For Asian market watchers, there’s been a pretty clear divergence across emerging markets in the past few months. Known either as the ‘north-over-south’ trade, or the exporter trade, investors shifted their money out of domestically driven southeast Asia, and into the export markets of South Korea and Taiwan.

　　对亚洲股市观察人士来说，过去几个月里，各新兴市场股市的表现出现了非常明显的背离。投资者纷纷把资金撤离东南亚的国内驱动型经济体，转投韩国和台湾这两个出口导向型市场。这被称之为“买北抛南”交易或出口方交易。

　　But, if the past few days are anything to go by, the trade may already be reversing.

　　不过，如果从过去几天的情况来判断，上述交易趋势可能已发生逆转。

　　Since late November, southeast Asian markets have been in volatile mood. The big bull markets of 2010 – Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand – all seemed to lost their vim. Some trading sessions in the new year have seen heavy selling. Investment downgrades have followed suit.

　　去年11月底以来，东南亚股市一直处在大幅波动之中。2010年经历了大牛市的印尼、菲律宾和泰国股市，似乎全都丧失了动力。在今年的某些交易日，曾出现猛烈的抛售。东南亚股市的投资评级也随之遭到下调。

　　As investment banks unveiled their 2011 forecasts, there was a near universal consensus – sell SE Asia, buy Korea and Taiwan. Both of those markets went on a run, with investors betting that a US recovery would boost export-driven economies. Citi’s Markus Rosgen says that the north over south divergence will continue until the middle of 2011.

　　随着投行纷纷发布2011年的预测，几乎所有人都形成了一个共识：卖出东南亚股票，买进韩国和台湾股票。由于投资者押注美国经济复苏将提振出口驱动型经济体，韩国和台湾股市都出现了一波涨势。花旗(Citi)的乐志勤(Markus Rosgen)表示，亚洲北部地区股市相对南部的背离，将一直持续到2011年年中。

　　But February has so far told a different story. In Taiwan, for example, foreign investors have sold a net T$83.3bn so far this month, compared to buying net T$99.3bn in January. This ended a five-month run of net inflows from foreign investors into the Taiwan stock market.

　　但步入2月份以来，我们却看到了另一番景象。例如在台湾，2月份迄今为止海外投资者已净卖出价值833亿元新台币的台湾股票——相比之下，他们在1月份净买入了价值993亿元新台币的台湾股票。海外资金连续5个月净流入台湾股市的趋势由此画上了句号。

　　On Wednesday alone they sold net T$1.57bn and the Taiex fell almost 2 percent.

　　仅在周三一天，海外投资者就净卖出了价值15.7亿元新台币的台湾股票，台湾加权指数(Taiex)下跌了近2%。

　　UBS says it’s time to get out of the trade, this from Niall MacLeod and his team.

　　瑞银(UBS)的尼尔·麦克劳德(Niall MacLeod)及其团队表示，现在是时候退出“买北抛南”交易了。

　　"The combination of what we expect to be peaking leading indicators in the coming months allied with reasonably firm relative valuations leaves little left in the tank in our view for what was essentially a 'macro' trade that started last November: the 'exporter trade' looks to be largely behind us."

　　“我们认为，我们所预期的、在未来数月会让领先指标见顶的各种因素，以及适度坚挺的相对估值，已让这波始字去年11月份、本质上属于‘宏观’交易的趋势几乎完全丧失了动力：看来，‘出口方交易’基本上已成为过去时。”

　　In the process, UBS have downgraded their views of Korea and Taiwan to underweight.

　　在此过程中，瑞银已将韩国和台湾股市的评级下调为“减持”。

　　"Cyclicals in general and Taiwan and Korea have tended to struggle in relative terms after leading indicators peaked – whilst the absolute valuations are not yet 'expensive', relative to the rest of Asia the PB is back to near peak levels since 2003. As such we cut the markets to underweight."

　　“在领先指标见顶之后，台湾、韩国股市与整体股市的周期性因素已成此消彼长之势——尽管这两个股市的绝对估值尚称不上‘昂贵’，但它们相对亚洲其余股市的市净率已回升至2003年以来的最高水平附近。据此，我们把台湾、韩国股市的评级下调为减持。”

　　While investors who are long these markets might not have much cause for cheer, it may come as welcome news to both central banks and corporates in both countries.

　　虽然做多这两个股市的投资者可能没有多少理由为此感到高兴，但它对台湾和韩国的央行与企业来说，或许算得上是好消息。

　　Taiwan’s central bank spent the better part of last year fending off hot money inflows that pushed the Taiwan dollar higher against the US dollar, breaching its key T$30 level and reaching a high of 28.8 – a level not seen since the before the Asian financial crisis. But since the start of the month, the Taiwan dollar has weakened, closing on Wednesday at 29.57 to the US dollar.

　　在去年的大部分时间里，台湾央行都在抵御热钱流入。热钱推高了新台币兑美元汇率，使其突破了1美元兑30元新台币关口，升至1美元兑28.8元新台币的高点——这是自亚洲金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。但自本月初以来，新台币汇率已经走低，周三收于1美元兑29.57元新台币。

　　Export-oriented companies who have been impacted by the rising Taiwan dollar are also breathing a sigh of relief. Morris Chang, chief executive of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, told reporters on Wednesday that the outflow of foreign hot money means that the Taiwan dollar’s exchange rate should become more stable over the next few months to half a year.

　　受新台币走高冲击的出口导向型企业，也因此松了一口气。台积电(Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)首席执行官张忠谋(Morris Chang)周三告诉记者，外国热钱的流出，意味着新台币汇率在未来数月至半年的时间里应该会变得更加稳定。台积电是全球最大的合同芯片制造商。

　　While events in the middle east and north Africa have surely hit investor sentiment towards all emerging markets, it’s worth noting that the two star performers since November have both fallen further than India since the start of the month. Indonesia, meanwhile, is back in positive territory.

　　中东和北非爆发的事件无疑让投资者对所有新兴市场的信心受到了影响，但值得注意的是，去年11月以来表现抢眼的台湾与韩国股市，本月初以来的跌幅却双双超过印度股市。与此同时，印尼股市已重拾升势。