The revelation there are large stocks of copper in China isn’t new, but the bigger question is口why now?

　　对于中国有大量铜库存的披露已不是什么新闻，但更大的疑惑是：为什么赶在现在披露呢？

　　Industry participants attending the International Study Group meeting in Lisbon recently said Dr. Bo Zhao, deputy director Copper Department, China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, told delegates that China’s copper inventories were 1.9 million metric tons at the end of last year.

　　出席了前不久在葡萄牙里斯本召开的国际铜业研究组织大会的业内人士说，中国有色金属工业协会铜部副主任赵波博士告诉与会人员，中国去年年底的铜库存为190万吨。

　　While this may sound significant given that analysts have long proclaimed the market to be in a supply-demand deficit, his comments are in line with estimates by traders, merchants and banks active in China’s copper sector, who say the country is awash with the metal.

　　考虑到分析人士长期以来一直声称铜市处于供需不足的状态，190万吨的铜库存听起来好像是个很大的数字，不过赵波的这番言论与那些活跃在中国铜业、说中国有大量铜库存的交易员、商家及银行的估计是一致的。

　　Even more recently, subsidiaries of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc. both separately estimated in filings made to the U.S. regulator for proposed exchange-traded funds that the physical copper market is at least 2.5 million tons, including inventories of end users and other market participants such as producers, traders and transit stocks. That doesn’t include exchange stocks, which are over 500,000 tons.

　　就在最近，摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.)和贝莱德(BlackRock Inc.)旗下子公司在提交给美国监管机构的交易所买卖基金申报文件中不约而同地估测，实物铜的市场规模至少在250万吨，其中包括终端用户以及生产商、交易者和在途库存等市场参与者的库存量。这还并不包括交易所超过50万吨的铜库存。

　　So what is actually far more interesting is the timing of Dr. Bo’s comments.

　　因此，更耐人寻味的实际上是赵波做出上述评论的时间。

　　China has for decades classified the amount of metal it holds in stockpiles as a strategic state secret. Copper is critical for China because the country is the world’s largest consumer of the metal and uses it in housing, construction and infrastructure to power its exponential growth. It doesn’t have decent mine supplies of its own, so has imported vast tonnages through the years, driving copper prices and keeping market bulls happy.

　　几十年来，中国一直把铜的库存量归为战略性国家机密。铜对中国来说至关重要，因为中国是世界上最大的铜消费国，其住房、建设和基础设施等领域都要用到铜，并以此推动本国经济飞速增长。中国本身并没有大规模的铜供应，所以多年来一直从海外大量进口，这不仅推高了铜价，也让看好铜市的人甚为欢喜。

　　That story is coming to an end as China’s growth engine has started to slowly but steadily creak, with the free and easy money that helped imports to continue having long dried-up. It’s been some time since copper producers could point to Chinese imports for evidence that the country was the savior of the market, riding to its rescue with still strong demand despite a global downturn.

　　然而随着中国增长引擎开始稳步减速，关于铜的神话也即将终结，曾帮助中国继续进口铜的无偿或低息贷款在很久以前就已用尽。铜生产商曾经以中国铜进口作为中国是铜市救世主的证据，认为尽管世界经济衰退，中国的铜需求却仍然强劲，可惜这一切已是昨日黄花。

　　Copper prices have shaved more than 30% since peaking at an all-time high in February of $10,190/ton, partly as the world’s economies teeter on the verge of another downturn and partly because China hasn’t been buying.

　　铜价自今年2月创下每吨10,190美元的历史最高水平以来，已累计下挫逾30%。从一定程度上说，这既是因为世界各国再次徘徊在衰退边缘，同时也是因为这短时间里缺少了中国对铜的采购。

　　In fact, the comments from China in recent weeks have been overwhelmingly bearish.

　　实际上，近几周来自中国的言论一直极度悲观。

　　The Bank of China warned this week that the global economy is on the verge of a double-dip recession and cautioned of a slowdown in their country's own growth as a result. Comments by one of the nation's four state-run commercial banks aren't taken lightly by the markets, with the metals sector in particular sitting up to take note.

　　中国银行本周警告说，全球经济处于二次衰退的边缘，并提醒说中国经济增速可能因此放缓。中国四大国有商业银行之一的话不会被市场轻视，金属行业尤其对此倍加关注。

　　Its September trade surplus is smaller than expected; anecdotal reports suggest the country's informal lending sector is on the verge of a Chinese version of the euro-zone credit crisis; and the battle against inflation continues.

　　9月份中国贸易顺差小于预期。有未经证实的报道说，中国的民间借贷处于类似欧元区信贷危机的边缘。此外，通胀阻击战仍在继续。

　　Then reports of Dr. Bo's comments started to filter out.

　　之后，各种有关赵波言论的报道开始纷纷出来。

　　More apparently bad news for copper, if its biggest consumer said the country had plenty of material.

　　对铜来说更明显的坏消息是，最大的铜消费国说自己有着大量的铜材。

　　There could be another explanation, however. The effect of the comments has been to dampen sentiment further and cap any upside that prices were starting to see this week. Investors have short memories, with the ETF filing estimates already long-forgotten. The market will probably never know exactly how much copper is sitting in Chinese warehouses, ports and even, if tales are to be believed, next to the pigs in farmers' fields.

　　不过，还可能有另外一种解释。中国这样说是为了进一步给投资热情降温，遏制铜价本周开始出现的上涨势头。投资者非常健忘，交易所买卖基金申报文件中的估测数据早被抛到脑后。市场可能永远无法确切知道中国的仓库、港口，甚至是农田里游走的猪旁边（如果可以相信传言的话）有多少铜。

　　And what exactly does China want, as a buyer of metal? Lower prices. If the country has been destocking, using up some of the metal it bought before prices soared, then it's going to need to buy more again soon. Import data earlier Thursday showed that China was savvy enough to do that last month, with refined copper imports reaching their highest for 16 months.

　　此外，中国作为金属买家到底想要什么？更低的价格。如果中国一直在清空库存，用去价格飙升之前买进的一部分铜，那么它很快会需要买进更多的铜。周四早些时候公布的进口数据显示，中国上个月明智地买进了铜，精铜进口量达到16个月来的最高水平。

　　Underestimating China is the last thing any copper market participant should ever do.

　　铜市场的任何参与者都不应该低估中国。