Demand for copper is surging in China. How that fact might affect prices of the metal is another story.

　　中国对铜的需求大量增加，但这一事实可能会如何影响铜价就是另外一回事了。

　　The metal, dubbed “Dr. Copper” for the apparent ability of its price to forecast global industrial activity, has gone on a volatile ride over the past year -- not surprising amid will-they-won't-they budgeting in Washington, default fears in Europe and Middle Eastern turmoil.

　　Bloomberg News过去一年，铜价大幅波动。由于美国政府是否会提高预算上限还是未知数，加之欧洲债务违约的担忧和中东地区的动荡，铜价大幅波动不足为奇。铜常被称作“铜博士”，因为铜价明显具有预测全球工业生产活动的能力。

　　China is the biggest buyer of copper, but looking at the country's sustained high level of economic growth isn't making it any easier to predict what will happen with the metal.

　　中国是铜的最大买家，但观察中国持续高速增长的经济并不会令预测铜价的走势变得更加容易。

　　What's next was the big question last week in Shanghai, where the specialist publisher Metal Bulletin gathered delegates to ponder, not whether China matters, but how.

　　上周在上海，大家关注的焦点是铜价的下一步走势。专业出版商英国《金属导报》（Metal Bulletin）在上海召集与会代表，探讨中国对铜的需求将如何影响铜价的下一步走势，而非中国需求是否会影响铜价。

　　Copper is hovering just above $8,700 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, and China will have a lot to do with whether it surges another 15% toward $10,000 as some producers hope, or plunges by $6,000-plus as one provocateur told the assembly.

　　伦敦金属交易所（London Metal Exchange）的铜价在每吨8,700美元上方徘徊，而铜价能否再涨15%朝每吨1万美元的价格进发（这正是一些生产商所希望的），还是会跌去6,000多美元（这是一位耸人听闻者在大会上说的），则和中国有很大关系。

　　'Global demand is strong and it will be driven by Asia, notably China,' declared Kim Priestly, the Utah-based chief financial officer of copper for giant miner Rio Tinto Plc.

　　矿业巨头力拓股份有限公司（Rio Tinto Plc）驻美国犹他州负责铜业务的首席财务长普里斯特利（Kim Priestly）说，全球对铜的需求强劲，这一需求将受亚洲的推动，其中最主要的就是中国。

　　Ms. Priestly told attendees at the conference that China can satisfy only 40% of copper needed to power its smelters today and that Rio Tinto sees that figure sliding toward 30% in coming years. A 2.5 million metric ton shortfall annually around 2020 will require even more imports, she said.

　　普里斯特利在本次大会上告诉与会者，目前中国冶金用铜的自给度只有40%，力拓预计未来几年这一数字会下滑到30%。普里斯特利说，大约到2020年中国每年的铜需求缺口可达250万吨，中国因此需要进口更多的铜。

　　Perhaps predictably, Rio Tinto has China's answer: 80 kilometers across the border in Mongolia, a massive project called Oyu Tolgoi that is forecast to begin commercial production in the first half of 2013. Lest analysts take away a view from Ms. Priestly that the mine, owned by Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. and operated by Rio Tinto, will collapse prices two-years' hence, she cautioned production will ramp up only over time. She also acknowledged so far there are no firm plans as to where the Gobi Desert mine itself will get electricity or how the copper might be transported out. She said Rio Tinto is “very bullish” on copper.

　　或许可以预见的是，中国该从哪里进口铜，力拓已经有了答案：距中蒙边境80公里有一个名叫奥尤陶勒盖（Oyu Tolgoi）的铜金矿大型项目，该项目预计能在2013年上半年开始商业生产。奥尤陶勒盖铜金矿由加拿大艾芬豪矿业有限公司（Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.）所有，力拓负责运营。由于担心分析师从自己的讲话中得出该铜金矿的开发在未来两年会拉低铜价的结论，普里斯特利告诫说这个铜金矿的产出只会逐渐增加。她同时承认，到目前为止关于奥尤陶勒盖项目将从何处获得电力供应，以及产出的铜将如何运出都还没有具体的计划。不过她说力拓非常看好铜的前景。

　　Other miners are keen to supply China too, including Beijing-based China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co., which fancies itself the Chinese Rio Tinto. But don't expect Minmetals to make aggressive investments in the world's copper mines.

