要是有人寄希望于中国人民币币值重估带来美国制造业迅速复苏，那他们应当跟中国沿海一家鞋厂的老板本（Ben）聊聊。

    人们一贯认为，2008-09年的严重经济衰退应当会让像本这样的中国出口商元气大伤。本要求不透露他的姓，以保护他的竞争优势。2009年中国出口量萎缩16%，约2，300万外出务工者在经济危机中失去工作。

    然而去年却是本有生以来最好的年头。在竞争对手步履维艰之际，本投资200万美元购买新设备，摒弃制作廉价杂牌鞋子的业务，转向钢头工作靴、徒步鞋以及名牌运动鞋。他现在为知名西方公司生产这些鞋子。他的工厂生产的产品平均售价涨了近两倍，销售较上年增长逾50%.

    中国已经将大衰退转变为大机遇，2008年11月至2009年11月，美国进口的商品中，中国产品的份额从15.9%增加到19.1%.无论中国政府在人民币汇率方面有何动作，该份额只会上升。多年来，凭借低估的人民币币值，中国获取了市场份额，建设了基础设施以供应全球市场，如今，中国在某些行业已经确立了牢不可破的优势，即便人民币币值重估，也不会导致大量定单转向其他国家。

    美国消费者大肆挥霍的那些年是中国出口商的黄金时代，而本轮经济衰退则有如一年期MBA课程：它迫使幸存的出口商关注盈利，加大研发和产品设计方面的投入，并为自己的产品寻找新的市场。本说，我们需要降低劳动力密集程度，提高生产率，否则定单就会被竞争对手抢走。他算了一下，光是他所在的城市就有大约6，000家对手。

    大衰退还突出了中国对于全球经济增长的重要性，强化了其作为货源地的吸引力。但众多公司越来越想在中国销售产品，而不仅仅是制造产品。位于芝加哥的会计及咨询机构Plante & Moran的全球服务主管Lou Longo说，他认为美国公司从中国工厂进货不仅仅是想借较低的成本得利，而是要了解当地市场。

    各个行业的情况都一样：即便美国进口商品这个大蛋糕整体缩水了，但中国还是抢了块大的。美国人口普查局（Census Bureau）数据显示，2009年前九个月，81种中国输美产品的美国进口量增加了逾20%，价格下降至少20%.

    这些产品中大约四分之一为纺织品、服装或鞋类。位于南卡罗莱纳州的国际贸易数据供应商世界贸易信息服务股份公司（Global Trade Information Services）的数据显示，去年1-9月，中国产非针织服装及面料占美国此类产品进口的份额从37.2%增加到41.6%.消费电子产品中，中国产品的份额从31.9%增加到33.9%.药品、照相机、医学设备、陶瓷、橡胶、塑料甚至鱼类和海产品，中国的份额都有所增长。

    以罗非鱼为例：2009年前十个月，美国进口自中国的冷冻罗非鱼片数量猛增15%.西雅图鱼类加工商HQ Sustainable从中国海南省的渔场进货，该公司首席执行长斯玻恩斯（Norbert Sporns）预计，美国出售的80%的冷冻罗非鱼来自中国。

    他说，我们选中海南的主要原因不是廉价劳动力，而是因为政府的支持，因为合理规划的基础设施。他说，美国大多数州都不对基础设施进行规划以发展水产业。由于担心养鱼场会破坏环境，水产业在美国争议很大。

    电脑和电子消费品也是这个道理。中国的角色现在已不止于装配车间：国际知名电子产品品牌以前在中国装配产品，然后运往其他国家“加工”，即为某个市场定制用户手册、电源线或键盘。比如说，针对欧洲市场的电脑会在荷兰加工。如今它们就在华南的深圳加工。随着大牌厂家简化供应链以减少存货、缩短产品上市时间，将这些服务转到产品生产线所在的中国要比将生产线转到其他地方更容易。

    这些例子显示出美国公司削减成本的举措如何推动其将业务转向中国，以及中国厂商如何增强自身在汇率政策之外的竞争优势。事实上，预期人民币将重估的中国工厂已经在加强防范。前文所述的鞋厂老板本就将供应商的定单整合起来发货，以节省物流成本，限制使用空调以降低电费，并安装太阳能电池板和LED灯管，从而让工厂达到当地政府的要求以获得一笔小规模的补贴，政府为投资环保技术的公司提供补贴。

    支持中国进行人民币重估的人常常声称，这会有助于在高消费的美国人和高储蓄的中国人之间实现全球性的再平衡。事实上，中国在制造方面拥有强劲的竞争优势，无论汇率有何变化，中国在可预见的未来都将保持这种优势。问问本就知道了。

    Anyone pinning their hopes on a rapid revival in American manufacturing as a result of a revaluation of China's currency needs to meet Ben,the owner of a coastal Chinese shoe factory.

