Urbanization is a cornerstone of China's development strategy. But the relationship between a growing urban population and a sustainable growth path isn't as straightforward as many investors believe.

　　城市化是中国发展战略的一个基石。但城镇人口不断增长与走上可持续发展道路之间的关系，却不像许多投资者认为的那么直接。

　　China's urbanization, and its beneficial effect on growth, is taken as an article of faith.

　　在这些投资者看来，中国的城市化及其对经济增长的有益影响，是一个不容怀疑的信条。

　　Concerned about a Japan-style collapse in China's property sector? Don't worry, a growing urban population underpins demand for apartments. Worried about China's overreliance on investment as a driver of growth? Fear not, a growing army of city slickers will have higher incomes and consume more.

　　担心中国楼市像日本那样崩溃？不用怕，城镇人口的增长支撑着单元楼房的需求。害怕中国过度依赖投资作为增长动力？别担心，城市人队伍将不断壮大，收入将越来越高，消费也会越来越多。

　　The trend in the official data appears clear enough. China's urban population has grown from 19% of the total in 1980 to 50% in 2010. That is still some way off an urbanization ratio above 70% in many developed countries, so there is more to come. Urban per-capita disposable income in 2010 was more than three times income in rural areas, and 86% of retail sales came from urban areas, so the transition to city life should support higher levels of consumption.

　　官方数据里的趋势相当明显。中国城镇人口占总人口的比例已从1980年的19%扩大至2010年的50%。这与很多发达国家70%以上的城市化率相比仍有一段距离，所以还会进一步提高。2010年城镇人均可支配收入超过农村地区的三倍，零售销售总额的86%都来自于城镇地区，所以，向城市生活的转变应当会支撑更高水平的消费。

　　But as is often the case with China's data, not all is what it seems. The crucial point is that rural residents can move to the city, but without an urban residence permit -- known as an urban hukou -- they are confined to the margins of city life. According to Professor Kam Wing Chan, an expert on China's urbanization at the University of Washington, the share of China's population that has urban residence rights is around 35%, substantially below the 50% of the population that live in the cities.

　　但中国的数据常常不能只看表面。关键之处在于农村居民可以搬到城市，但在没有获得城镇居住许可（即城镇户口）的情况下，他们就只能处于城市生活的边缘。据华盛顿大学(University of Washington)中国城市化问题专家陈金永(Kam Wing Chan)估计，城镇户籍人口约占中国总人口的35%，明显低于居住在城市的人口所占比例50%。

　　The 171 million migrant workers who fall into that hole have an average wage of around $3,600 a year, compared with an average of $5,700 for registered urban workers. That is more than they earned in the countryside. But although they might have built China's glittering new residential compounds, living in dormitories in twilight zones on the edges of the city, they are hardly likely to buy an apartment in one of them.

　　这个差距就是为数1.71亿的农民工，他们一年的平均工资在3,600美元左右（城镇户籍劳动者平均工资5,700美元），高于在农村的收入水平。然而，尽管他们可能建起了中国灿烂夺目的新小区，自己却住在城郊结合部的集体宿舍里，不太可能去购买某个新小区里的单元房。

　　As important, the line between rural and urban hukou status is difficult to cross.

　　同样重要的是，农村和城镇户籍之间的界线很难逾越。

　　The children of migrant workers are still excluded from the mainstream of the urban education system, and are marginalized in urban labor markets, even though they were born and grew up in the city. They are more likely to be a source of social unrest than a catalyst for changing China's development model.

　　虽在城市里出生和长大，农民工子女仍旧不能进入主流的城镇教育系统，在城镇劳动力市场也受到排挤。他们更有可能成为社会不稳定的源泉，而不是改变中国发展模式的催化剂。

　　China's move toward a more urban society is real. But without reform to the hukou system to bring migrants into the mainstream of urban opportunity, a bigger city population won't be the straightforward driver of consumption growth that many take as a given.

　　中国正在转变为一个越来越“城市”的社会，这是真的。但如果不改革户口制度，让农民工获得城镇主流社会享有的机遇，那么城市人口数量的增加就不会像很多人认为理所当然的那样，成为消费增长的直接驱动器。