Automotive officials predicted slower growth in China's market this year, even as big car makers prepared to unveil new models at the Shanghai auto show─an event that will highlight the country's importance to the global industry.

　　正当大型汽车制造商为在上海车展推出新车型而摩拳擦掌时，汽车业官员却预计，今年中国汽车市场增速将放缓。上海车展将凸显出中国对于全球汽车业的重要性。

　　Speaking at a forum Monday, a day ahead of the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition, a senior government official warned that auto makers in the world's largest car market risk being left with excess capacity if they don't adjust to slower sales growth.

　　 Bloomberg News在周一举行的上海汽车展开幕前，人们在观看一辆全新设计的大众甲克虫。上海国际汽车工业展览会(Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition)开幕前一天，中国政府一位高官周一在论坛上讲话时提醒说，中国这个世界上最大的汽车市场销售增速将减缓，如果汽车制造商不能适应这一局面，可能会面临生产能力过剩的风险。

　　"We haven't seen overcapacity in China's auto market in the past few years, but if auto makers keep output growth at the current pace, China's auto market will see overcapacity sooner or later," said Su Bo, deputy industry and technology minister.

　　中国工业和信息化部副部长苏波说，过去几年，我们认为中国汽车市场不存在产能过剩的问题，但如果汽车制造商保持目前的产量增速，中国汽车市场迟早会出现产能过剩。

　　China's annual auto shows─which alternate between Beijing and Shanghai─have become a major event for the industry, as China overtook the U.S. in 2009 to become the world's biggest car market. But a sales slowdown in China is presenting new challenges for auto makers, who are adopting different strategies to cope.

　　随着中国2009年超过美国一举成为全球最大的汽车市场，中国每年一度的车展(由北京和上海轮流举办)已成为汽车业的一大盛事。但中国汽车销售减速正给汽车制造商带来新挑战，这些制造商正纷纷采取不同的应对战略。

　　Car sales in China rose 8.8% from a year earlier in the first quarter to 4.98 million vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sharply lower than the growth of 71.8% recorded in the first quarter of 2010.

　　据中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)的统计，今年一季度中国汽车销量同比增8.8%，至498万辆，远远低于2010年一季度71.8%的增速。

　　Foreign auto makers differ in their response to the slowdown. Some, such as General Motors Co. of the U.S., are coming up with low-cost China-only brands to appeal to middle-class buyers.

　　外国汽车制造商对中国汽车销售减速持不同看法。美国通用汽车公司(General Motors Co.)等一些汽车制造商为吸引为中产阶级，正在推出只面向中国市场的低成本汽车品牌。

　　GM plans to unveil at the Shanghai show the first car produced under the company's new China-only brand, Baojun. Made with local joint-venture partners Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. and Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co., the car "will address the growing demand across the country for affordable personal transportation," GM China President Kevin Wale said in a written statement.

　　 通用汽车计划在上海车展上推出中国市场专有品牌宝骏(Baojun)的首款车型。这款汽车由通用汽车与中国合资企业伙伴上海汽车工业(集团)总公司(Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp.)和柳州五菱汽车有限责任公司(Liuzhou Wuling Motors Co.)共同生产。通用汽车中国公司总裁甘文维(Kevin Wale)在一份书面声明中说，宝骏汽车将满足中国人不断增长的对负担得起的个人交通工具的需求。

　　GM's China auto sales rose 10% from a year earlier in the first quarter, about one-third as fast as they rose in the year-earlier quarter. Still, GM also said Monday that it expects to double its sales in China to about five million vehicles by 2015 from about 2.35 million in 2010─in part by introducing more than 60 new models and major product upgrades in the country.

　　通用汽车中国公司今年一季度汽车销量同比增10%，是去年一季度增幅的约三分之一。尽管如此，通用汽车周一说，预计该公司在中国市场上的销量到2015年将增至500万辆左右，是2010年约235万辆的两倍，实现这一目标的方式之一是要推出60余款新车型，并对中国销售的汽车进行大规模的产品升级。

　　Luxury car makers such as Daimler AG of Germany say they believe any challenges that are facing the mass market don't apply to China's new rich. China sales of Daimler's Mercedes-Benz vehicles surged 86% in the first quarter, although the brand's total number of cars sold was a small fraction of GM's.

　　 德国戴姆勒公司(Daimler AG)等豪华汽车制造商说，他们认为中国市场面临的任何挑战都不适用于中国的新富阶层。戴姆勒公司旗下的梅赛德斯——奔驰(Mercedes-Benz)汽车在中国市场上今年一季度的销量猛增86%，不过这一品牌售出的汽车总量只相当于通用销量的很小一部分。

　　Daimler's Northeast Asia chairman, Ulrich Walker, said last week he expects China sales of Mercedes-Benz cars to rise 20% this year. Premium-car sales haven't been affected as much by the slowdown as small-car sales, Mr. Walker said.

