China's debt-burdened Railways Ministry, under fire after last month's deadly train crash, might need a central government bailout and will have difficulty raising new funds, some analysts predict, adding to concerns around the country's high-speed rail system.

　　中国铁道部负债累累，在上个月造成人员伤亡的撞车事件后备受指责。一些分析人士预测，铁道部或许需要中央政府的援助，在筹集新资金方面也将面临一定的困难，这让有关中国高速铁路系统的担忧进一步加剧。

　　Construction of the fast-train network was a linchpin of China's economic stimulus plan to counter the global financial crisis. Led by lending from commercial banks, the Railways Ministry's debt burden increased to hundreds of billions of dollars, largely used for accelerating the construction of the high-speed network, which Beijing heralded as world class.

　　European Pressphoto Agency周四，一列高速列车驶入北京南站。建设高速铁路网是中国为应对世界金融危机推出的经济刺激计划的关键组成部分。商业银行贷款是铁道部的主要债务负担，这笔债务已增至数千亿美元，基本上被用作加快高速铁路网的建设。中国政府号称这是世界的高速铁路网络。

　　The railways' debt woes are part of the larger stimulus tab now starting to weigh on China's government and could also call into question the economics -- and not just the safety standards -- of an industry China had hoped would become a significant global export.

　　铁道部的债务问题是更大规模刺激计划的一部分，这个计划不仅开始让中国政府焦虑不安，也可能让人们质疑铁路工业的经济意义，而不仅仅是质疑其安全标准。中国本希望高速铁路能成为重要的全球出口业务。

　　The July 23 collision between two high-speed trains, which killed 40 people and injured 191, has unleashed widespread public anger that analysts say has likely weakened the clout of the formerly powerful Railways Ministry -- the only Chinese government agency other than the Finance Ministry allowed to issue bonds -- both within the government and with investors. That in turn is fueling doubts about its ability to raise more funds needed to cover its existing debts and keep building the prized high-speed network and is prompting some to call for the ministry's restructuring or abolition.

　　今年7月23日，造成40人死亡、191人受伤的动车相撞事故激起了普遍民愤。有分析人士说，这种民愤可能削弱了原本势力强大的铁道部在中国政府内部以及对投资者的影响力。铁道部是中国除财政部外唯一一个获准发行债券的政府机构。其影响力削弱也让外界愈发质疑铁道部是否有能力筹措更多资金，以偿还现有债务，继续修建其引以为豪的高速铁路网。有人甚至要求重组或取消铁道部。

　　“Given the way the accident has drawn attention to the [Railways Ministry's] management practices, it may well be awhile before the [ministry] can come back to the debt markets,” Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green said in a research report. “There will be financing difficulties and, inevitably, increased pressure on interest payments.”

　　相关阅读渣打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)在一份研究报告中说，鉴于动车事故引发人们对铁道部管理方式的关注，可能要过很长一段时间铁道部才能重新回到债市，铁道部将出现财务困境，其偿还利息的压力必然会增大。

　　Mr. Green said he doubts the rail ministry's operations generate enough free cash flow to cover the interest payments on its debts. He and other analysts said that the Ministry of Finance likely will have to step in at some point with a capital injection.

　　王志浩说，他怀疑铁道部的业务是否能产生足够多的自由现金流，以偿还其借款利息。王志浩和其他分析师说，财政部可能会在特定情况下通过注资来插手干预。

　　China's Railways Ministry didn't respond to requests to comment.

　　中国铁道部没有回应置评要求。

　　For the central government, the ministry woes add to concerns around debt from the stimulus plan. Special borrowing entities created by local governments have also racked up enormous debts -- about $1.65 trillion, or 27% of China's gross domestic product last year, according to a June estimate by the National Audit Office. Private-sector estimates have put the total higher.

　　对于中央政府来说，铁道部的麻烦加剧了对经济刺激计划产生的债务的担忧。地方政府成立的专门借款实体也累积了巨额债务。据中国国家审计署6月份的估计，这笔债务总计约1.65万亿美元，相当于中国去年GDP的27%。私营部门估计这一数字更大。

　　While few question the government's ultimate ability to cover such debts, analysts warn that the burden could suck funds away from other fiscal priorities and could saddle China's state-run banks with bad loans.

