Economists and others weigh in on the economic effects of the Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Their opinions:

　　经济学家等评说日本地震和海啸的经济影响，他们的观点如下：

　　At this stage, it's too early to come up with meaningful estimates of the overall impact of the terrible events in Japan. And, in economic and financial terms, the effects may be dominated by other challenges facing the global economy, including still elevated oil prices and rising interest rates. And much still hinges on the radioactive threat to Japan's more urbanised areas: if that threat fails to transpire, the [1995] Kobe quake provides a useful framework but if the worst happens, all bets are off. -Stephen King, HSBC

　　要对日本各种严重事件的全面影响做出有实质意义的估计，目前为时尚早。另外，经济和金融方面受到的影响或许主要集中于全球经济面临的其他挑战，比如仍旧高企的油价和不断上升的利率。而很多方面还要看日本城市化水平较高地区面临的放射威胁：如果这种威胁不成为现实，1995年神户地震就是一个有用的框架；如果最坏的事情发生，那么怎么赌都是输的。──Stephen King，汇丰

　　The government is focused on controlling the mounting nuclear catastrophe. It is obvious to everyone that the national infrastructure has been impaired in a very important way: Ports are wrecked. The damage extends for hundreds of kilometers up and down the coast, according to satellite pictures. The capacity to produce electricity has been reduced by as much as 40% for now, and probably will be limited to less than 80% of pre-quake/tsunami potential for a very long time. Major companies are shut down because their plants are wrecked, or they cannot get electricity to operate, or they cannot ship their products, or their suppliers are impaired. We have yet to experience all the financial dislocations from this disaster. -Carl Weinberg, High Frequency Economics.

　　Kyodo News/Associated Press图片：超强地震袭击日本政府关注的是控制日益严峻的核灾难。对于所有人都显而易见的是，全国基础设施受到了一种非常重要的破坏，即港口已经瘫痪。从卫星照片来看，绵延海岸线上下几百公里的地区都遭到了破坏。目前发电能力削减了最大40%的幅度，很久一段时间内，可能都会被限制在地震海啸前潜能的80%以下。大公司纷纷关闭，因为工厂瘫痪，或无法获得运营所需的电能，或产品不能发货，或供应商遇到损失。这场灾难造成的金融混乱还没有完全展现。──Carl Weinberg，High Frequency Economics

　　A lot of physical capital in Japan has been destroyed by the tsunami tragedy alone. And more importantly we will never be able to put a value on the loss of human life or the physiological trauma that has been brought upon the Japanese people from these events. But adding the potential for a serious nuclear accident to the equation is nearly incomprehensible… Policy makers should recognize that meaningful stabilizing actions can add enormous value to an incomprehensible situation where risk premiums have skyrocketed. I hope the BoJ understands that it is the one institution in the world that can act swiftly in financial markets to instill some sense of order. I do not believe that there are many Japanese policy makers (or market participants) who believe the 'long term' prospects for Japan are so dim that we should be at equity valuations which are only a few percentage points from the levels reached in mid 2003 or early 2009. But we need believers with strong hands at the moment and that is what central banks are for! -David Zervos, Jefferies & Co.

　　仅海啸悲剧就已经摧毁了日本的很多有形资本。而更重要的是，我们将永远无法为日本人民在这些事件中遭受的生命损失和生理创伤估价。而如果再在等式中加上发生严重核事故的可能性，那就几乎是无法想象了。……政策制定者应当认识到，实质性的稳定措施可以给一种无法想象、风险溢价飙升的形势带来巨大的价值。我希望日本央行知道，它就是世界上唯一能够在金融市场迅速行动、带来一定秩序感的机构。我相信，日本不会有多少政策制定者（或市场参与者）认为，日本“长期”前景如此迷茫，所以股价水平应当只比2003年中期或2009年早期所达水平高几个百分点。但我们这个时候需要有信心、有魄力的人，这个时候央行就应该站出来！──David Zervos，Jefferies & Co.

