That easy prediction has turned out to be wrong. Mars， the world's biggest confectionery company， has announced that its entire cocoa supply will be “produced in a sustainable manner” by 2020. Mars will work largely with the Rainforest Alliance， which encourages farmers to preserve their environment.

　　这个简单的预测已经被证明是错误的。全球最大的糖果公司玛氏（Mars）宣布，到2020年前，该公司使用的所有可可豆都将来自以“可持续的方式生产”的供应源。玛氏将与雨林联盟（Rainforest Alliance）进行大量合作，该组织致力于鼓励农民保护其种植环境。

　　Mars's move follows the announcement last month by Cadbury， the UK confectionery group，that all the cocoa in Dairy Milk， Britain's biggest-selling chocolate，would be certified by Fairtrade， the organisation that works to ensure a minimum price for farmers.

　　此前，3月份时英国糖果集团吉百利（Cadbury）宣布称， 英国最畅销的巧克力——吉百利牛奶巧克力（Dairy Milk）中采用的所有可可豆将会得到公平贸易组织的认证。该组织旨在确保农民获得的收购价格有一个最低限制。

　　The two chocolate makers were preceded by Wal-Mart， the world's biggest retailer， which told a meeting of 1，000 Chinese suppliers last year that it would hold them to strict environmental and social standards， the downturn notwithstanding.

　　全球最大的零售商沃尔玛（Wal-Mart）走在了这两家巧克力制造商的前面。去年，在有1000多家中国供应商参加的会议上，沃尔玛宣布，尽管经济低迷，但它将要求供应商遵循严格的环境和社会标准。

　　Why are these companies acting in a way few expected？ First， there are substantial business reasons. When Mars and Cadbury talk about their cocoa supplies being sustainable， they mean it. Chocolate manufacturers are worried about how much cocoa will be available a decade from now.

　　为何这些公司的行事方式几乎无人预见到？首先，这里面存在切实的商业原因。当玛氏和吉百利表示要实现可可豆供应的可持续性时，它们的确是这个意思。巧克力制造商对从现在开始的10年内能够实现的可可产量感到担忧。

　　Worldwide cocoa production fell in 2008 for the fourth successive year. Cadbury says it is worried about how few cocoa farmers' children intend to go into the business. It is hoping the investment in farms that Fairtrade encourages will persuade them cocoa farming is a worthwhile occupation.

　　去年，全球可可产量连续第四年出现下降。吉百利表示，它担心可可豆农的子女中几乎没有人打算从事可可豆种植。它希望，公平贸易组织所鼓励的对农场的投资能使他们相信，可可豆种植是一份值得从事的职业。

　　Wal-Mart also has commercial reasons for its stance. The company has been encouraging companies to cut down on packaging. This enables it to fit more goods into each delivery truck， not only reducing its emissions， but also cutting the amount it spends on petrol. Its insistence that manufacturers produce concentrated laundry detergent has allowed it to save on both packaging and shelf space. Cost-cutting is vital to beating the downturn and if companies can boost their green credentials at the same time， why not？

　　沃尔玛的立场也有其商业原因。它一直在鼓励企业简化包装。这样它能够在每辆运货车里面多装一些货物，从而不仅能减少发车次数，还能减少在汽油上的花费。它坚持要求制造商生产浓缩洗衣粉的主张使它得以节省包装成本和货架空间。削减成本对于安然度过经济低迷至关重要，而如果与此同时，企业能够提升它们的绿色资质，那何乐而不为呢？

　　But the companies go further. Not only do their announcements make business sense， they say；consumers， even now， insist on them. Fiona Dawson，Mars UK's managing director，says customers expect the company to “do the right thing”，adding that “nobody has to buy confectionery”。

　　但这些企业又更进一步。它们表示，它们所宣布的举措不仅仅具有商业意义；此时甚至连消费者也开始坚持要求它们这么做了。玛氏英国分公司董事总经理菲奥娜·道森（Fiona Dawson）表示，顾客希望公司“做出正确之举”，并补充说，“没有人必须得买糖果”。

　　There are many things that consumers do not have to buy， and plenty they can buy more cheaply. As the Financial Times has reported， US families earning more than $100，000 a year are using more discount coupons.  

　　有许多东西都不是消费者非买不可的，还有许多东西他们能以更低的价格购买。英国《金融时报》曾经报道，美国年收入在10万美元以上的家庭开始更多地使用优惠券了。

　　Yet there is little sign of committed consumers abandoning Fairtrade products. A recent report by Mintel， the research organisation， says： “Although a third of shoppers have cut down on the number of premium foods they buy， only one in 10 has cut back on ethical produce.” Justin King， chief executive of J Sainsbury， the UK retailer， said in February that its Fairtrade sales were holding up well.

　　不过，几乎没有迹象表明忠诚的消费者会放弃公平贸易产品。研究机构敏特（Mintel）最近发布的一份报告表示：“尽管三分之一的消费者减少了优质食品的购买量，但只有十分之一的人减少了良知产品（ethical produce）的购买量。”英国零售商森宝利（J Sainsbury）的首席执行官贾斯廷·金（Justin King）在2月份表示，该公司公平贸易产品的销售保持良好。

　　However， consumer attitudes are complex. Mike Barry， head of corporate social responsibility at rival retailer Marks and Spencer， says consumers are happy to continue to buy what they see as ethically sourced goods – provided they do not have to pay more. M？&？S's research says the number of “green crusaders” – those who buy ethical goods， no matter what， is about 9 per cent of the total， slightly down from the proportion at the start of the recession.

　　不过，消费者的态度是复杂的。森宝利的竞争对手——零售商玛莎百货（Marks and Spencer）企业社会责任部的主管迈克·巴里（Mike Barry）表示，消费者将很乐意继续购买他们认为采购渠道符合道德良知的商品——前提是他们无需支付更高的价格。玛莎百货的研究显示，“绿色支持者” ——即无论如何都会购买良知商品的人——在整个消费群体中约占9%，比衰退初期的比例略有下降。

　　About a fifth of consumers are uninterested in such issues and about a third cannot see what difference their purchasing makes. But the biggest group， about 40 per cent， are those who are prepared to buy ethical goods if companies make it easy， which generally means not making it expensive.

　　约有五分之一的消费者对这类问题不感兴趣，约有三分之一的人看不出他们的购买行为能起到什么作用。但人数最多的一组消费者（大约40%）表示，如果企业使这些商品的购买变得容易——通常是指不要让它们变得昂贵——他们就准备购买良知商品。