The U.S. economy resembles a patient who survived a heart attack, and tells his doctor: "I took your advice, swallowed the pills and I still don't feel well."

　　美国经济就像一位心脏病发作后死里逃生的病人，他对医生说：我听从你的建议吞下了那些药片，但我感觉依然不好。

　　We were warned that the post-recession recovery, now marking its second anniversary, would be painfully slow. It's worse than predicted. And it's hardly reassuring for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to concede: "We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting."

　　我们被警告说，目前正进入第三个年头的衰退后经济复苏，其速度将令人痛苦地缓慢。复苏情况比预期的差。美联储（Federal Reserve）主席贝南克（Ben Bernanke）的话也难以令人安心。他说：我们无法对于美国经济为何持续以较慢的速度增长做出精确的解读。

　　Although U.S. unemployment is at 9.1% and forecast to remain above 8% through next year, the Fed says it won't do more to help the economy. The adrenalin of fiscal stimulus is wearing off. And Washington is fixated on deficits and debt ceilings. Is there really nothing to be done to help the economy heal?

　　虽然美国的失业率目前为9.1%，并且预计直到明年之前都将维持在8%以上，但美联储说，它不会再出台更多措施来提振美国经济。财政刺激措施的效应正在逐渐减弱。华盛顿目前关注的焦点是财政赤字和政府债务上限。真的无法再做什么事来帮助美国经济复苏了吗？

　　One set of physicians, the Keynesians, are sure their medicine worked, but the dosage was insufficient. They prescribe more stimulus, perhaps renewing the payroll-tax holiday that is to expire at year end.

　　一批给美国经济诊病的凯恩斯主义者确信，他们开的药已经见效，不过药物的剂量还不够。他们建议政府采取更多经济刺激措施，比如可以考虑延长工资税减免期，这一减免本应于今年底结束。

　　Another set, influential among Republicans, is just as sure the medicine didn't work. They prescribe the opposite: Starve the fever--cut spending significantly and soon.

　　而另一批给美国经济开药方的人则确信凯恩斯主义者给的药没有见效。这批在共和党人中很有影响力的人开出了与凯恩斯主义者针锋相对的药方：以毒攻毒──立即大幅削减政府支出。

　　A third set, influenced by professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart's history of financial crises, says deleveraging is like detox: Painful, takes time and can't be rushed.

　　还有一批人受到肯尼斯•罗格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）和卡门•莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）教授金融危机史的影响，他们认为去杠杆化就像是戒毒：痛苦、费时、急不得。

　　To be clear: Like a middle-aged man who needs to exercise, quit smoking and eat fewer French fries, the U.S. government needs to enact now a credible, long-term plan to reduce future budget deficits. Period. But that doesn't mean deficit reduction alone will unleash a surge of growth and hiring.

　　显然，就像一个需要锻炼、戒烟和减少吃炸土豆片的中年男人一样，美国政府现在也需要制定出一个可信的长期计划来降低未来的预算赤字。但这并不意味着仅靠削减赤字就能引发经济增速和就业率的大幅增长。

　　Remember: The worse the economy, the bigger the deficit. One-percentage-point slower economic growth in 2011 (even if the economy rebounds in 2012) adds nearly $100 billion to the 10-year deficit estimate.

　　请记住：经济形势越差，政府赤字就越大。如果2011年的经济增长率减少一个百分点（即使经济在2012年出现反弹），美国未来10年的财政赤字预计就将因此增加近1,000亿美元。

　　References to "political reality" and reminders that "it could have been worse" aren't policy. If the president and Congress want to slip some growth-inducing remedies into the pending deficit deal, what should they examine with an unjaundiced eye?

　　以“政治现实”为借口或提醒人们（如果不是出台了某项政策）“情况可能更糟”都不是解决问题之道。如果美国总统和国会想在目前悬而未决的赤字削减协议中加入可促进美国经济增长的措施，他们在不带偏见的前提下应该考虑哪些因素呢？

　　--Housing. Home prices have fallen longer and farther than anticipated. A glut of empty or foreclosed homes continues to depress prices, making all American homeowners poorer and refinancing impossible for underwater borrowers.

　　——住房。美国房价下跌的时间和幅度都已长于预期。大量空置或被止赎的住房继续打压着房价，使美国所有的房主都遭遇了财富缩水，使那些房屋价值已低于该房未偿按揭贷款的房主不可能对按揭贷款进行再融资。

　　At the president's insistence, his staff has examined nearly every untried option, and rejected them all. It's time for a rethink, in light of the persistently sour housing market. Perhaps state-owned enterprises Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mae (FMCC) should be deployed to refinance credit-worthy underwater borrowers. Perhaps the federal government should buy foreclosed homes from banks and give them to local governments to fix up and rent.