　　 戴姆勒东北亚地区董事长华立新(Ulrich Walker)上周说，他预计中国市场梅赛德斯-奔驰的销量今年将上升20%，豪华汽车销量受中国汽车市场整体销售减速的影响并不像小型汽车那么大。

　　The Shanghai auto show will also be overshadowed by questions about the impact of the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, as well as a continuing nuclear-power crisis, on Japan's big car companies.

　　3月11日地震和海啸以及仍在上演的核电危机将对日本各大汽车公司产生何种影响，这方面的问题也将给上海汽车展蒙上阴影。

　　Despite domestic production problems, Honda Motor Co., Nissan Motor Co., and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. all said their chief executives plan to attend the Shanghai show. Toyota Motor Corp. said it will monitor its quake-disrupted domestic operations before deciding whether President Akio Toyoda will attend.

　　虽然国内生产有问题，本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)、日产汽车(Nissan Motor Co.)和三菱汽车(Mitsubishi Motors Corp.)说，它们的首席执行长都计划参加上海车展。丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)说，它将在监测受地震中断的国内运营之后，再决定总裁丰田章男(Akio Toyoda)是否出席。

　　Honda CEO Takanobu Ito's planned attendance at Shanghai was initially canceled after last month's disaster, a Honda spokeswoman said. 'But eventually we concluded he should go' given China's growing importance as a growth driver for Honda, she said.

　　本田一位发言人说，上个月灾难发生后，公司先是取消了CEO伊东孝绅(Takanobu Ito)出席上海车展的计划。但她说，考虑到中国作为本田增长助推器越来越重要的地位，最后我们认为他应当前往。

　　Nissan decided to attend the event because the company's foreign rivals, which are less troubled by the disruption in Japan-made parts procurement, are set to unveil a series of new concept cars to entice local customers at the show, a Nissan spokesman said.

　　日产一位发言人说，该公司决定参展，是因为其国外竞争对手受日制零部件供应中断的困扰没有其那么大，预计将在展会上公布一系列新型概念车吸引中国客户。

　　The broad market slowdown in China has been driven by several factors, including higher oil prices, restrictions on car purchases in cities such as Beijing to alleviate traffic conditions, and the expiration of tax incentives for the purchases of smaller cars, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

　　中国汽车工业协会(China Association of Automobile Manufacturers)说，中国汽车市场的整体放缓是受到了多种因素的影响，其中包括油价升高、北京等城市限制汽车购买以缓解交通状况，以及购买小排量汽车的税收优惠措施到期等。

　　The association has forecast that car sales will rise in a range of 10% to 15% this year. But at a briefing earlier this month, the group expressed concern that growth may fall behind even those relatively modest estimates. Total sales rose 32% last year to 18.1 million vehicles, following growth of 46% in 2009.

　　 汽车工业协会曾预计今年汽车销量增幅在10%到15%之间。但在本月早前的一次吹风会上，该协会担心实际增幅可能比这种相对不高的估计数字还低。去年总销量是1,810万辆，增长32%，2009年增速为46%。

　　Zeng Qinghong, vice chairman of Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., said he believes China's auto market can post sales growth of at least 10% this year, as auto sales usually rebound from May.

　　广州汽车工业集团有限公司(Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.)副董事长曾庆洪说，他相信今年中国市场销售增长率至少可以达到10%，因为汽车销量常常从5月份开始反弹。

　　Others were less optimistic. Joe Hinrichs, president of Ford Motor Co.'s Asian-Pacific and Africa operations, said he expects China's overall auto sales to rise in a range of 5% to 10% this year, a pace that he described as "more rational" than in previous years.

　　其他人没有这么乐观。福特汽车公司(Ford Motor Co.)亚太与非洲区总裁辛瑞奇(Joe Hinrichs)说，他预计今年中国市场汽车总销量增长幅度在5%到10%，他说，这样的增速相比前几年“更加理性”。

　　The automobile manufacturers association has argued that the auto industry is a "pillar industry" for China, and that some of the small-car tax subsidies that have expired will likely be restored if auto-sales growth falls behind economic growth, which is generally expected to be about 9.5% this year.

　　 中国汽车工业协会曾说，汽车工业是中国的“支柱产业”，如果汽车销量增长落后于经济增长，那么已经到期的部分小排量汽车税收补贴措施可能会恢复。今年中国经济增长速度普遍预测为9.5%。

　　Mr. Su, the vice minister, said the "unsustainable sales surge" of 2009 and 2010 isn't likely to be maintained. But he also emphasized that the industry has strong long-term prospects.

　　 工信部副部长苏波说，2009年和2010年不可持续的销量增长不太可能维持。但他也强调说，汽车行业长期前景不错。

　　"China still has big potential for a long-term sales growth, and China will be the largest auto market for a long time," Mr. Su said, citing the pickup in demand in rural areas and China's second- and third-tier cities. China has only 58 cars per 1,000 people currently, he added, showing vast room for further growth.

　　苏波说，中国市场仍有很大的长期销售增长潜力，中国将长时间维持最大汽车市场的地位。其理由是农村地区和二三线城市需求的增长。他说，中国当前每1,000人只有58辆汽车，说明还有巨大的进一步增长空间。