The Federal Reserve is likely to begin closing a wide-open credit spigot this week─but faces a major decision: when to start draining the excess credit out of the economy by raising interest rates.

　　美联储(Federal Reserve)可能会在本周开始关紧大开的信贷龙头，同时也面临着一个重大决定：什么时候开始通过加息回笼经济体中的过量信贷资金。

　　Federal Reserve officials on Wednesday are expected to signal that in June they plan to end their controversial strategy of buying $600 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds to spur the economy. That would mark a milestone in the historic efforts by the central bank to stimulate economic growth.

　　预计美联储官员将在周三暗示，他们通过收购6,000亿美元国债来刺激经济的争议性策略将在6月份结束。这将标志着美联储为刺激经济增长而采取的这种历史性措施出现重要转折。

　　While analysts and investors debate whether the end to the bond-buying effort will have a significant impact on financial markets, the Fed is contemplating when and how to begin draining the credit it pumped into the economy during and after the global financial crisis. That tightening of credit still looks at least several months off, if not longer, and could take a while to unfold.

　　分析师和投资者在争论债券收购的结束是否会对金融市场产生重大影响，而美联储则在思考什么时候、通过什么方式开始回笼全球金融危机期间及过后向经济体注入的信贷资金。这种收紧信贷之举看起来至少也是几个月之后的事情，其实施过程可能也会需要一段时间。

　　Most Fed officials, as well as many economists and investors, think the end of the Fed's two major bond-buying efforts─often called ”quantitative easing“ or dubbed QE and QE2─will pass without any significant disruptions to markets or the economy.

　　美联储多位官员，以及很多经济学家和投资者都认为，美联储两轮大规模债券收购行动（通常称为“定量宽松”，简称QE和QE2）的结束不会给市场或经济造成任何较大的扰乱。

　　Laurence Kantor, head of research at Barclays Capital, argues that markets already reflect the widespread understanding that the Fed will stop buying bonds and will then hang on to its portfolio for some time. Its portfolio currently amounts to more than $2 trillion of securities, when counting Treasury bonds and mortgage debt.

　　巴克莱资本公司(Barclays Capital)研究部门负责人坎托(Laurence Kantor)说，从市场行情已经可以看出，投资者普遍认为美联储将停止购买债券，然后其资产组合将有一段时间保持不变。如果将美国国债和房贷债券包括在内，目前美联储持有的资产就是超过2万亿美元的证券。

　　Holding on to the securities the Fed has bought, the thinking goes, should keep markets stable. ”It's not the beginning of the Fed tightening, it's the end of the Fed easing,“ Mr. Kantor says.

　　Getty Images美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)这种想法认为，持有美联储已经购买的证券应当会让市场保持稳定。坎托说，这不是美联储收紧的开始，而是美联储宽松政策的结束。

　　Many believe such low interest rates will keep driving investors into assets that bring higher returns than Treasurys─pushing up stocks, commodities and other riskier assets.

　　很多人相信，目前的低利率将继续鼓励投资者买入回报高于美国国债的资产，从而推高股票、大宗商品和其他高风险资产的价格。

　　But a tame market response isn't certain. Some big investors worry that interest rates will rise when the Fed stops its purchases, which have amounted to 85% of all government debt sold by Treasury since the program started in November. In this view, when such a big buyer disappears, the markets are bound to feel the absence.

　　但市场的反应不一定是温和可控的。一些大投资者担心美联储停止收购时利率将会上升。自收购国债的计划在去年11月启动以来，美国财政部发行的全部国债中有85%被美联储收购。如此看来，当这么大的一个买家消失之后，市场肯定会有反应。

　　"When QE2 ends in June, then $1.5 trillion worth of check-writing per year basically disappears," says William Gross, who oversees the $1.2 trillion portfolio of Pacific Investment Management Co. "It will be a big event."

　　太平洋投资管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 1.2万亿美元投资的管理人格罗斯(William Gross)说，当QE2在6月份结束时，每年价值1.5万亿美元的购买量就消失了；这将是一件大事。

　　As investors adjust to the new dynamic, the transition away from the bond-buying strategy could mean an end to the roaring rally experienced by stocks, commodities and riskier bonds and currencies, and introduce a period of volatility.

　　随着投资者努力适应新的环境，美联储弃用收购债券的策略可能使股市、大宗商品和高风险债券与货币经历的飙升行情告一段落，然后进入一段波动时期。

　　Although Fed officials are almost certain to discuss the nature and timing of what they call their "exit strategy" at this week's two-day meeting, they aren't expected to give much firm guidance in their end-of-meeting statement or in the press conference that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold Wednesday afternoon.

　　虽然美联储官员几乎肯定要在本周为时两天的会议期间讨论所谓“退出策略”的性质和时间，但在会后声明或美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)周三下午举行的新闻发布会当中，预计他们不会给出多少明确的指引。

　　The keys to the timing of the Fed's exit are the health of the U.S. economy and level of inflation. The Fed expects unemployment to remain high and inflation to recede, but both are uncertain right now.