　　在奥巴马的坚持下，白宫工作人员研究了几乎所有未试过的方法，最后都一一否决了。在楼市持续恶化之际，是该重新想一想的时候了。或许，国有企业房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mae)应该受命为信用良好但资不抵债的借款人再融资。或许，联邦政府应该从银行手里买下止赎的住房，交给地方政府修缮一新、租赁出去。

　　--Hiring. The cycle is clear: Consumers won't spend more because so many are out of work or worried about losing their jobs. But employers won't hire more at home because they are uncertain demand will be there. Tax breaks to give consumers spending money is one approach, but maybe it's time for another: Nudge employers to hire with a tax credit for every worker they add or every extra dollar they spend on payrolls. Yes, it will reward some employers who would have hired otherwise. But 4.4 million Americans have been unemployed for more than a year, their prospects for ever going back to work diminishing. Watchful waiting is costly and cruel.

　　——招聘。周期很清楚：消费者不会花更多的钱，因为太多人已经失业或担心失业。然而，雇主不会在国内雇佣更多的人，因为他们不确定是否会有需求。实施减免税措施以便给消费者用于支出的钱，这是一种方法，但现在或许是采取另外一种方法的时候：激励雇主招聘，对雇佣的每位新员工或工资支出中额外的每一块钱提供减免税。不错，这将使一些本来就打算招聘的雇主拣了便宜。不过，目前已经有440万美国人失业一年以上，他们重新找到工作的可能性正在不断减小。观望等待不但要付出高昂代价，也是残酷无情的。

　　--Confidence. The only sustainable way to get the economy moving is for business to invest and hire more. Business spending on computers and equipment is up, but S&P 500 companies still have nearly $1 trillion of idle cash. Shoring up business confidence is the cheapest form of stimulus. Moving from rhetoric on exports to passing free-trade pacts would be a plus. So would a bipartisan deal on deficits. And so would appointing and confirming regulators for a growing list of vacancies. Suing Boeing Co. (BA) over where it puts its plants doesn't help.

　　——信心。推动经济增长的唯一可持续方式是让企业更多的投资、更多的招人。企业在电脑和设备上的支出在增加，不过标准普尔500指数成份股公司仍有近1万亿美元的闲置资金。提振企业信心是成本最低的刺激方式。不再大谈出口，而是通过自由贸易协定，这将有所帮助。在赤字问题上达成两党一致同意的协议也会有所帮助。此外，任命和批准监管人员担任越来越多的空缺岗位，这也有好处。不过，就在何处建厂的问题起诉波音公司(Boeing Co.)却不会有任何助益。

　　But just because something will make executives feel better doesn't mean it's a good idea. Declaring a tax holiday for repatriating foreign earnings will boost spirits, but isn't likely to add many jobs or much investment, based on academic scrutiny of the 2004 tax holiday. One fact: Of the nearly $1 trillion in cash on S&P 500 companies' books, about 60% is already in the U.S., according to S&P and a new survey by the Association for Financial Professionals. Big business isn't short of cash.

　　不过，仅仅因为有些事会让高管感觉好一点儿，并不意味着就是好事。对2004年减税措施的学术研究显示，宣布对把海外收益带回国实施减税措施，这会振奋精神，但不太可能创造更多的就业岗位或带来更多的投资。有一个事实是：据标准普尔的数据和美国财资管理专业人士协会(Association for Financial Professionals)进行的一项新的调查显示，标准普尔500指数成份股公司帐面上的近1万亿美元闲置资金，约60%已经在美国国内。大企业并不缺钱。

　　--Infrastructure. The initial Obama stimulus was flawed in design and poorly explained. Shovel-ready projects weren't so shovel-ready, as the president has noted. But the federal government can borrow at below 3%, construction workers are idle, and many U.S. roads, subways and airports seem Third World-like compared with China's new ones. How about a quick round of government-funded infrastructure maintenance, putting some unemployed to work today on chores we'll have to do someday anyhow?

　　——基础设施。奥巴马政府最初的刺激措施在设计上存在缺陷，解释得也不清楚。正如奥巴马所指出的，已经准备动工的项目实际上并没有准备好。不过，鉴于联邦政府可以以不到3%的利率借款，建筑工人无事可做，与中国崭新的基础设施相比，美国很多的公路、地铁和机场看起来就像是第三世界国家的一样，那么由政府提供资金迅速地来一轮基础设施维护、现在就让一些失业者做一些我们早晚需要做的事情，这个方法怎么样？

　　When times are tough, resignation isn't usually the American way. Why should it be now?

　　在困难时期，听天由命通常并非美国的做法。那么现在为什么要听天由命呢？