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Ceilings and floors are not always structurally sound. In China’s banking system, for example, interest rates on deposits are subject to a ceiling, which limits the income of savers. Lending rates, meanwhile, are subject to a floor, which leads to inefficient investment and excess capacity. Both need to change, urgently.
上下限的结构并不总是合理的。例如中国的银行系统对存款利率设置了上限,从而限制了储户的收入;对贷款利率设置了下限,从而导致了投资效率的低下与产能的过剩。两者都需要改革,而且迫在眉睫。
Under its reform minded governor Zhou Xiaochuan, the People’s Bank of China has consistently stressed the need to embrace more market-oriented rates of interest. Between 2004 and 2008, the PBoC made some progress, scrapping ceilings on lending and floors on deposits, while encouraging new entrants and new instruments in less highly-regulated money markets. Yet the pace of liberalisation has stalled since the global financial crisis – perhaps as a result of clashes with less market-friendly factions at the National Development and Reform Commission. Sunday’s response to March’s higher-than-expected inflation number – another increase in banks’ reserve requirement ratio – confirmed that China would rather adjust the quantity of money in the system, rather than the price of it. Since January 2010, when the current tightening cycle began, adjustments to the RRR have outnumbered deposit rate and lending rate increases by two to one.
在锐意改革的行长周小川的领导下,中国央行(PBoC)一贯强调需要推进利率的市场化改革。2004年至2008年间,中国央行取得了一些进展,取消了贷款利率上限与存款利率下限,同时鼓励向监管不那么严格的货币市场引进新的机构,推出新的工具。不过,全球金融危机爆发后,自由化的脚步停了下来——也许是与国家发改委(NDRC)对市场不那么友好的派系发生冲突的结果。面对3月份高出预期的通胀数字,中国央行再次上调银行存款准备金率的应对措施证实,中国更愿意调整银行系统中货币的数量,而不是价格。自本轮紧缩周期于2010年1月启动以来,存款准备金率的调整次数,已经是存贷款利率上调次数的两倍还多。
Allowing deposit rates to float upwards could temper inflation by absorbing excess cash, and might also gradually enable the market to price in expectations of interest-rate rises. Liberalising lending rates, meanwhile, would allow banks to compete on their ability to price risk, rather than on their ability to skirt a benchmark. China’s banking sector has grown very rapidly: the ten biggest lenders expanded their total loan books by an average of 63 percent between December 2008 and December 2010. Now it needs to grow intelligently. Fixed loan-deposit spreads have given banks an “iron rice bowl.” It is time to take it away.
允许存款利率上浮可以吸收过剩的资金,从而缓和通胀;此外,它还可以让市场逐渐能够将加息预期体现到价格中来。与此同时,放开贷款利率将让银行能够就风险定价能力、而不是围绕基准浮动的能力展开竞争。中国的银行业发展得非常迅速:从2008年12月至2010年12月,中国最大的10家银行贷款总额平均增长了63%。现在它需要的是有智慧的成长。固定的存贷利差给了银行一个“铁饭碗”。现在该给它拿走了。
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