China’s largest real estate developer believes the country’s property market, a key driver for the economy, has turned and expects conditions to worsen in the coming months as sales prices volumes decline further.

　　中国最大的房产开发商认为，国内房产市场（中国经济的关键推动因素之一）已经转向，并预期未来几个月里情况将变得更加糟糕，销售量和价格进一步下降。

　　China Vanke, the country’s biggest developer by market share, said government efforts during the past year to rein in soaring prices were having a severe impact and developers were being squeezed after sales volumes in 14 of the largest cities halved in September from a year earlier.

　　按市场份额计算，万科集团(China Vanke)是中国最大的房产开发商。该公司表示，过去一年里政府为遏制楼价飙升而采取的一系列努力，正造成严重冲击，9月份，14个大中城市的销售量同比减半，开发商受到挤压。

　　“We can see a trend of declining sales, especially in major cities,” Shirley Xiao, executive vice-president at China Vanke, said on a conference call with investors on Tuesday. “Prices have begun to decline little by little so we think even buyers who are able to buy will choose to wait because they’re targeting even lower price cuts.”

　　“我们可以看到销售不断萎缩的趋势，尤其是在大城市，”万科执行副总裁肖莉周二在电话会议上对投资者表示。“价格已开始逐渐缓缓下降，因此我们认为，即便是那些有能力购房的买家，也将选择等待，因为他们期望价格进一步下降。”

　　In recent days, small and sporadic demonstrations have broken out at a handful of real estate sales offices in large cities such as Shanghai, with angry recent homebuyers organising sit-ins and demanding refunds after developers started offering discounts on neighbouring apartments to attract customers.

　　近日，上海等大城市一些楼盘的售楼处爆发了小规模的零星示威，不久前购房的买家在售楼处与开发商人员僵持，要求退款。此前开发商为吸引顾客，开始对邻近的公寓楼提供折扣。

　　Investors and analysts are watching the Chinese real estate sector closely for signs of collapse because of its importance to the overall economy and the effect a crash could have on everything from global steel and copper prices to social stability in the world’s second-biggest economy.

　　投资者和分析师正在密切关注中国房产行业，留意各种崩盘迹象，原因是该行业对中国整体经济十分重要，若该行业陷入严重低迷，可能对很多事产生影响，从全球钢价和铜价，到全球第二大经济体的社会稳定。

　　A 30 per cent drop in property prices would precipitate a collapse in fixed investment in China and the investment-driven economy would experience a so-called hard landing after years of annual growth above 9 per cent, said Wang Tao, a UBS economist.

　　瑞银(UBS)经济学家汪涛表示，若房价下跌30%，将引发中国固定投资崩盘，由投资推动的中国经济在多年保持9%以上的年度增长后，将经历一场所谓的硬着陆。

　　Property investment accounts for more than 20 per cent of total fixed investment in China and UBS estimates almost 30 per cent of final products in the economy are absorbed by the property sector.

　　房产投资占中国固定投资总额的20%以上，据瑞银估计，中国经济近30%的最终产品是被房产行业吸收的。

　　“A property-led hard landing scenario is quite likely in the next few years, even though we do not think the property market is about to collapse now,” Ms Wang said.

　　“房产引发的硬着陆在今后几年里相当可能发生，尽管我们不认为房产市场即将崩盘，”汪涛表示。

　　Debt-laden provincial governments in China rely heavily on land sales for revenue and have poured investment into commercial housing projects.

　　背负沉重债务负担的中国省级政府，在财政收入方面严重依赖土地销售，同时它们向商品房项目大举投资。

　　These local authorities also account for up to 30 per cent of all outstanding bank loans, many of which are collateralised by land and housing developments, so a collapse in the property market could have a devastating knock-on effect.

　　此外，在中国的未偿还银行贷款总量中，地方政府所欠贷款占至多30%，其中许多贷款是用土地和住房开发项目抵押的，因此房产市场崩盘可能造成摧毁性的连锁效应。

　　A property crash could also be politically destabilising as it would especially hurt the new property-owning middle class, who are the most important constituents for the ruling Communist party. Ms Xiao said Vanke expects price declines in the market to be slow and gradual but if developer discounts become more severe it will follow with its own price cuts.

　　楼市崩盘还可能在政治上带来影响稳定的效应，因为这将特别沉重地打击新生的、拥有房产的中国中产阶层，这些人对执政的共产党构成最重要的支持基础。肖莉表示，万科预期，房价下降将是缓慢而渐进的，但如果其他开发商出台更大幅度的折扣，该公司也将拿出自己的减价措施。

　　Average housing prices for the entire country still increased in September from a year earlier, according to official data, but the rate of increase slowed.

　　官方数据显示，9月份中国全国的平均楼价仍出现同比上升，但增速有所放缓。

　　Despite falling sales and the difficulties they face getting funding, developers are reluctant to offer steep discounts because they hope the government will rescue the market by lifting credit and housing purchase restrictions introduced over the past year.

　　尽管销售下降，而且在融资方面遭遇困难，但各家开发商仍不愿提供大幅折扣，因为他们希望政府将出手救市，解除过去一年期间出台的各种信贷和购房限制。

　　“We have a stand-off between homebuyers, developers and the government and everyone is taking a wait-and-see attitude,” Du Jinsong, a real estate analyst at Credit Suisse, said. “This could be very dangerous because if developers all wait until the very last minute to offer discounts the downside for the whole market will be significant.”

　　“目前购房者、开发商与政府之间出现僵持，大家都在采取静观其变的态度，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地产分析师杜劲松表示。“这可能是很危险的，因为如果各家开发商都等到最后一刻才提供折扣，整个市场的下行趋势将相当大。”

　　Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, suggested on Saturday that support for the property market is unlikely to come soon as he urged all levels of government to continue strictly implementing Beijing’s tightening measures.

　　中国总理温家宝上周六暗示，政府不太可能很快采取行动支持房产市场。他敦促各级政府继续严格执行北京方面的收紧措施。

　　Vanke said its third-quarter net profit rose 32 per cent from a year earlier to Rmb606m ($95m).

　　万科表示，第三季度净利润同比增长32%，至6.06亿元人民币（合9500万美元）。