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The Bric quartet – Brazil, China, India and Russia – own the equivalent of about ¢3,000bn in foreign exchange reserves. Combine this immense sum with the resources of European governments and the European Central Bank, and there emerges the seductive vision of a swift and painless end to the eurozone’s sovereign debt and banking crisis. This vision is a mirage.
金砖四国(巴西、中国、印度和俄罗斯)加起来拥有大约3万亿欧元的外汇储备。若将这个巨大的金额与欧洲各国政府和欧洲央行(ECB)的资源结合起来,就会产生一个诱人的愿景:欧元区主权债务和银行业危机迅速而无痛苦地告终。可惜这种愿景是一个幻觉。
The Bric countries undoubtedly fear that Europe’s troubles may soon spread across the oceans and destabilise their economies and financial systems. Such apprehensions may spur the quartet, especially China, to extend some support to the eurozone – at a price, of course. Nevertheless the fundamental responsibility for overcoming the crisis must and will rest with the Europeans themselves.
金砖四国无疑担心,欧洲的麻烦可能很快跨越汪洋大海,蔓延到自己的国家,破坏它们的经济和金融体系的稳定。这种担忧可能促使这四个国家(尤其是中国)向欧元区提供一些支持——当然是有条件的。可是,克服危机的根本责任,必须而且必然会落在欧洲人自己的肩膀上。
The Bric label disguises the fact that the four countries, with which South Africa is sometimes associated, do not really speak with one voice on the world economic stage, let alone co-ordinate their actions in advance. Indian officials were surprised when Brazil proposed on Tuesday that Bric finance ministers and central bank governors should use a meeting in Washington next week to discuss joint action in support of the eurozone. Yet the potential political benefits of such an initiative are obvious. It is a pertinent reminder that the Bric nations are aware not only of the importance of financial market stability, but of the redistribution of global economic power from the west to the east and south.
“金砖四国”这个标签掩盖了一个事实,即这四个国家(有时还要加上南非)在世界经济舞台上并不以一个声音说话,更遑论预先协调它们的行动了。当巴西在周二提议,金砖国家财长和央行行长应当借下周在华盛顿召开的会议之机讨论支持欧元区的联合行动时,印度官员感到意外。然而巴西提议的潜在政治效益是明显的。这恰到好处地提醒了世人:金砖国家不仅意识到金融市场稳定的重要性,还意识到全球经济实力正从西方向东方和南半球转移。
China, as the holder of the world’s largest foreign reserves, has a clear interest in preserving the eurozone’s stability. From its launch in 1999, the euro has been viewed in Beijing as a potential long-term counterweight to the dollar. China is heavily invested in US government debt, alarmed at what it sees as fiscal debauchery in Washington, and frustrated at the party political rancour that has impeded efforts to return the public finances to order. All this makes it conceivable that China will buy limited amounts of European sovereign debt in a bid to lift market sentiment in favour of the euro and earn international political credit for itself.
对于拥有全球最大外汇储备的中国来说,保持欧元区的稳定显然符合其利益。自欧元在1999年问世起,北京方面一直将其视为长期而言有望与美元抗衡的货币。持有大量美国国债的中国,对其眼中美国政府的财政放荡感到震惊;对于妨碍了恢复公共财政的努力的美国党派政治之争,感到失望。这一切都意味着,中国可能购买数量有限的欧洲主权债务,力求提振有利于欧元的市场情绪,并为自己赢得国际政治赞誉。
But China does not hand out free lunches, and Europe has no right to expect any. Beijing is already linking support for the eurozone to official European recognition of China as a market economy. China is also making the point that the Europeans need urgently to get their act together by mastering the debt crisis and reforming their economies. It is a message that is hard to disagree with.
但中国并不提供免费午餐,欧洲也没有权利期待任何施舍。北京方面已经将支持欧元区与欧洲正式承认中国的市场经济地位挂钩。中国还明确指出,欧洲人亟需振作起来,遏制债务危机,改革各国的经济。这话说的让人很难不予以认同。
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