　　美联储何时退出，关键在于美国经济的健康状况和通胀水平。美联储预计失业率继续高企、同时通货膨胀减弱，但两方面目前都不确定。

　　Economic forecasters expect the U.S. Commerce Department to report Friday that the economy grew less than 2% in the first quarter, on an inflation-adjusted annual rate. Most blame bad weather, higher energy costs and the effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. They anticipate a rebound to 3% growth for the rest of the year.

　　经济分析师预计，美国商务部会在周五公布，美国经济第一季度经通胀因素调整后按年率计算增长了不到2%。大多数人将其归咎于恶劣的天气、能源成本上升以及日本地震和海啸的冲击。他们预计今年后三个季度的经济增幅会反弹至3%。

　　Inflation, meanwhile, has been pushed up by rising commodity prices. Top Fed officials have signaled that they expect this to be transitory. But if it persists, or if the public becomes more convinced inflation is on the rise, the Fed's patience could be tested.

　　与此同时，不断上涨的大宗商品价格一直在推高通胀。美联储高级官员已经表示，他们预计这种局面是暂时的。但如果这种状况持续下去，或者公众开始更确信通胀在升级，那么美联储的耐心就要接受考验了。

　　Fed officials on Wednesday will disclose their updated economic forecasts. They are likely to show higher 2011 inflation forecasts and could show a slight downgrade to the near-term growth outlook; the 2012 outlook might not change much.

　　美联储官员周三将发布最新的经济预测数据，2011年通胀预测数据可能会更高，短期增长前景展望可能会略有下调，2012年的展望可能不会有多大变化。

　　Some Fed officials are ready to get on with tightening credit either by raising short-term interest rates or selling off some of the Fed's portfolio of securities. But Mr. Bernanke and his closest lieutenants─Janet Yellen and William Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, which makes major interest-rate decisions─have indicated they aren't in a rush.

　　一些联储官员准备通过上调短期利率或出售联储部分证券组合继续收紧信贷。但贝南克及其最亲密的副手耶伦（Janet Yellen）和达德利（William Dudley）已经表示他们并不急于这样做。达德利是纽约联邦储备银行（Federal Reserve Bank of New York）行长和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）副主席，而FOMC负责做出重大的利率决定。

　　Markets currently anticipate the Fed will move to tighten credit at the very end of this year or early next. The economy, in other words, will remain awash in cheap credit.That view has helped to power the stock market recently.

　　目前市场预测美联储会在今年年末或明年年初收紧信贷。也就是说，美国经济依然会充满廉价信贷。这种观点最近助推了股市上涨。

　　In the view of many Fed officials, the second round of bond-buying─QE2─ fulfilled most of its goals: It chased away the threat of deflation, or falling consumer prices, and it sent investors into stocks and other assets riskier than Treasury debt, enlarging the net worth of stock investors and cheering business executives. In addition, though the Fed wasn't explicit about this objective, it nudged down the value of the dollar, giving U.S. exports a lift by making them more affordable in foreign-currency terms.

　　在许多联储官员看来，第二轮债券购买行动（也就是第二轮量化宽松）实现了大部分目标：驱除了通货紧缩或消费者价格下跌的威胁，让投资者涌入股市或其他比国债风险更高的资产，增大了股票投资者的净值，并让企业高管欢欣鼓舞。此外，尽管美联储没有明说，但这一政策确实导致了美元贬值，让美国出口商品折算成外币更便宜，从而提振了美国出口。

　　Critics say the Fed's actions also chased up commodities prices, draining household buying power. Fed officials counter that the commodity-price run has been driven by demand in developing countries combined with supply shortages.

　　批评人士说，美联储的行动还推高了大宗商品价格，削弱了家庭的购买力。美联储官员反驳称，大宗商品全线涨价是由发展中国家需求增加和供应不足两方面原因造成的。

　　Starting essentially last year on Aug. 27─the day Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke laid the groundwork for QE2─investors have flocked to riskier investments. Since Aug. 26 the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index has gained 28%. Smaller, generally riskier stocks have done even better, with the small-company Russell 2000 Index gaining 41%. It stands just 1.15 shy of its all-time high set in 2007.

　　自去年8月27日开始，也就是联储主席贝南克为QE2奠定基础那天开始，投资者纷纷涌向风险更高的投资。标准普尔500股指从8月26日以来攀升了28%。而成分股市值更小、总体而言投资风险更高的罗素2000指数涨了41%，只比2007年创下的历史最高水平低1.15点。

　　Corporate bonds have rallied and commodity prices have risen sharply, too. Gold is up 22% since Aug. 26 and silver is up 143%, both hitting nominal record highs. Even subprime mortgage securities, which were largely blamed for causing the financial crisis, are back in demand.

　　公司债券的价格也出现回升，大宗商品价格大幅上扬。金价自8月26日以来上涨22%，银价上涨143%，二者名义价格均创历史新高。就连被广泛指责造成此次金融危机的次级抵押贷款证券，其市场需求也在回升。

　　The biggest loser has been the U.S. dollar, the consequence of the Fed essentially printing more of them to buy bonds. The Fed's index of the value of the dollar against a broad basket of currencies is down 7.9% since Aug. 26.

　　美元一直是最大的输家，这是联储实际上印制更多钞票购买债券造成的。美联储用以跟踪美元兑一篮子货币汇率的指数自8月26日以来跌了7.9%。