A hedge fund designed to profit from a slowdown in the Chinese economy, run by the London hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry, has soared in value over the past two months as global markets have plummeted and industry peers have suffered damaging losses.

　　在全球市场暴跌、业内同行遭受巨额亏损之际，伦敦对冲基金经理休?亨德利(Hugh Hendry)管理的一只旨在从中国经济放缓中获利的对冲基金的价值在过去两个月里大幅飙升。

　　Mr Hendry – a former Odey Asset Management trader – is one of only a handful of hedge fund managers positioned against Chinese growth and therefore pitted against heavyweight investors such as Anthony Bolton.

　　曾任Odey Asset Management交易员的亨德利，是少数几个做空中国经济增长、从而与安东尼?波顿(Anthony Bolton)等重量级投资者唱对台戏的对冲基金经理之一。

　　Mr Hendry’s Eclectica Credit Fund is constructed from a portfolio of short positions against highly cyclical Japanese corporate credits that have high exposure to Chinese demand.

　　亨德利的Eclectica Credit Fund建立了一系列空头头寸，做空高度依赖中国需求、周期性很强的日本企业信贷。

　　The fund, which raised a modest $150m from a handful of London investors when it launched late last year, is up 38.65 percent so far this year, having returned 22.5 percent in August – the hedge fund industry’s worst month since the collapse of Lehman Brothers three years ago.

　　去年底成立时，Eclectica基金从伦敦几名投资者手中筹资1.5亿美元。今年迄今，该基金净值累计上涨了38.65%，8月份的回报率达到22.5%，而该月是自三年前雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产以来对冲基金业表现最差的一个月。

　　The news comes as concerns of a Chinese slowdown gather speed. Wu Xiaoling, the former deputy central bank governor and vice director of the finance and economy committee of the National People’s Congress, said the economy would cool next year and efforts to spur growth will be constrained by inflation, in an article published on Monday by the Chinese central bank’s official newspaper.

　　上述消息传出之际，外界对中国经济放缓的担忧日益升温。原中国央行副行长、现担任全国人大财经委副主任的吴晓灵在周一发表于央行官方报纸《金融时报》(Financial News)上的一篇文章中表示：2012年中国经济增速放缓将成为大概率事件；当前中国经济正面临通货膨胀和财政债务的压力，这意味着政策方面不能再走信贷和财政双扩张的道路。

　　Mr Hendry’s fund is up a further 11 percent for September, according to an investor. Mr Hendry declined to comment.

　　据一位投资者表示，亨德利基金的净值在9月份又上涨了11%。亨德利拒绝置评。

　　In comparison, the average hedge fund has lost money this year, data from Hedge Fund Research show. The HFRI composite index, which tracks performance numbers from across the industry, is down 1.47 percent since January.

　　相比之下，来自对冲基金研究(Hedge Fund Research)的数据显示，平均而言，对冲基金今年处在亏损状态。追踪整个对冲基金业业绩数据的HFRI综合指数自今年1月以来下跌了1.47%。

　　Mr Hendry, a noted contrarian, began raising concerns about a Chinese slowdown in 2009 – even uploading a homemade video on to the popular video sharing site YouTube based on a visit to deserted Chinese real estate developments.

　　作为一位著名的反向投资者，亨德利在2009年开始表示出对中国经济放缓的关切——他甚至跑到中国拍摄空荡荡的楼盘，并将自制的视频上传至广受欢迎的视频共享网站YouTube。

　　His flagship Eclectica fund has had a short position against Japanese corporate credit for some time, but the strategy was only broken out as a separate specialist fund 12 months ago.

　　亨德利招牌性的Eclectica基金建立针对日本企业信贷的空头头寸已有相当一段时间，但只是在12个月前，这种做空策略才演变为一只独立的专业基金。

　　Japan was the most industrially exposed economy to China, Mr Hendry told the Financial Times then. The “slightest sneeze” in south-east Asia “will give me so much... bang for my buck,” he said.

　　亨德利当时向英国《金融时报》表示，日本是工业上最依赖中国的经济体。他说，东南亚“稍微打个小喷嚏，我就能大发横财”。

　　The fund bought up cheap credit protection on companies such as Nippon Steel or JFE Holdings for as little as 50 basis points annually, expecting spreads between to widen following an export-led slowdown.

　　这只基金以低至每年50个基点的价格，购买了针对新日铁(Nippon Steel)或日本川铁(JFE)等公司的廉价信用保险(credit protection)，寄望于在出口拉动型经济增长放缓之后价差会扩大。

　　Japanese companies were highly exposed to China but such risks were currently underpriced, he said. The cost of CDS protection on US Steel, for example, was at the time about 500 basis points annually.

　　亨德利当时表示，日本公司对中国的风险敞口非常大，但此类风险眼下被低估了。例如，当时美国钢铁公司(US Steel)信用违约互换(CDS)的成本是每年约500个基点。

　　Very few hedge fund managers share Mr Hendry’s pessimism. Only James Chanos – the noted short seller who correctly highlighted corruption at Enron – has also launched a dedicated ‘short China’ fund, which bets against the Chinese property market through Hong Kong-listed entities.

　　很少有对冲基金经理认同亨德利的悲观观点。唯有知名空头投资者、曾对安然(Enron)腐败行为予以恰当关注的詹姆斯?查诺斯(James Chanos)也创立了一只专门“做空中国”的基金，该基金通过在香港上市的实体押注中国房地产市场崩盘。

　　China bulls have had a rough ride so far this year, however. Mr Bolton, one of the most notable, raised $743m for his Fidelity China fund in 2010, but was forced to admit in June that returns for his fund had been “disappointing”.

　　然而，今年迄今，做多中国的投资者日子并不好过。作为其中名气最大的人物之一，波顿在2010年为自己管理的富达中国基金(Fidelity China Fund)筹集了7.43亿美元，但他被迫在今年6月承认，该基金的回报率一直“令人失望”。