　　其它矿业企业也都渴望满足中国的需求，其中包括位于北京的中国五矿有色金属股份有限公司（China Minmetals Non-Ferrous Metals Co.，简称：五矿有色）。五矿有色将自己比作中国的力拓。但不要指望五矿有色会大举投资全球铜矿。

　　“We don't consider ourselves an experienced company in overseas investment,” said Jin Xiaoguang, the company's deputy general manager. He spent much of a presentation discussing the “surprises” the company has faced pursuing projects outside China, such as land purchase challenges in Africa and knotty water rights in South America.

　　五矿有色副总经理金霄光说，我不认为我们公司在海外投资上很有经验。金霄光的发言大部分在谈五矿有色在国外收购项目时碰到的各种“意外”，比如在非洲买地遇到的挑战，以及在南美洲碰上的棘手的水权问题。

　　“China is short of copper,” said Yang Yinghuai, general manager of metals at Cofco Futures Ltd., one of China's top trading houses. “In the next three to five years this situation cannot be changed.”

　　中粮期货经纪有限公司（Cofco Futures Ltd.）金属交易负责人杨应淮（音）说，中国缺铜，未来三到五年这一状况不会改变。

　　Cofco's view, she said, is copper could soon hit $8,800 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange, but then slip toward $6,500 perton toward the end of this year, where Chinese buyers will be waiting to bid it higher.

　　杨应淮说，中粮期货的观点是，伦敦金属交易所的铜价可能很快会冲击每吨8,800美元的价位。但此后随着年底的临近，价格会逐步下滑到每吨6,500美元。中国买家将守候在这一价位买入，然后价格会再次逐步上涨。

　　But actually how much demand does China have?

　　但实际上中国到底有多少需求呢？

　　Bo Zhao, deputy director for copper at China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association, said that according to official numbers China's consumption of copper edged up to 7.513 million metric tons in 2010, a rise of 4.1% from the previous year and 3.8-times the tonnage of 2000.

　　中国有色金属工业协会铜部副主任赵波说，根据官方数据，中国2010年铜的消耗量高达751.3万吨，较上年增长4.1%，是2000年的3.8倍。

　　Yet, he cautioned that actual Chinese demand in 2010 was only 6.3 million tons. Much of the rest, he said, went into building up inventories.

　　不过他提醒说中国2010年实际的铜需求量只有630万吨。他说其他大部分都用在了增加库存上。

　　There are multiple ways of gauging Chinese demand. “A large part of the apparent consumption was for export,” said Chen Hongzhou, director of Chinalco Luoyang Copper Co.

　　衡量中国的需求有多种方法。中铝洛阳铜业有限公司董事陈宏州（音）说，表面上的消耗量大部分都用在了出口上。

　　China will make 150 million air conditioners this year, Mr. Chen said, predicting quite a few of the machines will be exported. With global economic headwinds bearing down, Mr. Chen wondered how long some of China's factory owners can stay in business, describing many companies as cash-strapped from price wars and uncollectable debts, often with high production but truly earning “zero dollars.”

　　陈宏州说，中国今年将生产1.5亿台空调，他预计其中相当一部分会用于出口。在全球经济逆风逼近的情况下，陈宏州怀疑中国有些厂家还能维持多久，他说许多公司由于价格战和坏账陷入资金短缺，产量往往很高但实际却一分都赚不到。

　　Speaking on the sidelines, one conference attendee, representing a Ningbo-based trading firm, said she will import as much copper as she can get.

