A shortage of pigs is set to push China's consumer-price index to a new high, meaning a respite from inflationary pressure may be several months away.

　　中国的消费价格指数(CPI)涨幅很可能因为生猪短缺而走向新高，这意味着通胀压力的缓解可能还要等上好几个月。

　　The official data on inflation in June won't be published until July 15. But the early signs are that it will show the CPI popping above 6% year on year. That is far above the government's target of 4% and earlier forecasts by many investment-bank economists, who started the year predicting a peak of around 5%.

　　官方6月份通胀数据要到7月15日才会发布，但早期迹象表明数据将显示CPI同比增幅突破6%，远远高于政府4%的既定目标，也高于早前很多投行经济学家的预测。年初时他们预计CPI增幅将见顶于5%左右。

　　The proximate cause, once again, is food prices. End-of-June prices for pork, China's favorite meat, are up 67% year on year. Lu Ting, China economist at Bank of America, says pork alone will contribute 1.6 percentage points to June's CPI.

　　直接原因仍是食品价格。作为中国最受欢迎肉类的猪肉，6月底价格较去年同期上涨67%。美国银行(Bank of America)中国经济学家陆挺说，单猪肉一项就将为6月份CPI增幅贡献1.6个百分点。

　　This isn't the first time pork prices have pushed the inflation index to worrying levels. In February 2008, a similar pork shortage sent prices soaring, the main factor behind inflation jumping to 8.7%.

　　这是不是通胀指数第一次因为猪肉价格而升至令人担忧的水平。2008年2月，也是猪肉的短缺导致物价飙升，成为通胀率升至8.7%的主要因素。

　　The government's solution to the 2008 pig crisis -- subsidies that encouraged farmers to ramp up pork production -- has a lot to do with the causes of the current dearth. The surge in production that followed the subsidies in 2008 led to a collapse in pig prices in summer 2009. That in turn caused farmers to slaughter sows and reduce breeding.

　　为解决2008年猪肉危机，政府提供了补贴，鼓励农民增加猪肉生产。这跟当前猪肉短缺的成因存在很大关系。2008年补贴后产量大增，结果使生猪价格在2009年夏季大幅下跌。这又导致农民屠宰母猪、减少饲养量。

　　Pork prices are now at record highs, which should strengthen incentives to increase production. But higher prices for output are only part of the equation for farmers. The price of corn, the major cost in the production of pork, is just as important.

　　猪肉价格目前处在前所未有的高水平，应当会使农民有更大的动力去增加产量。但对于农民来说，出栏价格上涨只是等式的一边，作为猪肉生产主要成本的玉米价格也一样重要。

　　Record corn prices in China, mainly as a result of growing demand for animal feed, have reduced profit for pig farmers. A ratio of 6 to 1 in the price of pork to corn is the minimum for farmers to break even. The number has hovered just above that level for much of the last year, and only moved significantly higher in the last month.

　　主要是因为动物饲料需求增长，中国的玉米价格达到从未有的高水平，这就压缩了猪农的利润。肉价至少要达到玉米价格的六倍，才能够让农民不赔不赚。这个比例仅略高于去年很大一段时间的水平，只是在上个月才明显升高。

　　A fall in international corn prices should help alleviate cost pressures. But even as higher pork and lower corn prices improve incentives for farmers, pigs conceived today won't come to market until the first quarter of 2012. That means China's high inflation could be more persistent than investors expect.

　　如果国际玉米价格下降，那么成本压力应当会在一个方面得到缓和。但是，即便猪肉价格上涨、玉米价格下跌增加农民养猪的动力，今天孕育的小猪也要到2012年第一季度才会抵达市场。这意味着中国的高通胀可能会比投资者预期的更加持久。