After falling more than any other leading Asian equity index in 2010, the Shanghai Composite has jumped almost 9 per cent this year – making it the region’s best performer.

　　上证指数2010年的跌幅居亚洲主要股指之首，但今年迄今，该指数已经跃增近9%，成为亚洲地区表现最好的股指。

　　The new optimism of Chinese investors is underpinned by the increasingly widespread belief that the government has won, or is close to winning, its battle against rising inflation.

　　中国投资者新生的乐观情绪，受到了一个传播得越来越广泛的信念的支撑：中国政府抗击通胀的战斗已经或是即将获得胜利。

　　That idea will be put to the test on Friday when Beijing releases a treasure trove of statistics on the economy, including gross domestic product for the first quarter and inflation figures for March.

　　这种观点将在本周五得到验证，届时，中国政府将发布一系列重要的经济数据，包括一季度的国内生产总值(GDP)和3月份的通胀数据。

　　“Everybody is watching Friday’s numbers,” says Victoria Mio, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at Robeco, who warns it is too soon to conclude Chinese inflation is under control.

　　“所有人都在关注周五的数据，”荷宝(Robeco)驻香港基金经理缪子美(Victoria Mio)表示。她警告，现在就得出中国通胀已经得到控制的结论还太早。

　　Too high an inflation number would raise the prospect that the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, will need to tighten monetary policy more aggressively than expected.

　　如果通胀率过高，那么中国央行可能就有必要以比预期更大的力度收紧货币政策。

　　In the past, mainland stock prices have been strongly influenced by the amount of money and credit sloshing around the economy. So moves by the PBoC to rein in bank lending or raise interest rates can hit the market hard – and were a key reason for the Shanghai market’s decline in 2010.

　　过去，流动在中国经济中的资金和信贷额会对中国内地股市价格产生影响。因此中国央行抑制银行放贷或是提高利率，都会给市场造成巨大冲击——这也是上海股市2010年下跌的一个重要原因。

　　Official data showed consumer prices rose 4.9 per cent in February from a year earlier, exceeding the government’s full-year target of 4 per cent. Economists estimate the figure for March will be about 5.2 per cent.

　　官方数据显示，今年2月，中国的消费者价格指数同比上涨4.9%，超出了政府4%的全年目标。经济学家估计3月份的数字会在5.2%左右。

　　Some analysts, and many consumers, question whether the official data can be relied upon to reflect the true extent of the price rises sweeping in the country. “Consumer prices are rising at double-digit rates in so many products and services,” says Andy Xie, an independent strategist and former Morgan Stanley economist for Asia. “There are signs that inflation panic is spreading. Hoarding is already visible from time to time. When it becomes widespread, a social crisis is likely.”

　　一些分析人士和许多消费者都对官方数据不放心，怀疑它们能否反映席卷全国的物价上涨的实际程度。“许多商品和服务的消费者价格都在以两位数的速度上涨，”独立策略师、摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)前亚洲经济学家谢国忠(Andy Xie)表示。“有迹象表明，通胀恐慌正在蔓延。囤积现象时有发生。一旦变得普遍起来，便有可能爆发社会危机。”

　　Yet most analysts expect inflation will peak at about 5-6 per cent in the middle of this year, thanks to a series of tightening measures by the PBoC over the past six months.

　　不过，大多数分析师预计，由于中国央行过去半年采取的一系列紧缩措施，中国的通胀率将在今年年中达到5%至6%的峰值，然后回落。

　　Last week the central bank raised interest rates for the fourth time in five months, increasing the deposit rate to 3.25 per cent and the lending rate to 6.31 per cent. The increase “gets us close enough to the end of China’s late tightening cycle to mitigate a key policy overhang”, says Michael Kurtz, a Hong Kong-based strategist at Macquarie.

　　上周，中国央行5个月来第四次上调了利率，将一年期存贷款利率分别上调至3.25%和6.31%。麦格理集团(Macquarie)驻香港策略师迈克尔?库尔茨(Michael Kurtz)表示，加息之后，“中国为消除一个重要政策威胁而进行的最新一轮紧缩已逼近尾声”。

　　Mr Kurtz is one of several investment bank analysts who have this month lifted their recommendations for Chinese stocks from “underweight” to “neutral” within Asian equity portfolios.

