Chinese stocks are pushing record lows. The Hang Seng China Enterprises index could be bought for 1.33 times book value on Friday. The last time the finest red-chips were trading that cheaply, almost exactly three years ago, policymakers swung into action with interest rate cuts, a bank-loan binge and Rmb4,000bn of fiscal stimulus. This time, the prospect of a similar package looks remote indeed.

　　中国股市正逼近历史低点。上周五，恒生中国企业指数(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)的市净率为1.33倍。上一次这些最优质的红筹股价格如此便宜，是差不多正好三年前，当时政策制定者迅速采取了一系列措施，包括降息、开启银行贷款闸门和推出4万亿元人民币的财政刺激计划。而这一次，出台类似方案的可能性十分渺茫。

　　While a cut in the reserve requirement ratio, now at an all-time high of 21.5 per cent, could ease the flow of credit to small and medium-sized enterprises, which account for four-fifths of China’s job creation, the People’s Bank will be disinclined to risk it. In August, consumer price inflation fell a little, to 6.2 per cent. But it remains too high to signal a change in policy direction, while in October 2008 CPI was rapidly tumbling toward zero.

　　目前，中国的存款准备金率处于21.5%的历史高位，虽然降低这一比率可以促使信贷流向为中国创造五分之四就业的中小企业，但中国央行(People's Bank of China)将不愿意冒险采取这种做法。8月，消费价格指数(CPI)略微回落至6.2%，但仍然过高，表明政策方向还不能变。而在2008年10月时，CPI正向零快速滑落。

　　Further, bank lending officers will not be allowed off the leash so soon after the excesses of 2009/2010, when M2 money supply growth averaged almost double the current rate of 13.5 per cent, a seven-year low. Fears of rising non-performing loanshave already savaged bank valuations.

　　此外，在2009-2010年的过度放贷之后，银行的信贷人员短期内将不会被允许放松贷款。在2009-2010年间，M2货币供给量的平均增长率几乎是现在的两倍。现在13.5%的增长率是七年来的最低水平。对不良贷款增加的担忧，已经影响了银行股的估值。

　　Fiscally, China seems in fair shape. The central budget is in surplus, and total government debt – including local government debt, and the stock of historical NPLs now housed in asset management agencies – is about half of gross domestic product. But since 2008 many of China’s provinces have been running fiscal deficits as large as or larger than Greece or Portugal, as they funded projects of questionable benefits. While the full extent of claims on its revenues through internal transfers remains uncertain, the ministry of finance will not enthusiastically embrace a fresh round of stimulus.

　　中国的财政状况看上去相当不错。中央预算仍为盈余，总体政府债务，包括地方政府债务和由资产管理公司持有的存量历史不良贷款，大约为GDP的50%。但自2008年以来，中国许多省份的政府由于为收益可疑的项目提供资金，财政赤字已经等同、或超过希腊或葡萄牙的水平。在最终将通过内部转移支付多少开支还不确定的情况下，财政部将不会积极支持新一轮刺激计划。

　　Investors should not prepare for a world without a Chinese growth engine. But they should accept that Beijing cannot crank it much harder.

　　投资者尚不必去面对一个没有中国作为增长引擎的世界。但他们应该接受一个事实：中国政府不可能再下大力气为它增添火力。