中国工商银行（ICBC）行长杨凯生表示，未来五年内，中国四大上市银行可能面临总计至少4800亿元人民币（合700亿美元）的资本缺口。以市值计，工行是全球最大的银行。

　　过去一个月里，中国这些最大型银行全都宣布了筹集新资本以充实自身资产负债表的计划。去年，中国出现了前所未有的信贷狂潮。

　　但各大银行计划筹资的总额，仍远低于杨凯生对未来五年资本缺口的估算。

　　杨凯生昨日在一份中国报纸上撰文写道，考虑到这一巨大的资本缺口，若仅靠向资本市场融资来解决这一问题，其难度显然是存在的。

　　杨凯生表示，他提出的这4800亿元人民币缺口还仅仅是测算了贷款增长所带来的资本占用因素，“如果进一步考虑市场风险和操作风险的因素，其资本占用还将进一步增加”。

　　他写道：“若再加上资本定义日渐趋严的因素，银行资本缺口将更为显著。”

　　杨凯生表示，他的估算是基于当前11.5%的资本充足率要求、今后五年年均12%的净利润增幅和年均15%的贷款增幅。

　　作为政府主导的应对金融危机努力的一部分，中国各银行去年总计发放了9.6万亿元人民币新增贷款，是前年新增贷款总额的两倍多。

　　杨凯生写道，允许银行通过资产证券化将贷款转让给投资者，是解决资本缺口问题的一个有效方式。

　　标准普尔（Standard & Poor's）分析师廖强表示：“工行多年来一直在推广证券化和资产支持证券（ABS）产品。尽管这类产品在中国仍处在萌芽阶段，但中国政府未来很可能会对它们进行进一步的推广。”

　　中国政府对允许银行进行贷款证券化一直持非常审慎的态度，过去启动的几个试点项目在全球金融危机期间被暂停。

　　在四大上市银行中，工行、交通银行（Bank of Communications）和中国银行（Bank of China）已宣布了在香港和上海发售可转债及股票的计划，而中国建设银行（China Construction Bank）也已表示，打算通过类似渠道筹集新资本。

　　惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）驻北京分析师朱夏莲（Charlene Chu）表示：“目前的环境很适合筹资。而且，如果这些银行希望维持自身的进一步增长，它们也确实需要筹集新资本。”

　　CHINA BANKS FACE $70BN GAP

　　China's four biggest publicly traded banks could face a combined capital shortfall of at least Rmb480bn ($70bn) over the next five years, according to the president of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's biggest bank by market value.

　　All of China's largest banks have announced plans in the past month to raise fresh capital to shore up their balance sheets after an unprecedented credit binge last year.

　　But the total amounts they plan to raise fall far short of the five-year estimate of Yang Kaisheng, ICBC president .

　　Given the sheer size of the shortfall, the banks will find it very difficult to rely solely on Chinese capital markets to fill the gap, Mr Yang wrote in an article published in a Chinese newspaper yesterday.

　　Mr Yang said his Rmb480bn estimate only included the extra capital that would be required as a result of steady lending growth “but if we consider the market risks and operational risks the amount of capital needed will be greater”.

　　“If regulatory requirements become stricter then the capital shortfall will be even more severe,” he wrote.

　　Mr Yang said his estimate was based on the current required capital adequacy ratio of 11.5 per cent, net profit growth of 12 per cent and loan growth of 15 per cent over the next five years.

　　As part of a state-led response to the financial crisis, Chinese banks extended Rmb9,600bn in new loans last year, more than double the amount they lent in 2008.

　　One solution to the banks' expected capital shortfall would be to allow them greater freedom to resell and securitise loans, Mr Yang wrote.

　　“ICBC has been promoting securitisation and asset-backed security products for years and although these are still in their infant stage in China the government is likely to promote them more in the future,” said Liao Qiang, an analyst at Standard & Poor's.

　　The Chinese government has been very cautious about allowing banks to carry out securitisation of loans and most of the few pilot projects that did exist were put on hold during the global financial crisis.

　　Among the four biggest listed Chinese banks, ICBC, Bank of Communications and Bank of China have already announced plans to sell convertible bonds and shares in Hong Kong and Shanghai while China Construction Bank has said it also intended to raise fresh capital through similar channels.

　　“It's a fairly good environment to be raising funds right now, and if they want to support further growth the banks do need to raise additional capital,” said Charlene Chu, an analyst at Fitch Ratings in Beijing.