China’s central bank likes to keep things mysterious. Its latest move - a policy shift that increases banks’ requirements to keep funds in reserve rather than use them to make loans - was communicated privately to the banks with no official announcement to the markets. Associated Press/Xinhua

　　中国央行喜欢把事情搞得很神秘。其最新措施就是通过私下渠道向银行传达的，没有正式向市场公布。这条措施要求银行把更多资金存为准备金，而不是用来发放贷款。

　　Secret or otherwise, at first sight the policy shift looks like a move toward tightening. After all, tying up funds in the central bank’s vaults rather than allowing them to be loaned out will hardly support growth in China’s credit-addicted economy. The markets certainly interpreted it that way, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.4% Monday, bucking a rising trend for other markets in the region.

　　不管神秘不神秘，初看之下，这个政策变化似乎是朝着紧缩迈出的一步。毕竟，把央行金库里的资金冻结起来、不让贷出去，将很难对依赖信贷的中国经济增长形成支撑。市场肯定是这样解读的，周一上证综合指数一反地区内其他市场的上涨趋势，下跌了1.4%。

　　But first sight might not tell the whole story. Sustained trade surpluses, illegal hot money inflows and foreign direct investment mean there is a constant stream of cash coming into China’s economy. On average in the first 7 months of 2011 China’s banks purchased a net 258 billion yuan ($40.4 billion) a month in foreign exchange.

　　但第一眼的印象不一定是全貌。持续的贸易顺差、非法热钱流入和外商直接投资，都意味着将有资金源源不断地流入中国经济之中。2011年前七个月，中国银行业平均每个月净买入人民币2,580亿元（约合404亿美元）的外汇。

　　The Central Bank is engaged in a constant battle to prevent that cash finding its way into the domestic economy, stoking inflationary pressure. Their weapons of choice: increases in the reserve requirement ratio and sales of low yielding bonds. Both force the banks to hand the cash over to the Central Bank rather than lending it out.

　　央行参与了一场旷日持久的行动，要阻断这些资金流入国内经济、加剧通胀压力的通道。他们喜欢使用的工具是上调存款准备金率并出售低息债券。两种办法都强制要求银行把现金交给央行，而不是贷出去。

　　The new policy will have the same effect. With banks now required to hold reserves against 4.4 trillion yuan of cash currently held in margin deposits and the reserve requirement ratio currently at 21.5% for major banks, the final impact will be to drain almost 900 billion yuan from the banks' coffers.

　　新政策将产生同样的效果。银行已被要求针对当前4.4万亿元的保证金存款缴纳准备金，而当前主要银行的法定存款准备金率为21.5%，由此来看，最终影响将是从银行的金库里吸走接近人民币9,000亿元的流动性。

　　But by phasing in the change over the next six months, the drain will be offset by the continued inflows into the financial system. Consider, in September the new policy will require the banks to pay an extra 151 billion into reserves. If inflows from the trade surplus, hot money and elsewhere stay in line with their level in the first 7-months of the year they would more than compensate for the drain on liquidity.

　　但由于这一变化将在接下来六个月逐步实施，吸走的流动性将被不断流入金融系统的流动性所抵消。想想，在9月份，新政策将要求银行把额外的1,510亿元缴存为准备金。如果来自贸易顺差、热钱和其他渠道的流动性流入水平跟今年头七个月一样，那么这些流动性除了补偿被吸走的那一部分之外就还有剩余。

　　Of course, continued inflows cannot always be counted on. Twice since the beginning of 2010 China's monthly trade surplus has turned to deficit. If the U.S. or European economies take a turn for the worse, hot money flows could even change direction and start heading back offshore -- that is what happened at the height of the financial crisis in early 2009.

　　当然不能总是指望流动性持续流入。2010年年初以来，中国月度贸易顺差曾经两次出现逆差。如果美国或欧洲经济急转直下，热钱甚至有可能改变流动方向，开始回流至境外。2009年年初金融危机最严重时期就是这样一种情况。

　　There are 813 billion yuan in central bank bonds falling due before the end of February, of which 351 billion yuan come due in September. That means 351 billion yuan flowing back from the central bank to the banks. Normally the monetary policy makers would sell more bonds to replace those falling due. But if they want to help banks cough up the cash needed to meet the new reserve requirement they could simply go slow on bond issuance.

　　有8,130亿元的央票在明年2月之前到期，其中3,510亿元在9月到期。这意味着将有3,510亿元的资金从央行回流到银行。正常情况下，货币政策制定者会出售新的债券来替代这些到期债券。但如果他们希望帮助银行筹集现金、满足新的准备金要求，则有可能放慢发行债券的步伐。

　　A more extreme move, and one that has been rumored in the markets, would be to cut the reserve requirement ratio. A one percentage point cut in the ratio would release around 760 billion yuan in funds, almost matching the drain from the new policy move.

　　一个更极端的措施，也是市场盛传的措施，将是下调存款准备金率。存款准备金率下调一个百分点，就会释放7,600亿元的资金，接近新政策吸走的资金。

　　On its own, the central bank's latest gambit is a tightening of the reigns. But if China's economy shows signs of slowing, the monetary policy makers have ways and means of neutralizing its impact.

　　就其本身而言，央行的新措施是一种收紧。但如果中国经济显示出放缓迹象，货币政策制定者是有办法冲销其影响的。