One of the biggest impacts of the end of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program may be felt in the commodities markets, where the injection of liquidity has helped send prices of metals, grains and energy to multiyear highs.

　　美联储（Federal Reserve）债券购买计划的结束会带来诸多影响，其中大宗商品市场可能会受到最大的冲击。流动性的注入已经将金属、粮食和能源的价格推至多年来的新高。

　　Commodities are especially sensitive to Fed policies, as prices are driven by inflation expectations, which are closely tied to the Fed's every move. Also, these markets are much smaller in size than stocks and bonds, suggesting they tend to swing more in response to changing policies.

　　大宗商品对美联储的政策尤其敏感，因为价格受到通胀预期的驱动，而通胀预期又与美联储的每一步动作紧密相关。另外，这些市场的规模远远小于股市和债市，因而它们往往会随着政策变动产生更大的波动。

　　As the Fed prepares to end its $600 billion bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, or QE2, some money managers are preparing their own withdrawal.

　　在美联储准备结束其6000亿美元的债券购买计划（也就是QE2，量化宽松计划）之时，一些基金经理也正为撤退做准备。

　　London-based Diapason Commodities Management SA, which oversees $9 billion in assets, is likely to cut back on some exposure to more-cyclical commodities, such as energy and base metals, if it thinks risk is increasing, said Sean Corrigan, Diapason's chief investment strategist.

　　Getty Images今年二月，芝加哥交易所的玉米期权交易员。大宗商品价格受通胀预期的驱动，而通胀预期又与美联储的每一步动作紧密相关。伦敦大宗商品管理公司Diapason Commodities Management SA首席投资策略师柯瑞根（Sean Corrigan）说，若公司认为风险在增加，也许会降低某些周期性更强的大宗商品的敞口，比如能源和基本金属。该公司管理着90亿美元的资产。

　　"We have had a one-way run for six months. We can't be too greedy," Corrigan said.

　　柯瑞根说，我们已经赚了六个月，不能太贪心。

　　Commodities under management, including mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, have seen a record inflow of $48.8 billion since the Fed's QE2 announcement last August, with total managed assets in commodities hitting $412 billion by the end of March, according to Barclays Capital.

　　根据巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）统计，自美联储去年8月开始实施第二轮量化宽松政策以来，共同基金和交易所买卖基金等机构的大宗商品持仓流入资金达到创纪录的488亿美元，截止三月底，大宗商品持仓总额达到4120亿美元。

　　Given how profitable and crowded the markets are, "once the liquidation begins, you don't know how far it will run," he said.

　　柯瑞根说，考虑到大宗商品市场的高额利润和拥挤程度，一旦投资者开始套现了结，你不知道会发展到什么程度。

　　But other investors are betting that the Fed will be late in raising interest rates in order not to damp the nascent economic recovery. With cheap money circulating in the system, commodities still will be sought after as a risky asset.

　　不过还有些投资者押注，为避免冲击刚刚起步的经济复苏，美联储会推迟加息动作。在廉价资金在系统中流动的情况下，大宗商品仍会被视为风险资产而大受欢迎。

　　"Let's face it, they are still going to go for a very low-interest-rate environment, which still creates big inflationary concerns," said Robert Holroyd, director of Commodity Strategies AG, a $200 million commodity fund.

　　规模达2亿美元的大宗商品基金Commodity Strategies AG的负责人赫尔罗伊德（Robert Holroyd）说，让我们面对事实吧，他们依然会选择利率极低的环境，仍会引发大的通胀担忧。

　　To get an indication of how heady markets have gotten, gold has notched five consecutive records, closing on Thursday above $1,500 a troy ounce for the first time. Silver is up 49% this year, closing in on its all-time nominal high hit in 1980. Both cotton and coffee prices soared to record levels this year. Gasoline prices have jumped 35% this year.

　　想了解市场到了多么冲动的地步，看看黄金就知道了。金价已经连续五次打破纪录，上周四首次收于每金衡制盎司1500美元以上。银价今年上涨49%，名义价格收于1980年以来的新高。棉花和咖啡的价格今年均飙升至创纪录水平。汽油价格今年涨了35%。

　　Robust demand from emerging markets also is likely to provide some support for commodities.

　　新兴市场旺盛的需求也可能会为大宗商品提供部分支持。

　　But commodities also are likely to face headwinds in emerging markets, where inflation is running high. As China and India become determined to combat inflation, "it is dangerous to be long commodities," said Russell Napier, global macro strategist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets. "Many investors have probably misread the political risk associated with commodities."

　　不过大宗商品也可能会面临新兴市场的逆风，那里的通胀正日益高涨。里昂证券亚太区市场（CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets)全球宏观策略师纳皮尔（Russell Napier）说，随着中国和印度开始决心对抗通胀，长期持有大宗商品是危险的；许多投资者可能已经误读了大宗商品带来的政治风险。

　　Instead of playing defensively, some investors look at the Fed's exit as an opportunity. At Liberty Trading Group, a Tampa, Fla., options seller, there has been an influx of new investment money over the past few months.

　　一些投资者未采取守势，反而将美联储退出QE2当做一个机会。过去几个月内，佛罗里达州期权卖方Liberty Trading Group一直有新的投资资金注入。

　　Liberty is selling calls, a bet that prices will fall, on behalf of its clients in gold, silver and coffee, which have all seen big rallies.

　　Liberty代表其黄金、白银和咖啡客户卖出买权，押注价格会下跌，这些商品一直都在大幅涨价。

　　"Our clients are coming to us as they want to get ready for QE2 ending, thinking that this rally has probably run its course," said James Cordier, the founder. -By Carolyn Cui, The Wall Street Journal; carolyn.cui@wsj.com

　　Liberty 创始人科尔迪尔（James Cordier）说，客户找我们是想为第二轮量化宽松结束做准备，他们认为这种全线大涨的局面可能已经快到头了。