also cut the level of required reserves in the banking system.

　　第三季度的经济数据令经济学家产生了分歧。这些经济学家正试图预测：北京究竟是会放松财政约束以促进经济更快增长，还是会因对目前增长水平感到满意而将继续按兵不动。威廉姆斯认为，到年底前央行可能放松信贷控制，也可能会降低银行存款准备金率。

　　But Mr. Zhang, of Nomura, said China's central bank “is likely to keep policy on hold for the rest of 2011 and observe closely how the current global economic slowdown and financial market turmoil affects the domestic economy.”

　　但野村证券的张智威则认为，中国央行在2011年剩下的时间里可能将维持现行政策不变，并将密切观察当前全球经济增长放缓和金融市场动荡会如何影响国内经济。

　　The results came as investors worried about continuing debt problems in Europe and reacted to a Monday sell-off in the U.S. Asian markets ended broadly lower on Tuesday, with Hong Kong's main benchmark index falling 4.2% and Shanghai's falling 2.3%. The yuan also fell against the U.S. dollar in the Chinese over-the-counter markets as well as in Hong Kong.

　　这批经济数据公布之时，正值投资者担忧欧洲债务问题继续恶化并对周一美国股市的抛售做出反应之际。周二收盘时亚洲股市全面走低，香港主要基准股指跌4.2%，沪指跌2.3%。人民币对美元汇率在中国场外交易市场和香港市场双双下跌。