China is underreporting the amount of steel it makes by about 40m tonnes a year – roughly the amount made by Germany – according to a new analysis that provides insights into the recent high prices for the main raw material used by the world steel industry.

　　一项新的分析指出，中国低报了钢产量，低报幅度达到每年约4000万吨，与德国的钢产量大致相当。对于世界钢铁业主要原材料近期的高价，这项分析提供了洞见。

　　Detective work by Meps, a UK steel consultancy, indicates that Chinese steel output last year was 672m tonnes – nearly half of the world output – as opposed to the 627m tonnes reported by the Chinese authorities.

　　英国钢铁咨询公司Meps的研究分析表明，中国去年的钢产量达到6.72亿吨——接近世界总产量的一半——而不是中国官方报告的6.27亿吨。

　　Behind the underreporting, according to Peter Fish, Meps managing director, is that plants that Beijing would like to shut down because they are not economical and produce too much pollution have stayed open to meet local demand.

　　Meps的董事总经理彼得?菲什(Peter Fish)表示，这种低报背后的隐情是，那些因经济性不好或造成太多污染而被北京方面勒令关闭的钢厂仍然开着，以满足当地需求。

　　Regional data-gathering bodies around China have disguised the fact the mills are still churning out metal by declaring that output is lower than is the case. According to Mr Fish’s analysis, the higher-than-reported steel production creates extra demand for iron ore – the main constituent of steel – and has been one factor keeping prices of the commodity at unprecedented highs, eating into steelmakers’ profit margins globally.

　　中国各地的区域数据收集机构通过低报实际产量，掩盖了那些钢厂仍在生产钢材的事实。根据菲什的分析，高于报告数据的实际钢产量，带来了对铁矿石这种主要原料的额外需求，成为推动铁矿石价格保持在空前高位的因素之一，影响了全球钢材制造商的利润率。

　　Since January 2009, iron ore prices have more than doubled, in contrast to a 50 percent rise in benchmark steel prices.

　　自2009年1月以来，铁矿石价格已上涨一倍多，与此形成反差的是，基准钢材价格只上涨了50%。

　　Terance Ko, a steel analyst at the Hatch Consulting group in China, said: “Mr Fish’s numbers seem entirely plausible and is in line with our own estimate.”

　　赫氏咨询(Hatch Consulting)在中国的钢铁业分析师Terance Ko表示：“菲什先生得出的数字是完全可信的，与我们自己的估算吻合。”

　　Xu Zhongbo, analyst with Beijing Metal Consulting, said steel output figures emanating from China were routinely adjusted to fit stated government policy.

　　北京梅塔科咨询公司(Beijing Metal Consulting)的分析师许中波表示，中国的钢产量数据常常被调整，以便与政府公布的政策相符。

　　“If the country is curbing capacity … then [a specific province] will report lower steel production. If the government’s demand to limit production is not too great, the province will report the actual figure,” Mr Xu said. The high prices for iron ore have benefited the three big producers – Rio Tinto, Vale and BHP Billiton. One of the big three – which asked not to be named – said: “We agree steel production last year was higher than the statistics suggest. From an iron ore company perspective, our marketing people expect these things to happen.”

　　“如果国家在遏制产能……那么（某个省）将报告较低的钢产量。如果政府对限产的要求不是特别强烈，该省将报告实际产量，”许中波表示。铁矿石价格高企，惠及了三大生产商——力拓(Rio Tinto)、淡水河谷(Vale)以及必和必拓(BHP Billiton)。这三大生产商之一（要求匿名）表示：“我们对去年的钢产量要高于统计数据表示认同。从一家铁矿石企业的视角看，这种情况在本公司营销部门人员的意料之中。”

　　The World Steel Association – the Brussels-based trade group for the industry – relies on official Chinese figures for its own widely followed data. The WSA said there might be “a small amount of underreporting” from China but it was “nothing like” what Mr Fish has reported.

　　总部位于布鲁塞尔的行业组织——世界钢铁协会(World Steel Association)依靠中国提供的官方数据来编制其广受关注的数据。该组织表示，中国的数据可能存在“少量低报”，但“根本不像”菲什所报告的那么严重。

　　JFE – the big Japanese steel producer – said it recognised there might be a gap between reported and actual production from China. “We believe that as the country continues to reorganise its steel industry to allow for closure of outmoded plants, the gap … will become smaller.”

　　日本大型钢铁企业JFE表示，该公司意识到中国报告的钢产量和实际的钢产量可能有差异。“我们相信，随着中国继续重组其钢铁业，使那些陈旧过时的钢厂得到关闭，这种差异……将会缩小。”