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不靠谱的股票分析师（双语）
It's the time of year when brokers are likely to offer you their top stock recommendations for the new year.
每年的这个时候，股票经纪往往都会列出他们作为新年推荐的优选股。
'These are the stocks to own in 2011,' they'll say. 'They're the ones our analysts recommend most strongly right now.' Then they'll tell you all sorts of compelling reasons their analysts love the stocks, possibly coupled with impressive 'price targets' for the year.
他们会说，这些是2011年的必持股票，是我们的分析师当前最强烈推荐的。然后他们会告诉你分析师锺爱这些股票的一大堆极具说服力的理由，可能还会配上让人印象深刻的年内“目标价”。
Should you take their advice?
你该接受这些建议吗？
Before you do, take a look at how their recommendations fared last year. And the years before that.
在接受之前，看看他们去年推荐的那些股票表现如何吧。还有前年的。
I thought I'd do just that.
我想我肯定会这么做的。
So I contacted Thomson Reuters, which tracks the recommendations of Wall Street analysts.
于是我联系了汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)，他们对华尔街分析师推荐的股票进行跟踪。
I asked them for the 10 stocks that analysts rated most highly a year ago. That meant the stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 index with the most 'buy' and 'strong buy' recommendations, the fewest 'sells' (let alone 'strong sells') and the best average rating overall.
我让他们列出10只分析师一年前评价最高的股票。也就是说，标普500指数成份股中获得“买进”和“强烈买进”推荐最多、“卖出”最少（“强烈卖出”就不用提了），以及整体平均评级最佳的股票。
These stocks were the cool kids on the Street. The ones everyone wanted to hang with. The stocks that fund managers brag about owning when they're at the squash club.
这些股票是华尔街的“酷孩子”。所有人都想拥有它们。当它们还泯然于众时基金经理们就大吹大擂说要持有。
The names ranged from chemical company FMC and printer R.R. Donnelley & Sons to tobacco company Lorillard.
这些股票从化学品公司FMC、印刷公司R.R. Donnelley & Sons到烟草公司Lorillard，不一而足。
How did they do?
它们表现如何呢？
Not bad. If you'd invested $1,000 in each one a year ago, your $10,000 stake would have grown to nearly $12,400 today .
【我要纠错】 责任编辑：梓墨
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