China and the US have the basis for an agreement at the summit of the Group of 20 leading nations next month on setting targets to cut trade imbalances, according to an adviser to the Chinese central bank.

　　中国央行的一名顾问表示，在下月20国集团(G20)峰会期间，中美两国在确立削减贸易失衡的目标方面具有达成一致的基础。

　　Li Daokui, a member of the central bank’s monetary policy committee and professor at Tsinghua University, said there had been “good progress” at the weekend meeting of G20 finance ministers in South Korea which had moved debate from the “surface issue” of nominal exchange rates to “talking about the substance of rebalancing world trade”.

　　中国央行货币政策委员会委员、清华大学教授李稻葵表示，上周末在韩国举行的G20财长会议取得了“良好进展”，各方的辩论超越了名义汇率这一“表面议题”，转向了“讨论调整世界贸易平衡的实质”。

　　“China should not be afraid of numerical targets for reducing its trade surplus,” Mr Li told the Financial Times. “China is well positioned politically and economically to make this adjustment.”

　　“中国不应惧怕减少贸易盈余的数字目标，”李稻葵对英国《金融时报》表示。“中国在政治上和经济上都处于有利地位，能够做出这种调整。”

　　China has pushed back strongly against US pressure for a rapid appreciation of its currency, the political and economic dispute at the heart of fears about a global “currency war”.

　　中国一直强烈抵制美国要求让人民币快速升值的压力，中美之间的这一政治和经济纠纷，正是各方担心全球“汇率战争”的症结所在。

　　However, although Mr Li is an adviser to the central bank rather than a policymaker, his comments suggest support in China for the US proposal of setting limits on current account surpluses and deficits at about 4 per cent of GDP. “I was very encouraged by the G20 meeting,” Mr Li said. “It is now possible for the two governments [the US and China] and other governments to have a good understanding.”

　　不过，虽然李稻葵并非政策制定者，而是中国央行的一名顾问，但他的言论似乎表明，中国方面有人支持美方的提议，即对经常账户盈余或赤字设定上限，使其不超出国内生产总值(GDP)的4%左右。“最近这次G20会议使我深受鼓舞，”李稻葵表示。“现在（中美）两国政府乃至其它国家的政府有可能达成良好的谅解。”

　　Several articles in the Chinese business press have also indicated that the government would be comfortable with the surplus target at that level.

　　中国财经报刊上的数篇文章也暗示，中国政府将能够接受上述水平的盈余目标。

　　New Delhi is less enthusiastic. Pranab Mukherjee, India’s finance minister, said that the G20 needed to adopt “a formula based on country specific solutions” and avoid a “straitjacket” of general numerical targets.

　　印度方面则没有那么热情。印度财长普拉纳博•穆克吉(Pranab Mukherjee)表示，G20需要采纳“基于各国具体解决方案的公式”，避免普遍数字目标的“紧箍咒”。

　　He warned that any broad policy guidelines to level out deficits and surpluses, might endanger the “normal” functioning of the global economy.

　　他警告称，任何旨在抑制赤字和盈余的宽泛政策指引，都有可能危及全球经济的“正常”运行。

　　Mr Mukherjee said that India had no plans to impose limits on capital flows into its economy in spite of concerns about accommodative monetary policy in developed economies pushing volatile funds into emerging markets.

　　穆克吉表示，印度没有限制资本流入本国经济的计划，尽管有人担心，发达经济体的宽松货币政策正将善变的资金推向新兴市场。

　　“I am confident that with the flow of foreign institutional investment, invisibles and foreign exchange availability we will be able to contain the current account deficit at between 3 per cent and 3.5 per cent of GDP,” he said. The Chinese government has said little in public on the US plan, although Yi Gang, a central bank deputy governor, said two weeks ago that policymakers aimed to reduce the surplus to 4 per cent of GDP over the next three to five years.

　　“我相信，按照目前的外国机构投资流动、无形收支项目以及外汇可获得性，我们将能够把经常账户赤字遏制在GDP的3%至3.5%，”他表示。中国政府迄今在公开场合对美方的计划几乎未作任何表示，不过央行副行长易纲两周前表示，政策制定者们力求在今后三至五年内，将中国的盈余削减至GDP的4%。

　　Mr Li said that China’s external surplus was already falling because of rising wages, strong consumption and industries relocating to inland provinces. “Market forces are pushing China to make this adjustment, whether we want to or not,” he said.

　　李稻葵表示，中国的国际收支盈余已经在下降，原因是国内工资不断上涨、消费强劲，以及多个产业正向内陆省份转移。“市场力量正在推动中国做出这一调整，不管我们是否愿意。”

　　In the past, China has usually opposed targets imposed from outside, but it regularly uses self-imposed targets for domestic economic management.

　　以往中国通常反对外部施加的目标，但在国内经济管理中，经常使用自我施加的目标。