　　尽管很少有人质疑政府最终偿还此类债务的能力，但分析师警告说，债务负担可能会吸走用于其他优先财政项目的资金，并可能会令中国的国有银行承受不良贷款的压力。

　　Zhao Jian, professor of economics at Beijing Jiaotong University, said that ultimately the Ministry of Railways needs to be restructured, splitting the commercial elements of the rail network from the government's control.

　　北京交通大学经济学教授赵坚说，最终铁道部需要进行重组，将铁路网的商业部分从政府控制中分出去。

　　'Currently people are paying the most attention to the crash and safety side of the issue, but this will lead them to scrutinize more Ministry of Railways' debt and finance issues,' said Mr. Zhao. 赵坚说，现在人们最关注的是动车事故以及安全方面的问题，但这会让他们对铁道部的债务和财务问题进行更多审视。

　　Even before the crash, the high-speed network was under fire over corruption and expensive tickets that put the high-speed trains out of reach for ordinary Chinese.

　　早在事故发生前，高速铁路网络就已经因腐败和高票价遭到猛烈批评。昂贵的票价令普通中国人对高速列车可望不可及。

　　“Building high-speed rail cannot generate enough cash flow. Cash flow comes from the number of passengers,” said Mr. Zhao. “They should have built ordinary trains, but instead they built high-speed ones, which doesn't correspond to market demand.”

　　赵坚说，建设高速铁路无法产生足够的现金流；现金流来自旅客人数；本应制造普通列车的，但他们却制造了高速列车，这不符合市场需求。

　　The Railways Ministry's debts have ballooned in recent years. At the end of the first quarter its obligations totaled 1.98 trillion yuan ($307 billion), about 5% of China's gross domestic product, up from about 2% in 2007.

　　铁道部的债务在近几年迅速膨胀。截至今年第一季度末，铁道部债务总额达到人民币1.98万亿元（合3,070亿美元），约相当于中国国内生产总值（GDP）的5%，高于2007年的约2%。

　　In a prospectus issued July 14 for a planned bond issue, the Railways Ministry disclosed that its operating costs in the first quarter exceeded its operating revenue by 3.8 billion yuan, raising the prospect it may struggle to find enough cash to cover interest payments, particularly if its debt burden expands further.

　　在7月14日发布的债券发行计划章程中，铁道部披露第一季度的经营成本高出营业收入38亿元，人们因此预计铁道部可能会很难找到足够的现金来支付利息，若其债务负担进一步加剧，难度可能会更大。

　　“There is no evidence that operating revenues can grow significantly faster than operating costs,” said Mr. Green. “Indeed the evidence at present suggests the opposite may be true.”

　　王志浩说，没有证据显示营业收入的增长会比经营成本快得多；事实上目前的证据表明可能会出现相反的情况。

　　The bond sale, which occurred two days before the July 23 accident, failed to find enough buyers for the full 20 billion yuan issue.

　　债券是在7月23日事故发生前两天开始发行的，总额人民币200亿元的债券未能找到足够多的买家。

　　As a sovereign issuer backed by the financial resources of the Chinese government, there is no concern it will default on its bonds. However, sentiment is clearly moving against the ministry as a debt issuer.

　　作为一个由中国政府财政资源支持的主权发行机构，不必担心铁道部会违约。但普遍的情绪明显是不看好身为发债人的铁道部。

　　A Shanghai-based analyst with a brokerage firm who deals with the Railways Ministry said he originally expected it to issue between 140 billion yuan and 160 billion yuan of bonds over the rest of this year -- more than doubling the 2010 figure. He now expects the amount to be scaled back given indications demand is fading for the debt. The ministry has already issued 105 billion yuan of new bonds this year, up from 115.5 billion yuan for the whole of last year.

　　供职于上海一家与铁道部有往来的经纪公司的一位分析师说，他起初预计铁道部从现在起到年底会发行人民币1,400亿到1,600亿元的债券，比2010年同期增加一倍以上。现在由于债务需求出现了逐步降低的迹象，他预计发行量会减少。铁道部今年已经新发行了1,050亿元的债券，去年全年为1,155亿元。