Instant messaging applications for mobile devices, such as BlackBerry Messenger, are becoming so popular that use of text messages by 15-24 year olds will fall by a fifth in many large markets including the UK, analysts predict.

　　分析师们预测，随着移动设备上的即时通讯应用如BlackBerry Messenger (BBM)日益流行，在英国等许多大型市场的15至24岁用户中，手机短信的使用量将下降五分之一。

　　Mobile Youth, a consultancy, forecasts that text, or SMS, volumes will drop by 20 percent in the next two years in regions including the UK, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil, where BBM is particularly popular among teenagers and students.

　　咨询公司Mobile Youth预计，手机短信(SMS)未来两年在英国、印度尼西亚、南非和巴西的总发送量将下降20%，在这些国家，BlackBerry Messenger在青少年和学生当中尤为流行。

　　"We’ve seen SMS usage fall among young people and the main driver is BlackBerry,” said Graham Brown, director at Mobile Youth.

　　Mobile Youth公司董事格雷厄姆·布朗(Graham Brown)表示：“我们观察到年轻人中的手机短信使用量出现下降，而黑莓(BlackBerry)是主要因素。”

　　BBM usage has exploded in many countries in recent years, with volumes increasing 500 percent.

　　近几年BBM的使用量在许多国家出现爆炸式增长，使用量增幅达500%。

　　More than 39m people use BBM, according to Research in Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, although it is yet to take off significantly in the US.

　　制造黑莓的Research in Motion (RIM)公司称，使用BBM的用户超过3900万人，尽管这项服务在美国尚未大规模流行。

　　Text messaging has been a cash cow for mobile operators in recent years but instant messaging services allow unlimited mobile chat without needing to pay for each transmission.

　　最近几年手机短信一直是移动运营商的摇钱树，但使用即时通讯服务可以不受限制地移动聊天，而不需要为每条消息付费。

　　BBM is free on BlackBerry devices, even for “pay and go” users with no monthly contract, while other smartphone apps such as Beluga and WhatsApp use minimal amounts of data, and charge a small one-off fee.

　　在黑莓手机上BBM是免费的，即使对没有包月费的“随用随付”用户也是如此，而其他智能手机应用程序，如Beluga和WhatsApp，会使用极少量的数据流量，并收取少量的一次性费用。

　　"Talking to some of the operators, BBM has certainly had an impact on their SMS revenue,” said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys.

　　Canalys公司高级分析师皮特?坎宁安(Pete Cunningham)表示：“与一些运营商的交谈显示，BBM肯定对他们的短信收入造成了影响。”

　　Richard Windsor, mobile analyst at Nomura, has predicted that instant messaging clients could hit SMS, although he has not seen any impact yet.

　　野村证券(Nomura)移动产业分析师理查德·温莎(Richard Windsor)曾预测，即时通讯客户端可能打击手机短信，不过迄今他还没有观察到任何影响。

　　"Once it [SMS] starts to decline, I think it could continue to decline until it hits zero,” he said.

　　他说：“（手机短信）一旦开始下降，我认为它会一路下降到零。”

　　Operators could stand to benefit in some ways from instant messaging because BBM used their network more efficiently than SMS, saving operating costs, said RIM.

　　RIM称，即时通讯服务在某些方面也会对运营商有利，因为相比手机短信，BBM能以更高效率使用运营商的网络，节省运行成本。