China expects that the US will be able to resolve its debt-ceiling impasse without triggering a default, advisers to the central bank and government say.

　　中国政府及央行的顾问们表示，中国预期美国将能够解决债务上限僵局，不致引发违约。

　　As the biggest foreign creditor to the US, China stands to lose the most from any delayed payment of interest on Treasury debt or from a downgrading of the US sovereign rating that hurts the dollar.

　　如果美国推迟支付国债利息，或美国主权信用评级遭到调降、导致美元走低，中国作为美国的最大外国债权人，将遭受最大的损失。

　　Despite the apparent deadlock in budget negotiations between Democrat and Republican lawmakers before an August 2 deadline, Chinese advisers expressed confidence that a crisis would be averted.

　　尽管美国民主党和共和党议员们在8月2日这一截止日期之前的预算谈判显然僵持不下，但中方的顾问们表示相信，危机将得到避免。

　　“If they don’t raise the debt ceiling, will the American economy be able to go on? The two parties are just playing political games,” Xia Bin, who holds an academic seat on the monetary policy committee of the People’s Bank of China, told the Financial Times. “The chance that they don’t raise the ceiling is very small.”

　　“如果他们不提高债务上限，美国经济还能维持下去吗？两党只是在玩政治游戏，”中国央行货币政策委员会委员夏斌对英国《金融时报》表示。“他们不提高债务上限的几率很小。”

　　Nevertheless, Mr Xia said that China still needed to speed up the diversification of its foreign currency investments away from US assets because the dollar was set to decline in coming decades.

　　但夏斌表示，中国仍需要加速本国外汇投资的多元化，从美元转向其它货币，因为未来几十年里美元势将走低。

　　His view was echoed by Zhang Ming, a researcher in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank in Beijing.

　　夏斌的观点得到中国社科院研究员张明的呼应。社科院是中国的官方智库，位于北京。

　　“Before August 2, there will be quite a satisfactory solution, at least in the short term. The risk is very low of a sudden US debt default,” he said. “So buying US debt is not a short-term risk. It’s more medium term, because of the potential for big dollar depreciation or for US inflation.”

　　“8月2日之前会有一个相当令人满意的解决方案，至少是短期的解决方案。美国突然发生债务违约的风险很小，”他表示。“因此，购买美国债务不是一个短期风险。风险在更大程度上是中期的，因为美元有可能大幅贬值，美国的通胀也可能上扬。”

　　China officially held $1,152bn in US Treasuries at the end of April, about one-quarter of all US government debt in foreign hands, according to US data.

　　根据美国的数据，中国官方在4月底持有1.152万亿美元美国国债，占海外投资者所持美国政府债务总量的大约四分之一。

　　Standard Chartered Bank said last month that there was evidence that China had stepped up the pace of its reserve diversification this year by investing about three-quarters of its new foreign exchange holdings in non-US dollar assets.

　　渣打银行(Standard Chartered Bank)上月表示，有证据表明，今年中国已经加快了外汇储备多元化的进程，将大约四分之三的新增外汇储备投入非美元资产。

　　But no one is talking about China cutting its stockpile of US Treasuries, only adding to it at a slower rate.

　　但是，没有人在说中国要减持其所持的巨额美国国债，中国只是在以较慢的速度增持这种资产。

　　With Chinese foreign exchange reserves increasing by $350bn in the first half alone, Beijing had little choice but to put its misgivings to one side and buy more US Treasuries, the largest and most liquid market for foreign exchange investments, Mr Zhang said. The key for China was to slow its accumulation of currency reserves by, for example, letting the renminbi appreciate more quickly.

　　张明表示，鉴于中国外汇储备仅在今年上半年就增加3500亿美元，北京方面没有什么选择，只能把自己的疑虑放在一边，购买更多的美国国债——对外汇储备投资而言，美国国债市场是规模最大、流动性最好的市场。对中国来说，关键是想办法放慢外汇储备累积的速度，比如说让人民币更快地升值。

　　Chinese officials have so far remained circumspect about the debt negotiations in the US even as Standard & Poor’s followed Moody’s last week in putting the country’s triple-A credit rating on review for possible downgrade.

　　中国官员迄今对美国国内的债务谈判仍态度谨慎，尽管标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)追随穆迪(Moody’s)上周的举动，将美国的AAA信用评级列入负面观察名单。

　　Asked last week about the Moody’s warning, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman gave a one-sentence response, saying he hoped that the US government would adopt responsible policies and protect the interests of investors.

　　上周，在被问及穆迪有关美国评级的警告时，中国外交部发言人给出了一句话的简短答复，表示他希望美国政府采取负责任的政策，保护投资者利益。