　　本月，有几位投资银行的分析师把亚洲股票组合中对中国股票的投资建议从“减持”上调至“中性”，库尔茨便是其中之一。

　　“There are a growing number of strategists who have turned more positive on China in the belief that the central bank has nearly completed its tightening process and will shortly be able to declare victory in the inflation battle,” says David Shairp of JPMorgan Asset Management. “By contrast, the historian’s perspective is that it may be too early to declare victory over inflation, given the scale of the monetary boom that preceded it.”

　　 “越来越多的策略师对中国更加乐观，他们相信，中国央行的紧缩过程已接近完成，很快就会宣告抗击通胀获胜，”JP摩根资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的戴维?谢普(David Shairp)称。“与此形成反差的是，历史学家认为，考虑到此前货币激增的规模，宣称战胜通胀或许还为时过早。”

　　Chinese banks issued Rmb7,950bn ($1,200bn) in new renminbi-denominated loans in 2010, overshooting the Rmb7,500bn target Beijing set at the start of the year. But money supply growth has moderated in recent months as government tightening has started to bite.

　　 2010年，中国各银行新增人民币贷款7.95万亿元人民币（合1.2万亿美元），超过了政府年初设定的7.5万亿元的目标。但随着政府的紧缩政策开始发挥效力，货币供应增幅最近几个月有所放缓。

　　Alan Lam, China analyst at Julius Baer, the Swiss private bank, says the Shanghai market has largely priced in the tightening measures and the slowdown in money supply growth.

　　瑞士私人银行宝盛集团(Julius Baer)的中国分析师林志远(Alan Lam)表示，紧缩措施和货币供应增长放缓基本上已体现在上海股市的价格之中。

　　He reckons the Shanghai Composite will rise to 3,300 points by the end of 2011, compared with Wednesday’s closing level of 3,050.4.

　　他认为，上证综指将在2011年底前升至3300点。该指数周三收于3050.4点。

　　China bulls point out that, despite the recent tightening measures, inflation is still higher than Chinese deposit rates – an incentive for mainland investors to speculate on stocks rather than keep cash in the bank.

　　看涨中国的人士指出，尽管最近出台了多项紧缩政策，但中国的通胀率依然高于存款利率——这会激励内地投资者到股市上去投机，而不是把钱存进银行。

　　To back up their view, they also argue that mainland stocks look inexpensive. The Shanghai Composite is trading at about 14 times forecast earnings, according to Bloomberg data, or a 25 per cent discount to its average over the past five years.

　　为了支持自己的观点，他们还指出，内地股市似乎价格偏低。彭博(Bloomberg)的数据显示，上证综指目前的预期市盈率在14倍左右，较过去5年的平均水平低25%。

　　The Graham-Dodd price-to-earnings ratio is a more conservative valuation metric based on inflation- adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. By this measure, Chinese equities are trading at a multiple of about 25, close to their long-term average but much higher than other major equity markets.

　　格雷厄姆-多德(Graham-Dodd)市盈率是一个更加保守的估值指标，使用的是过去十年经通胀因素调整后的利润。按此标准衡量，中国股市的市盈率在25倍左右，接近长期平均水平，但远高于其它主要股市。

　　The Hong Kong-listed shares of mainland Chinese companies, known as H shares, have seen big inflows from international investors in recent weeks as global fund managers increase their exposure to China. This month H share companies concluded their full year 2010 results season. Earnings, on average, beat consensus by about 7 per cent.

　　最近几周，随着跨国基金管理公司增加对中国的投资，来自国际投资者的大量资金流入了在香港上市的内地公司股票，即所谓的H股。H股公司2010年财报的发布于本月结束，它们的收益平均比预期高出7%。

　　With earnings on the rise and valuations below long-term averages, the bulls reckon the rally shows little sign of stopping. All they need now is for inflation to peak and the Chinese economy to keep on humming.

　　鉴于收益在上升而估值低于长期平均水平，看涨者认为此次反弹几乎丝毫没有结束的迹象。他们现在需要的只是通胀见顶回落和中国经济继续蓬勃发展。