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For the euro to grow into a happy and healthy adult, many things must happen. Most importantly, Europe needs to fix its banking system. Many European banks, starting with Germany's, are dangerously over-leveraged, undercapitalized and exposed to Greek, Irish and Portuguese debt. Rigorous stress tests followed by capital injections are the most important step that governments can take to secure the euro's place.
欧元想要健康快乐地长大,必须具备很多条件。其中最重要的是欧洲必须修复其银行体系。从德国的那些银行算起,欧洲许多银行的过度杠杆化和资本不足问题都已达到了危险的程度,它们在希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄牙的债务上存在风险敞口。想要确保欧元的地位,严格的压力测试加上资本注入是欧元区各成员国政府所能采取的最重要措施。
Since European leaders seem fixated on what to do after Greece's rescue package runs out in 2013 -- often, it appears, to the neglect of more immediate problems -- they should also contemplate transferring responsibility for supervising their banks from the national level to the newly created European Banking Authority. The mistaken belief that a single currency is compatible with separate national bank regulators is, at the most basic level, why Europe is in the fix that it's in.
David Gothard欧洲各国领导人似乎对2013年希腊救助计划到期后该做些什么非常关注(这往往导致他们忽视了更为迫切的问题),但他们也应该仔细考虑让新设立的欧洲银行管理局(European Banking Authority)取代各国监管机构对欧洲各国的银行实施监督。那种认为单一货币体系和各国独立的银行监督管理机构能够兼容的错误理念是欧洲陷入当前困境的最根本原因。
Europe's budget deficits are largely a result of the continent's festering banking crisis. Greece may be an exception, but it's one of a kind. The euro area would clearly benefit from stronger discipline on borrowers and lenders. However, it is fantastical to think that this can be achieved by imposing Germanic debt ceilings Continent-wide.
欧洲预算赤字问题主要是由欧洲大陆日益恶化的银行业危机引发的。希腊也许是一个例外,因为希腊的情况非常特殊。对借贷双方实施更加严格的纪律约束无疑对欧元区有益。但如果认为只要把德国为债务设置上限的做法推广到欧洲各国就可以约束信贷纪律,也未免过于不切实际了。
The only discipline guaranteed to prevent fiscal excesses is market discipline. Reckless borrowers and lenders must be made to pay for their actions. Governments with unsustainable debts should be forced to restructure them, damage to their sovereign creditworthiness or not. The banks that lent to them should similarly suffer consequences, as should the bondholders who provided those banks with funds.
避免财政过度扩张的唯一有效手段是市场约束。不计后果的借贷双方必须为他们的行为付出代价。面临债务不可持续问题的政府必须对债务进行重组,无论这样做是否会令其主权信用受到损害。向政府提供贷款的银行同样要为自己的行为承担后果,向银行提供资金的债券持有人也不例外。
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