Two years ago， bankers and policymakers were arguing heatedly over whether New York or London was the world's premier financial centre. Amid the post-crisis rubble that covers both cities， those arguments now look terribly passe.

　　两年前，银行家和政策制定者还在激烈争论，世界上最重要的金融中心是纽约还是伦敦。在两个城市都受到波及的后危机时期，这些争论现在看起来已严重过时。

　　Financial services will still bring good jobs， revenues and vitality to cities that can attract them. Moreover， history shows that great financial centres confer significant global influence on the countries where they are located. Competition among these business hubs will thus remain intense.

　　对于能够吸引它们的城市，金融服务仍会带来好的工作、收入和活力。此外，历史表明，重要的金融中心会让所在国拥有重大的全球影响力。因此，这些金融中心之间的竞争仍然非常激烈。

　　Once the global recovery begins， however， New York and London might be vying less with one another than with a new competitor in the form of a partnership between Hong Kong and Shanghai - call it “shangkong” - a highly consequential shift of financial gravity to the east.

　　然而，一旦全球经济开始复苏，纽约和伦敦或许会减少彼此间的竞争，而加强与以香港和上海（称之为沪港，即Shangkong）合作形式出现的新竞争者的竞争——这是具有重大意义的金融重心向东方的倾斜。

　　Both New York and London will be nursing serious wounds for years. In both cases， budget deficits will be gigantic， resulting in higher taxes and cutbacks in public investment in the kind of services - transportation， education， even culture - that attract talent. In each city we can expect a big increase in financial regulation， not to mention ad hoc government interventions， adding to the cost and unpredictability of doing business. Controversies about financial remuneration will cause many professionals to seek other types of employment.

　　纽约和伦敦都将需要很多年来恢复元气。在两座城市，预算赤字都将非常庞大，导致增加税赋，削减交通、教育乃至文化等吸引人才的服务业领域的公共投资。预计两座城市都将加强金融监管，更不用提政府随意的干预，从而增加了在这两座城市做生意的成本和不可预测性。关于金融报酬的争论将促使许多专业人士寻求其它形式的就业。

　　The status of New York will also be undercut by the emergence of another big financial centre on the east coast： Washington DC， now the world's largest sovereign wealth fund and soon to be the epicentre of world financial regulatory reform. The increased intermingling of politics and finance will create new risks in the US financial system. On the other hand， China will be the world's largest creditor for decades. When Great Britain and the US each held this position， they were the price global financial centres.

　　东海岸另一个大型金融中心的兴起，也将削弱纽约的地位。这就是华盛顿特区。它如今是世界上最大的主权财富基金所在地，很快还会成为全球金融监管改革的中心。政治和金融联系日益密切，将为美国金融体系带来新的风险。另一方面，未来几十年，中国都将是世界上最大的债权国。在英美各自承担这个角色的时候，它们是全球主要的金融中心。

　　China owns several of the world's largest banks，all well capitalised. It has a large reservoir of big companies and up-and-coming ones that will be going public on the Hong Kong and Shanghai exchanges. It has a rapidly growing middle class with enormous savings that will encourage the development of a bigger and more sophisticated financial services sector. Its growth rate is still above 6 per cent （compared with negative rates in the Us and UK） and it will emerge from the financial crisis far stronger that either America or Britain.

　　中国拥有数家世界上规模最大的银行，资本都很充足。中国还拥有许多大型企业和即将在香港和上海交易所上市的新锐企业。中国迅速发展的中产阶级拥有庞大的储蓄，将鼓励金融服务业向着更庞大、更复杂的方向发展。中国的增长率仍高于6%（而美英是负增长），在摆脱金融危机后，将较美国或英国更为强大。

　　China lacks the sophistication of Wall Street or the City， but given the mess that complex and opaque securities have caused， a simpler system has its virtues. China will need to free up its currency in global markets， but this has been happening as the renminbi has risen 16 per cent against the dollar in the past year and Beijing has recently allowed several countries to hold the renminbi in the reserves.

　　中国没有华尔街或伦敦金融城那么复杂，但考虑到复杂和不透明证券产品导致的混乱，一个更为简单的体系有其自身的优势。中国需要在全球市场上放开其货币，但这种情况已经发生——过去一年人民币兑美元升值了16%，而北京最近允许多个国家将人民币作为其储备货币。

　　How could China make a big， dramatic leap？ It could begin by strengthening the links between Hong Kong and Shanghai， and transferring financial know-how from the former colony. The two cities are 750 miles apart， not an insurmountable distance in this age of rapid transit and internet communications. The connections are already being made： Beijing has just declared that Shanghai will be a major global financial centre in the next decade and co-operation between Hong Kong and Shanghai is growing， as shown by recent agreements to work together between key exchanges in both cities. Beijing could declare that Shanghai and Hong Kong will have a common set of regulations and recruit some of the world's best financiers to bolster its regulatory structure - perhaps luring them with an advantageous tax regime no longer possible in the west.

　　中国如何才能实现引人注目的大步跨越呢？它可以从加强香港与上海的联系入手，向前英国殖民地学习金融知识。两座城市相距750英里，在当前交通便利、互联网沟通快捷的时代，这并非一个不可跨越的距离。两地的联系已经开始：北京刚刚宣布，上海将在今后10年内建成一个主要的国际金融中心。正如上海和香港交易所最近签署的合作协议所显示的那样，两地的合作在不断加强。北京可以宣布，上海和香港将实施一套共同的监管措施，并将招募一些全球最好的金融家支持其监管架构——或许用西方国家不再可能提供的有利税收制度来吸引他们。

　　Besides that， if China continues to raise questions about the dominance of the US dollar and the need for an alternative montary system，other countries may have no choice but to listen - and gradually act. An eclipse of the dollar would be mirrored by a rise in the use of renminbi. That would guarantee Shangkong's prominence.

　　除此之外，如果中国继续质疑美元的主导地位，认为有必要换一种货币体系，其它国家可能别无选择，只能听从并逐步采取行动。美元衰落将映射出人民币走强。这将保障沪港的突出地位。

　　The US and UK must understand that， as they rebuild banking system， the vitality of their financial centres is important to growth and prosperity， and also to geopolitical influence. This entails looking at regulation， taxes and quality-of-life infrastructure with an eye towards keeping the most talented people. Unfortunately， powerful political forces are moving in the opposite direction. The Us and the UK could paying a steep price for many years into the future.

　　美英两国必须明白，当它们重建银行体系之时，金融中心的活力对增长和繁荣以及地缘政治影响力至关重要。这需要关注监管、税收和生活质量基础设施，同时还要着眼于留住最优秀的人才。不幸地是，强大的政治力量正作用于相反方向。美英在未来的许多年可能将付出高昂代价。

　　作者：美国耶鲁大学教授杰弗里·加滕为英国《金融时报》撰稿