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After China’s invective on US debt at the weekend, it is easy to forget that Beijing deserves part of the blame for Washington’s fiscal mess, writes Simon Rabinovitch.
上周末,中国对美国债务问题进行了猛烈抨击,这很容易让人们忘记,中国政府在一定程度上也要对目前华盛顿的财政混乱负责。
It is hard to argue with China’s view that the US has been living beyond its means. But the addict wouldn’t have been so hooked without a generous dealer. China has been the main supplier of the cheap debt that the US has found to be such an irresistible drug.
中国指责美国没有“量入为出”的观点很难反驳。但若没有慷慨的毒贩,瘾君子本不至于如此上瘾。中国一直是廉价债务的主要供应者,美国无法抗拒这种“毒品”的诱惑。
The problem is not just that China is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries with more than $1,100bn. More worrying is the rate of increase of China’s holdings, from less than $100bn a decade ago to the pile it has today.
问题不仅仅在于中国是美国国债的最大外国持有者,总共持有逾1.1万亿美元。更令人心忧的是中国持有量的增长速度:从10年前不到1000亿美元到现在这个庞大数目。
That has made China the most important buyer of US debt over the past decade. It was knocked off its throne only briefly when the Fed stepped in to buy government bonds with its quantitative easing.
中国也由此成为过去10年里美国国债最重要的买家。只有当美联储(Fed)在定量宽松期间插手购买国债时,这一桂冠才短暂地旁落。
China’s largesse did not cause the global financial crisis. It did not cause US regulators to overlook subprime dangers. But it acted as a facilitator, enabling the US to enjoy ultra-low rates for a prolonged period that encouraged crazy risk-taking.
中国的慷慨并不是造成全球金融危机的原因,也不是美国监管部门忽视次贷风险的原因。但中国的所作所为的确起到了推手的作用,使美国能够长期享受超低利率,由此助长了狂热的冒险行为。
Xinhua began its commentary on Saturday thus: “The days when debt-ridden Uncle Sam could leisurely squander unlimited overseas borrowing appear to be numbered.”
新华社在周六一篇评论文章中开篇说道:“债台高筑的山姆大叔能够从容挥霍无止境海外借款的日子似乎不多了。”
Apart from the fact that such snarkiness hardly befits the official news agency of the second-largest economy, Xinhua was hypocritical in raising?the issue of “unlimited overseas borrowing” without questioning China’s hand in the vicious debt cycle.
且不论这样尖刻的指责并不符合全球第二大经济体官方通讯社的身份,新华社提出了“无止境海外借款”这个问题,却绝口不问中国在这一恶性债务循环中所扮演的角色,这种态度十分伪善。
China’s bottomless appetite for US debt is a direct result of its own distorted currency regime, whereby it buys much of the foreign exchange streaming into the country in order to hold down the value of the renminbi, and in turn invests that foreign cash in US government bonds.
中国对于美国债务无止境的欲望,是其扭曲的汇率制度的直接结果——中国凭借其扭曲的汇率制度,大举购入流入本国的外汇,以此压低人民币汇率,接着再用外汇投资美国国债。
This point has been made many times, but it bears repeating that a more market-driven renminbi would have produced a different outcome. China’s forex reserves would certainly have grown more slowly, and it is conceivable that the US trade deficit would have been smaller. The world economy would still have had problems, but it would have been on a somewhat more stable footing.
这一观点已经被提到过多次,但值得再一次重复:如果人民币更加以市场为导向,本可以产生不同的结果。中国外汇储备的增长必然会慢一些,可想而知,美国的贸易逆差也会小一些。这样,即便世界经济仍然会存在问题,但立足点会更稳定一些。
Something constructive to come out of the US rating downgrade could be a stronger conviction in China that faster exchange rate reform is needed.
如果说此次美国信用降级带来了一些建设性意义,那会是中国将更加坚定地相信,有必要加快汇率改革的步伐。
Xia Bin, an academic adviser to the Chinese central bank, said as much on his microblog, arguing that Beijing had no choice but to internationalise its currency.
中国央行的学术顾问夏斌在他的微博上表达了同样的观点。他表示,中国“必须追求人民币国际化,这是必然的选择,也是无奈的选择”。
The central bank got off to a promising start on Monday, raising its daily fixing for the renminbi by the most in nearly a year and letting its exchange rate climb to a record against the dollar.
周一中国央行实现了一个充满希望的开端,大幅上调人民币中间价,涨幅为近一年来的最高水平,并允许人民币兑美元汇率创下新高。
Is the biggest debt dealer finally cleaning up its act?
难道说,最大的债务“贩子”终于开始要改头换面了?
下一篇:中国保障房建设的裂缝(双语)
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