    Conventional wisdom holds that exporters in China like Ben,a Chinese man who asked that his surname be withheld to protect his competitive advantage,should have been devastated by the Great Recession of 2008-09. China's export volume shrank 16% in 2009,and some 23 million migrant workers lost their jobs in the downturn.

    But last year was Ben's best ever. As his competitors teetered,Ben invested $2 million in new equipment to shift away from making cheap,no-brand shoes and into steel-toe work boots,hiking shoes and branded athletic footwear. He now produces these under contract for well-known Western companies. Ben's average selling price has almost tripled. Sales are up more than 50% year-on-year.

    China has turned the Great Recession into the Great Opportunity,growing its share of imports in the United States to 19.1% from 15.9% between November 2008 and November 2009. That share is only going to increase,regardless of what Beijing does with the yuan. After years of accumulating market share and building the infrastructure to supply the global market with the help of an undervalued currency,China's advantage is so entrenched in certain industries that a yuan revaluation is unlikely to divert substantial volumes of orders to other countries.

    While the years of profligate American consumer spending were boom times for Chinese exporters,the slowdown was like a one-year MBA program:It forced surviving exporters to focus on the bottom line,invest more in research,development and product design,and find new markets for their products. "We need to reduce labor intensity and improve productivity,or else we'll lose orders to our competitors," says Ben,who counts some 6，000 rivals in his city alone.

    The Great Recession also threw into relief China's importance to global economic growth,reinforcing its allure as a sourcing destination. Companies increasingly want to sell to China,not simply manufacture there. Lou Longo,head of global services at Chicago-based advisory group Plante & Moran,says he sees U.S. companies buying from factories in China not only to take advantage of lower costs,but to learn their way around the local market.

    In sector after sector,the story is the same:Even as the total pie of U.S. imports shrank,China amassed a larger piece. In the first nine months of 2009,there were 81 products from China that saw imports to the U.S. expand by more than 20% and prices decline by at least 20%,according to data from the Census Bureau.

    Of those products,roughly one-quarter were textiles,apparel or shoes. Between January and November,China's share of nonknitted apparel and clothing imports into the U.S. rose to 41.6% from 37.2%,according to Global Trade Information Services,a South Carolina-based supplier of international trade data. Its share of consumer electronics rose to 33.9% from 31.9%. In pharmaceuticals,cameras,medical devices,ceramics,rubber,plastics and even fish and seafood,China has gained share.

    Take tilapia:American imports from China of frozen fillets of this popular fish leapt 15% by volume in the first ten months of 2009. Norbert Sporns,chief executive of HQ Sustainable,a Seattle-based fish processor that buys from aquaculture farms in the southern Chinese province of Hainan,estimates about 80% of frozen tilapia sold in the U.S. comes from China.

    'The major reason why we're sited in Hainan is not because of cheaper labor,but because of government support,because of the infrastructure that is laid out properly," he says. Most U.S. states,he says,"choose not to lay out the infrastructure' to support aquaculture. Concerns about environmental damage from fish farming make aquaculture controversial in the U.S.

    The same logic applies to computers and consumer electronics. China's role now extends beyond assembly:Big global electronics brands used to assemble their products in China and then ship them to other countries for 'flavoring' —— industry lingo for tailoring a user manual,power supply cord or keyboard to an individual market. Computers destined for Europe would be flavored in Holland,for instance. Today,they are flavored in Shenzhen,in southern China. As big brands streamline their supply chains to reduce inventory and shorten products' time to market,it's easier to move these services to China,where the products are made,than to move the manufacturing elsewhere.

    These examples show both how U.S. companies' cost-cutting efforts are driving business to China and how Chinese manufacturers have boosted their competitiveness independent of currency policy. Indeed,Chinese factories are already shoring up their defenses in anticipation of a revaluation. Ben,the shoe factory owner,is consolidating orders from suppliers into fewer shipments to save on logistics costs,limiting air conditioner use to cut his electricity bill,and installing solar panels and LED lights to qualify for a modest local government subsidy for companies that invest in environmentally friendly technology.

    Proponents of a Chinese revaluation often claim it would contribute to a global rebalancing between high-consuming Americans and high-saving Chinese. The reality is that China has strong competitive advantages in manufacturing that will exist for the foreseeable future,whatever the exchange rate. Just ask Ben.