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A new way for indebted European governments to relieve the pressure: Hint that China will ride to the rescue with its mountain of foreign-exchange reserves.
债务缠身的欧洲政府缓解压力的一个新方法是:暗示中国将用自己的巨额外汇储备出手相救。
Rome is the latest to hope that Beijing will save it from the monsters in the bond market. Officials from its finance ministry are in discussions with China over a significant purchase of Italian bonds. They follow a long line of Spanish, Greek and Hungarian hopefuls who have trumpeted an increase in Chinese purchases.
罗马是最新一个希望北京将把它从债市妖魔手中拯救出来的欧洲政府。意大利财政部的官员们正在与中国就大量购买意大利国债举行会谈。在意大利政府之前,有希望得到救助的西班牙、希腊和匈牙利政府都曾大肆宣扬中国会增持其国债。
China certainly has the funds to make a difference. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange manages $3.19 trillion in reserves, with $274 billion to spend in the first half of 2011. A similar amount in the second half would allow China to cover the cost of redeeming all the debt the Italian finance ministry has falling due.
中国无疑拥有可以带来巨大不同的资金。中国国家外汇管理局管理着3.19万亿美元外汇储备,其中2011年上半年将用掉2,740亿美元。下半年的类似数额将使中国有能力买下意大利财政部即将到期的全部债务。
China hasn't been shy about claiming credit for supporting Europe in its hour of need. Beijing has also extracted substantial value from side deals, snapping up strategic assets at bargain basement prices. A Greek port leased by state-owned shipping giant Cosco was the most visible. But evidence of a genuine increase in purchases of distressed European sovereign debt is lacking.
中国一直不避讳自称是在危难时刻向欧洲提供支持的功臣。北京还从附带的交易中获得了相当大的价值,以极低的价格收购了战略性资产。中国国有航运巨头中国远洋租赁的一个希腊港口是最明显的例证。不过,却缺乏证据证明中国确实增持了陷入困境的欧洲主权债务。
Consider press reports in July 2010 that SAFE had purchased upward of $500 million in Spanish 10-year debt. That was seen as a vote of confidence in Europe. But any positive impact on sentiment was short-lived. Yields edged down slightly from 4.6% the day the news broke, but by the end of November they had climbed to 5.5%.
想想2010年7月媒体报道的国家外汇管理局购买了逾5亿美元的10年期西班牙国债。当时此举被视为是对欧洲投了信任票。但对投资者信心的正面影响却是短暂的。收益率较消息出炉日的4.6%小幅走低,但去年11月底前收益率攀升至5.5%。
Greece had little more luck. In October 2010, Premier Wen Jiabao made a much-publicized visit in which he promised unwavering support. But if China was buying Greek debt in large volumes, it wasn't evident in the markets. The yield on Greek 10-year debt dipped slightly from 10.1% at the beginning of October, but by the end of the year, it had reached 12.4% and is now at 21.3%.
希腊的运气也没好多少。2010年10月,中国国务院总理温家宝高调访问希腊,期间他承诺坚决提供支持。不过,如果中国大量购买了希腊国债,在市场上却没有体现出来。10年期希腊国债收益率较10月初的10.1%小幅下滑,但截至年底前收益率达到了12.4%,目前则高达21.3%。
Stepping back from the detail, it makes little sense for China to increase its purchases of high-risk European debt. Beijing is concerned enough about the risk of default from the U.S. after the unseemly squabbling over the debt ceiling. They are hardly likely to solve the problem by piling into even riskier assets.
姑且不谈这些细节,中国增持高风险的欧洲国债几乎毫无道理。在美国有失颜面的债务上限论战后,北京已经很担心美国违约的风险。他们不太可能买进更加危险的资产来解决这个问题。
For embattled politicians in Italy and elsewhere, hinting that China is riding to the rescue provides a temporary respite from the steady increase in debt financing pressure. Cozying up to China might also encourage Germany and other neighbors to offer more of a helping hand. But countries hoping for anything more will have an additional cause for distress.
对于意大利等国四面楚歌的政界人士来说,暗示中国将出手相救,这可以在债务融资压力稳步增加时提供暂时喘息的机会。向中国示好还可能促使德国和其他邻国更多地伸出援手。但那些希望获得除此之外更多东西的国家只会自添烦恼。
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