When investment bankers start pontificating on Hong Kong's housing and income inequality problems, you know it's a serious problem.

　　当投资银行家都开始以权威身份谈论香港的住房和收入不平等问题时，你就知道问题有多严重了。

　　A story and accompanying video by Polly Hui in the WSJ explores the problem of subdivided flats in Hong Kong as the government pledges it will address public anger over record house prices and reassess land policy. J.P.Morgan has helpfully crunched the numbers in a note, 'Unaffordable housing,' to show just how unaffordable housing has become for the general public and why the government's cooling policies have been ineffective.

　　就在香港政府承诺将平息公众对房价屡创历史新高的愤怒并重新评估香港的土地政策之时，《华尔街日报》记者Polly Hui的报道及相关视频探究了香港单元房被分割成单间对外出租的问题，摩根大通公司(J.P.Morgan)仔细剖析相关数据后发布了一份题为《买不起房子》(Unaffordable housing)的研究报告，这份报告一方面显示香港房价已远远超出普通大众的负担能力，另一方面也解释了为什么香港政府为楼市降温的政策没有奏效。

　　For starters, incomes are increasing nowhere near as fast as house prices; median household income in March 2011 was HK$19,100 (US$2451). More than 50% of families earn just HK$20,000 per month, and only 4.2% of households have an income over HK$100,000 a month. Nominal median income for households is 27% less than in 1987. Writes JPM:

　　MIKE CLARKE/AFP/Getty Images对于刚刚开始工作的香港人来说，工资的上涨速度绝对赶不上房价涨幅。2011年3月，香港家庭收入中值是1.91万港元(合2,451美元)。一半以上香港家庭的月收入只有2万港元，而月收入超过10万港元的家庭只占到全港家庭总数的4.2%。香港家庭名义收入中值较1987年下降了27%。摩根大通在报告中说：

　　A 1,300 sq ft apartment in the Belcher's (upscale private complex in Hong Kong's Western district) is equivalent to 11.6 times an income of HK$100,000 per month. Even wealthy households cannot pay for property from income.

　　香港宝翠园(Belcher's)一套约120平方米的公寓价格是每月10万港元收入的11.6倍。宝翠园是位于香港西区的高档私人住宅。就连富裕家庭用工资收入也买不起房子。

　　Never mind the Belcher's, even apartments in one of Hong Kong's largest private estates, the three-decade old Mei Foo Sun Chuen, is out of reach for most, which JPM finds 'most disturbing' (not to mention the fact that when the estate was built, it was on the coast伟the view is now blocked by the West Kowloon Highway and a container terminal block, it adds). Assuming a loan-to-value ratio of 70%, the initial payment for a 675-square-foot flat would be around four times median household income. Assuming the household saves 20% of its income for the down payment, it would take the household 18 years to save for just the initial payment.

　　不要说宝翠园公寓，即使是香港规模最大的私有住宅区之一、有30年历史的美孚新村(Mei Foo Sun Chuen)公寓，对大多数港人来说也是望尘莫及。摩根大通认为这一现象令人极为不安(还不要说该楼盘的建成时间及坐落位置，它们本是海景房，但现在海景被西九龙公路(West Kowloon Highway)和一个集装箱码头挡住了)。假设房屋贷款的首付比例是三成，那么买一套约62平米的公寓，首付就相当于香港家庭收入中值的四倍。假设一个家庭把月收入的20%拿出来攒首付，需要攒18年。

　　Prices of these so-called 'blue-chip property estates' have also exceeded their 1997 peaks, according to JPM, with returns from smaller, medium-priced apartments in the New Territories at 27% on average in the last two years, compared with 15%-18% for more expensive flats in Hong Kong Island and Kowloon.

　　摩根大通的报告显示，这些所谓“优质房屋”的价格已超过了1997年的峰值。位于香港新界地区面积较小、价位中等的公寓过去两年的平均回报率为27%，香港岛和九龙那些价格较贵公寓的平均回报率为15%至18%。

　　The culprit is of course, in part, ultra-low interest rates, but the government's response to lower loan-to-value ratios is counterproductive and has simply 'shut out the bulk of the population from the market.' While lower LTVs means lower mortgage payments, the improvement in affordability is deceptive, says JPM, as long as 'the denominator remains median income of households.' And with mortgages expected to increase, affordability will only decrease from here (affordability is calculated by property value times LTV times mortgage rates).

　　从某种程度上说，超低利率当然是首要原因，但香港政府提高房屋首付比例的做法也起了反作用，这只是把大多数港人挡在了房地产市场之外。摩根大通说，虽然首付比例越高意味着每月按揭还款额越少，但只要分母仍为家庭收入中值，住房负担能力的改善就具有一定的欺骗性。由于举借的抵押贷款预计会增多，因此住房负担能力只会下降(住房负担能力是用房屋估值乘以贷款金额与房屋估值比率(LTV)再乘以按揭利率得出的)。

　　The message from JPM is loud and clear: 'Hong Kongㄒneeds more affordable housing.' Oh, and buy landlords over developers.

　　摩根大通这份报告传递出的信息非常有力和明确：香港需要提供更多买得起的房子。哦还有，要买出租房屋的公司而不是房地产开发商的股票。