Domestic imperatives rather than the tinkering of political leaders will likely close the trade gap between the United States and China, a top economist said Friday. 美国一位知名经济学家上周五说，有望缩小美国与中国之间贸易差额的，与其说是政治领导人的小打小闹，不如说是美国国内已经存在的各种动力。

　　Harvard University economic professor Martin Feldstein made the case that a series of forces already in play will help do what political leaders have failed to accomplish, which is put in place a path to help rebalance a relationship that sees a massive outflow of dollars from the U.S. into Chinese hands. This imbalance is a major driver of America’s overall trade deficit, and become a major political problem complicating the two nations’ relationship. 哈佛大学经济学教授费尔德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)认为，一系列已经在发挥作用的力量将有助于完成政治领导人没有完成的任务，那就是帮助恢复美中经济关系的平衡，不再让美元从美国大量流入中国人手中。这种失衡是美国整体贸易赤字的一个重要成因，并已成为一个让两国关系复杂化的政治问题。

　　Feldstein’s outlook will strike many as overly optimistic, given that the U.S. and others have been working with little apparent success to induce the Chinese to allow the yuan, which is currently pegged to the dollar, to rise relative to the greenback. While Chinese authorities have allowed a very modest appreciation of late, many have said what has happened is insufficient to redress a situation almost all view as unsustainable. 很多人会觉得费尔德斯坦的这番展望过于乐观，毕竟美国和其他国家都在努力诱导中方允许人民币相对美元升值，取得的成功似乎却是微乎其微。目前人民币同美元挂钩，虽然中国有关部门最近允许人民币以非常温和的幅度升值，但很多人说过，已有的升值不足以纠正一个几乎所有人都认为不可持续的局势。

　　The relationship between the dollar and the yuan even became a sticking point in the Federal Reserve’s effort to stimulate the economy by buying longer-term U.S. government debt. For a time that action depressed the dollar and made Chinese goods even cheaper in global markets. That frustrated European authorities dealing with their own economic problems, and angered Chinese leaders, who were already trying to deal with signs of inflation and economic overheating in their own economy. 美元与人民币的关系，甚至成了美联储(Federal Reserve)通过购买较长期美国国债刺激经济的一个争议之处。一段时间内，此举将压低美元汇率，使中国商品在美国以外的其他市场更加便宜。这使正在处理自身经济问题的欧洲当局，以及已经面临通胀和经济过热迹象的中国领导人大为不满。

　　Feldstein, who was speaking at an economics conference in Denver, is not counting on the political class to solve the problem. Instead, he believes the U.S dollar needs to be allowed to fall, U.S. households need to save more, and government budget deficits need to shrink. 费尔德斯坦是在丹佛市一个经济论坛上发表这些观点的，他不指望政治家能够解决问题。相反，他认为美元需要被允许下跌，美国家庭需要提高储蓄，政府预算赤字需要降低。

　　The academic reckons all of these things are possible, even probable. “Substantial progress will be made over the next several years” on the required fronts. He’s hopeful on budget deficits due to an improving economy and what he hopes will be an increased realization among elected leaders borrowing must be lowered to a more sustainable path. 这位学者认为这一切都是有可能的，甚至是大有可能。未来几年，这些问题的解决将会取得“长足进步”。他对预算赤字问题表示乐观，是因为经济在改善，并且他预计民选领导人将越来越多地认识到借款规模必须降低到更可持续的水平。

　　On the China side of the equation, Feldstein expects contributions as well. First, he notes that the real value of yuan appreciation is quite a bit higher than what officials are implementing relative to their dollar peg, which is helpful. How so? Feldstein points to the impact of higher Chinese price inflation relative to the very low price gains seen in the U.S., which he says drives up the “real” value of the yuan relative to the dollar. 费尔德斯坦预计，中国这边也会做出贡献。首先他指出，人民币实际汇率的升值比官方相对于美元实施的升值快很多，而这是有助于化解失衡的。为什么这么说呢？费尔德斯坦提到了中国物价上涨比美国更快的影响。他说，这种情况提高了人民币相对于美元的“实际”汇率。

　　The economist also sees Chinese policies creating the conditions for better levels of domestic spending, noting “it is important these policies are rooted in domestic considerations.” 这位经济学家还认为，中国的政策为国内支出水平的提高创造了条件，而重要的是，这些政策是基于国内的考虑而出台的。

　　Feldstein’s ideas are controversial. For one, his optimism that the U.S. can get its fiscal house in order confronts a very fractious political environment. For all the talk of lowering deficits, the incoming Republican congress has already backed away from its commitment to trim $100 billion from government spending, while pushing through a largely symbolical health care reform repeal the Congressional Budget Office says would actually worsen the long term outlook for the budget, if it succeeded. Right now, it remains very unclear where a reduced budget deficit will come from.

　　费尔德斯坦的观点存在争议。首先，他乐观地认为美国可以让财政状况回归有序，这与一个动辄不满的政治环境不符。尽管大家都在说降低赤字，即将履行职权的共和党国会已经放弃将政府支出削减1,000亿美元的承诺，同时推动一项基本上只是象征性的撤销医疗改革行动，国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)认为该行动如果成功，事实上将恶化长期预算前景。降低预算赤字从何从开刀，目前仍旧是非常不明朗。