Anyone in the U.S corn futures market could be forgiven for feeling seasick after the sharp swings of recent weeks. Don't expect the ride to finish anytime soon.

　　美国玉米期货市场上如有任何人对近几周玉米期货的大幅波动感到头晕目眩，这都是可以理解的。别以为这种波动会很快结束。

　　Weather fears have helped Chicago futures for September delivery rebound from a 10% slide sparked by the Department of Agriculture's strong June estimate of domestic stocks and output.

　　投资者对天气状况的担心促使芝加哥9月份交付的玉米期货摆脱了暴跌10%的阴影，开始反弹。下跌是由美国农业部6月份对国内库存和玉米产量的高预期所引发。

　　Tuesday, the USDA predicted more corn will be used to make ethanol than to feed animals this season for the first time in U.S. history. That is expected to continue, despite the likelihood the government will scrap the 45-cent-a-gallon tax credit for blending ethanol into gasoline.

　　美国农业部周二预测，该季节将有更多玉米用于制造乙醇而不是用作动物饲料，这是美国历史上首次出现这种情况。预计这一现象将持续下去，尽管美国政府可能会取消向企业提供的在汽油中掺入乙醇可获得每加仑45美分的税收抵免政策。

　　The USDA also raised its estimate for ending stocks--the amount left at the marketing year's end--by 150 million bushels to 880 million bushels in 2010-11, and to 870 million bushels by 2011-12, both well below market expectations.

　　此外，美国农业部还将玉米期末库存(销售年度末的剩余库存量)的估算调高了1.5亿蒲式耳，2010/11年度将达到8.8亿蒲式耳，2011/12年度将达到8.7亿蒲式耳，均远低于市场预期。

　　“It is too early to call for an end to the rally in corn, and the recent move by a number of analysts downgrading price forecasts appears premature,” said Barclays Capital analyst Sudakshina Unnikrishnan.

　　巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)分析师Sudakshina Unnikrishnan说，现在认为结束玉米期货价格的回升为时过早，很多分析师近来都调低了价格预期，这似乎是个仓促之举。

　　At Thursday's settlement of $7.164 a bushel, prices are well shy of the record $7.9975 of early June. Analysts point to several elements likely to lift prices.

　　周四的玉米期货结算价为每蒲式耳7.164美元，远未达到6月初创下的7.9975美元的历史纪录。分析师指出了可能会提高玉米期货价格的几个因素。

　　First is the weather. The U.S. crop already has suffered planting delays because of heavy rains in the spring. Now, scorching temperatures across the Plains and western Midwest threaten to hurt yields during the crucial pollination period. Stocks already are at a 15-year low, so any dent in production would ripple through the market.

　　首先是天气状况。今年春天美国普降大雨，造成玉米延迟播种。而在目前十分关键的授粉时期，美国平原地带和中西部地区的偏西地带又艳阳高照，持续高温可能会影响玉米产量。美国玉米库存量目前已处于15年的低位，因此如产量再有任何减少，将对市场产生影响。

　　And markets already are nervous about yields. The USDA kept its yield estimate at 158.7 bushels an acre, the third highest on record. This is likely to be downgraded in August, presenting “a bullish risk for the 2011-12 balance sheet” says Rabobank analyst Erin Fitzpatrick, at the same time as the USDA releases planting figures for the flood-hit states of the Dakotas, Minnesota and Montana, which account for 10% to 15% of the national crop.

　　其次，市场已开始担心玉米产量问题。美国农业部将其产量估测维持在每英亩(约合0.4公顷)158.7蒲式耳，在历史纪录上可谓第三高。荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)分析师菲茨帕特里克(Erin Fitzpatrick)说，这一估测可能会在8月份被调低，代表2011/12销售年度资产负债表可能面临看涨的可能。与此同时，美国农业部发布了受洪灾影响的达科他州、明尼苏达州和蒙大拿州的玉米播种数据，这三个州的玉米产量占美国全国玉米产量的10%至15%。

　　“We expect that this uncertainty will continue to be reflected in elevated price volatility and a higher risk premium that will support prices above our forecast,” said Goldman Sachs Group.

　　高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group)说，我们认为有关玉米产量的不确定将继续通过价格波动幅度加大和风险溢价升高体现出来，这会促使玉米期货价格高过我们的预期。

　　Then there is the speculation about demand from China. The USDA quadrupled its estimate of the Asian nation's imports for the next marketing year to 2 million tons after importers bought 540,000 tons of U.S. corn this month in the largest daily purchase since 1995.

　　再者，还有关于中国需求的猜测。美国农业部已将亚洲国家下一销售年度的玉米进口量预期调高了三倍，至200万吨。亚洲进口国本月已从美国购买了54万吨玉米，创下自1995年以来最大规模的日采购量。

　　News that Beijing intends to restart its 2.5 billion yuan ($386 million) investment program in large pig farms--the major driver of the country's corn consumption--means China's imports could double that. Any decline in prices recently has been met by higher demand. That looks unlikely to change.

　　有消息称北京方面打算投资人民币25亿元(合3.86亿美元)，重启其大型养猪场计划，而养猪场是推动中国玉米消耗的主要动力，这意味着中国的玉米进口量可能要增加一倍。近来，无论价格下跌多少，需求都不断增加，这种局面似乎不太可能改变。

　　Speculative investors have swooped in to buy back into corn's rally. Since Tuesday, funds have increased their length by an estimated 40,000 contracts to around 338,165 contracts. According to research by ANZ Bank, speculative money added 10%, or 60 cents, to prices from June 2010 to May 2011, so more fund interest is likely to drive prices higher for the next few weeks at least.

　　投机性投资者接玉米价格上涨趁机而入。周二以来，基金增加了估计4万份玉米期货合约，使其总合约达到338,165份左右。据澳新银行(ANZ Bank)的研究报告显示，2010年6月至2011年5月，投机性资金使玉米期货价格上涨了10%(约60美分)，所以基金对玉米期货兴趣的提高可能会在至少未来几周推高玉米期货的价格。

　　Still, with millions of extra tons expected to come from Russia, Ukraine, Europe and Argentina in 2011-12, many expect prices to plunge again. “You've got to remember we're at $7 corn,” said a senior trader in London. “Anything that goes against the bullish sentiment could see us fall pretty hard.”

　　尽管如此，由于来自俄罗斯、乌克兰、欧洲和阿根廷的数百万吨玉米预计将在2011/12销售年度上市，因此很多人认为玉米期货价格会再次大跌。伦敦的一位高级交易员说，你别忘了现在的玉米价格是7美元，发生任何不利于看涨情绪的事情，都可能让我们跌得相当惨。