　　宁波一家交易公司的与会代表在会议间隙说，她会进口尽量多的铜。

　　As others at the conference wrung their hands over what predictions of copper-free refrigerators and electrical line might mean for copper prices, the young woman said she focuses on banks, not factories. Her concern is how much longer she will be able to borrow U.S. dollars in Hong Kong at the rock bottom annual interest rate of 0.2% and how quickly the Chinese yuan will gain against the American currency. That's because her trade is to borrow dollars in Hong Kong, buy copper on international markets, ship it to bonded warehouses in Shanghai and then sell it as far in the future as possible to buyers in China who pay in yuan. Sometimes she uses the same loan to make the play three times.

　　当无铜冰箱和电线的预测可能对铜价带来的影响让其他与会者忧心忡忡时，这位年轻的代表说她关注的是银行而不是工厂。她担心的问题是，以0.2%的最低年利率在香港贷款美元还能持续多久，以及人民币对美元升值的速度会有多快。这是因为她的交易流程是，在香港贷款美元，在国际市场上买铜，将铜运往上海的保税仓库，然后将其以尽可能长的期货合约期限卖给支付人民币的中国买家。有时她会用同一笔贷款以这种形式操作三次。

　　One of the event's featured speakers, Simon Hunt, detonated the copper conference equivalent of a stink bomb with a prediction the metal is headed toward $2,000 per ton, about a fifth where it is priced today. Speaking quickly in a powerful voice, the principal of Simon Hunt Strategic Services, weaved a story of woeful global economic decline, 'funny money' from the U.S. Federal Reserve in the form of easy credit, likely recession in Germany and soaring use of recycled copper.

　　活动特约演讲人之一、铜业咨询公司Simon Hunt Strategic Services负责人亨特（Simon Hunt）在这次会议上引爆了一颗“臭炸弹”，他预测铜价走势是滑向每吨2,000美元，约为目前价格的五分之一。他以较快的语速和有力的声音叙述了目前的形势：形势不佳的全球经济下滑、美联储（U.S. Federal Reserve）以宽松信贷形式滥发的货币、德国可能会发生衰退以及回收铜的使用会激增。

　　But his bedrock -- counterintuitive -- reason copper is overvalued: China's blistering demand.

　　但他认为铜被高估的基本原因是：中国需求的增长。这未免有悖于直觉。

　　Mr. Hunt estimates that investors have squirreled away a whopping 4 million tons of copper, a figure that compares with around 18 million tons of annual global consumption. He said 2.5 million tons of that is in Chinese warehouses off the industry radar, and he figures 65% of the country's copper imports related to financial plays, not end-user demand. The risk is massive copper selling, which he predicts will take place when U.S. interest rates head higher.

　　亨特估计投资者囤积了多达400万吨的铜，而全球年消耗量约为1,800万吨。他说，其中250万吨的铜都在中国仓库里未被纳入行业数据，他认为中国65%的铜进口都与金融操作有关。风险在于大规模抛售铜，他预测当美国利率升高时就会出现这种情况。

　　His detractors grumbled that Mr. Hunt is a perennial bear, purposely vague about his data sources and keen to stir up business on his own after sale of the respected firm that carries his name, Brook Hunt. But he was the most talked-about feature of the conference.

　　亨特的批评者抱怨说他是个顽固的做空者，他故意对自己的数据来源含糊其辞，急于在带有自己名字的知名金属咨询公司Brook Hunt出售后为自己招揽业务。但他是这次大会最受热议的嘉宾。

　　Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Hunt explained how he can know how much copper sits in warehouses no one is counting: trade in the metal compared with smelter consumption of copper. “I'm confident about my numbers of what copper went into furnaces,” he said.

　　在接受《华尔街日报》采访时，亨特解释了在没有人统计的情况下自己是如何知道铜的仓储量的：将铜的交易量与冶炼量作对比。他说，对于有多少铜进了熔炉，我很有把握。

　　“The copper market is not being driven by the copper industry but the behavior of financial market players,” Mr. Hunt said.

　　亨特说，铜市场并不是受铜行业的驱动，而是受金融市场操作行为的驱动。