China’s manufacturing sector could be heading for its first contraction in a year as new orders drop and factories battle against persistent inflation, according to a survey published on Thursday.

　　根据周四发布的一项调查，中国制造业可能正滑向一年内的首次收缩，新订单数量下降，工厂艰难应对居高不下的通胀。

　　The HSBC flash purchasing managers’ index for China, designed to provide an early snapshot of industrial conditions, has fallen to 48.9 in July, the lowest in 28 months. The final figure for this month will be published on August 1. A reading below 50 would denote a retrenchment in activity.

　　汇丰(HSBC)的采购经理指数预览值(flash PMI)意在提供有关工业活动状况的早期快照。7月份中国制造业PMI预览值跌至48.9，这是28个月以来的最低位。本月的PMI终值将在8月1日发布。PMI低于50说明活动收缩。

　　The weak PMI added to concerns that sustained monetary tightening by the government is weighing on growth, but analysts cautioned against overreacting, saying that the world’s second largest economy was still poised to perform strongly in the second half.

　　疲弱的PMI加剧了人们的担忧，即政府坚持不懈地收紧货币政策之举正在影响经济增长。但分析师们告诫人们不要反应过度，称今年下半年全球第二大经济体仍将表现强劲。

　　Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with HSBC, said that “resilience of consumer spending and continued investment in a massive amount of infrastructure projects” would prop up the country’s growth at about 9 per cent over the rest of year. China’s economy expanded 9.6 per cent in the first half, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

　　汇丰中国区首席经济学家屈宏斌表示，“消费者支出的弹性和大量基建项目的持续投资”将在今年剩余的时间里支撑中国经济增长，使增速保持在大约9%。今年上半年中国经济扩张9.6%，是全球增长最快的大型经济体。

　　Premier Wen Jiabao said last week that the government had to strike a balance between suppressing price pressures and preventing sharp swings in the pace of growth.

　　中国总理温家宝上周表示，政府必须在遏制价格压力与防止经济增长剧烈波动之间达到平衡。

　　Faced with the highest inflation in three years, the central bank has been steadily tightening policy, raising interest rates five times and banks’ reserve requirements nine times in the past nine months.

　　面对三年来最高的通胀，中国央行在过去九个月期间稳步收紧政策，迄今已5次上调利率，9次提高银行存款准备金率。

　　Even after all those moves, inflation remains a stubborn foe, with the flash PMI pointing to a rebound in input costs in July. But a deepening slowdown in manufacturing growth could compel the government to pause its tightening campaign.

　　即使在采取了所有这些措施后，通胀仍是一个顽固的对手。汇丰的PMI预览值显示，7月份投入成本出现反弹。但是，若制造业增长放缓趋势不断深化，可能促使中国政府暂停其收紧政策的行动。

　　Reflecting concerns about the outlook, the main Chinese stock market index in Shanghai fell 1 per cent on Thursday, its fourth straight day of declines.

　　周四，中国主要股指——上证综指下跌1%，这是该指数连续第四天下跌，反映出市场对前景的忧虑。

　　China Development Bank, a major state-owned lender, said it had cancelled a bill issuance scheduled for Friday. It did not explain why, but the central bank’s tightening has drained cash from the Chinese money market, leading to under-subscriptions of a series of short-term debt auctions in recent weeks.

　　国有的中国国家开发银行(CDB)表示，它已取消了原定在周五进行的一期债券发行。该行并未解释原因，但中国央行的收紧行动已从中国货币市场抽走现金，导致近几周一系列短期债务的拍卖遭遇认购不足。

　　Taking a longer-term view, the International Monetary Fund said in its annual report about the Chinese economy that the country remained “on a solid footing”, in part thanks to the employment and wage growth that have fuelled domestic consumption. However, it warned that food-driven inflation, a property bubble and declining credit quality all posed risks.

　　从更为长远的视角看，国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其有关中国经济的年报中表示，中国经济仍“步伐稳健”，部分原因是就业和工资增长提振了国内消费。不过，IMF警告称，食品价格推动的通胀、房产泡沫和信贷质量下降都构成风险。