　　The near-term impact on Japanese growth is likely to be negative and potentially quite large. However, by the end of this year the reconstruction effort is likely to get underway and provide a substantial boost to growth. The big uncertainty about this disaster (and what sets it apart from other such disasters) is that roughly 10% of electricity generation capacity (both nuclear and coal) may be off line for a few months, until oil- and gas-fired plants can ramp up.. In the near-term, this could have major negative ramifications for the Japanese industrial sectors; some steel and automotive factories have already been closed. -Nariman Behravesh, IHS Global Insight

　　对日本经济增长的短期影响可能是负面的，而且有可能非常巨大。但到今年年底，重建工作有可能展开，为增长提供强大推力。这场灾难最大的不确定性（也是它有别于其他类似灾难的地方）是，几个月内，约10%的发电能力（包括核电和煤电）或许无法上网，直到以石油和天然气为动力的火电厂能够赶上来。短期内，这有可能对日本工业部门造成重大负面影响；部分钢铁和汽车工厂就已经关闭。──Nariman Behravesh，IHS Global Insight

　　Of the four broad commodity sectors, we believe energy markets are likely to be most affected since the country imports approximately 85% of its energy use, with nuclear power representing just over 10% of energy consumed in the country. In July 2007, when the Niigita-Chuestsu-Oku earthquake led to the shutdown of the Kashiwasaki-Kariwa nuclear plant, lost nuclear production capacity had to be replaced by other fuel sources such as thermal coal, natural gas, petroleum products (and direct crude burning). -Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank Securities

　　由于在日本，核能发电只能满足其国内能源消费需求的10%，大约85%的能源需求要靠进口满足。因此我们预计，在大宗商品的四大门类中，能源市场有可能受到最严重的影响。2007年7月日本新泻地震导致柏崎刈羽（Kashiwasaki-Kariwa）核电站关闭，因此损失的电力供应得靠热煤、天然气、石油产品（原油直接燃烧）等燃料来满足。──Torsten Slok,德银证券（Deutsche Bank Securities）

　　Though initially, the interruptions in Japan's economy seem to have depressed oil prices, any turn to rebuilding there could have the opposite effect. Longer-term, any departure from nuclear plans could redouble any upward pressure on oil. (Here, of course, it is important to remember that oil prices were already above fundamentals as a result of the North African and Middle Eastern turmoil, which has not disappeared even as the headlines remain dominated by Japan.) -Milton Ezrati, Lord, Abbett & Co.

　　虽然一开始，日本经济受到的干扰似乎抑制了油价，但只要震后重建开始，油价就会上涨。而如果放弃核计划，结果只会加重油价上行的压力（这里当然不要忘了由于北非和中东的动乱局势，油价已经超出正常水平。虽然日本地震占据了各大报纸的头条，但上述地区的动荡并未结束）。──Milton Ezrati,Lord, Abbett & Co

　　The four prefectures most heavily affected by the Tohoku earthquake are Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima and Ibaraki. This region accounts for about 6-7% of the overall Japanese economy… The latest earthquake is expected to inflict more human and physical damage than the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake of 1995. Given the region's character as a 'trading' economy, there is also a need to consider impacts on other regions. Based on currently available information, we estimate that damages could exceed 15 trillion yen (3% of GDP). -Kyohei Morita and Yuichiro Nagai, Barclays Capital

　　此次日本东北部发生地震，受灾最严重的四个县分别是岩手县、宫城县，福岛县和茨城县。这一地区在日本经济中所占的比重大约为6%-7%。相比1995年的阪神大地震，此次地震会造成更多的人员和财产损失。由于这一地区的特点是以贸易经济为主，也有必要考虑地震对其它地区的影响。根据现有信息，我们估计损失可能超过15万亿日圆（约占日本GDP的3％）。──Kyohei Morita 和Yuichiro Nagai,巴克莱资本

　　Economic output from the affected region plus its connections to the rest of the economy have darkened the outlook. The cost of rebuilding collides with low levels of insurance coverage, and may require tax increases or much higher government deficit spending. In addition, power supplies will be limited, affecting the broader economy, with transportation services disrupted to the north of Tokyo, and tourism likely to be drastically affected for months. -Ron Napier, SBC Global

　　受灾地区的经济产出以及受灾地区和日本其它地区的经济联系令经济前景一片黯淡。重建成本加上保险赔付的比例较低可能会令政府增加税收或扩大赤字支出。此外，电力供应将受到限制，这将影响更大范围内的经济，东京以北的公共交通中断，旅游业在未来数月可能会深受影响。──Ron Napier,SBC Global

　　We've been asked by some customers whether Japan was a major seller of Treasury securities specifically in response to the Kobe earthquake in 1995. We don't know definitively, but the TIC data does suggest some selling - presumably by insurers - in response to that earthquake, but not for several months after the event, which occurred in January of 1995. -Nancy Vanden Houten, Stone & McCarthy Research

　　一直有客户问我们，当年为了应对1995年1月发生的阪神大地震，日本政府是否卖出了大量美国国债。我们并不确切了解，但据美国财政部国际资本流动（Treasury International Capital，TIC）数据显示为了应对那次地震，的确有人在卖出美国国债，据推测是保险公司，但并没有延续数月之久。──Nancy Vanden Houten,Stone & McCarthy Research